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May 2018 Observations & Discussions

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aiannone
jimv45
SoulSingMG
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billg315
ak926
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sroc4
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rb924119
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weatherwatchermom
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Post by amugs Sat May 19, 2018 11:14 pm

MJO phase 2 = Tropical Cyclonic Activity in Western Carribean. Great call Rb and Sroc on this 
Also Memorial Day may be looking unettled. The GFS is showing the Tropical LP coming up the eastern seaboard. Timing is still variation but nonetheless it keeps showing this.
I have a paper that is 110 pages long that is a very interesting read for its work on solar and it's effects on weather, patterns, food production and human population.

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Post by amugs Sat May 19, 2018 11:21 pm

Nino incoming for next winter. Sub surface waters support this to. As Sroc stated in a tremendous write up above Modoki El Nino 

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Img_2065

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Post by rb924119 Sun May 20, 2018 3:13 pm

I'm starting to see some pretty stout resemblances to Harvey from last year with the development of our upcoming tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Not to the same strength, but the stagnation and duration; very similar evolution showing up here from what I can recall of last year and only at quick glances of modeling, but maybe somebody can confirm or dismiss this observation.

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Post by rb924119 Mon May 21, 2018 10:07 pm

AND HERE. WE. GOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Img_1513

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Post by sroc4 Thu May 24, 2018 4:16 pm

A distinct low level center of circulation can be seen over land now.  (within the yellow circle).  NHC has very high probability for trop development within the next 2-5days, however, only slow development is likely once the LLC moves out over open waters of the GOM over the next 2days.   There is currently very strong wind shear(blue arrows) west to east to the north of the system that will likely inhibit any rapid intensification.  Unless the shear drops off significantly anything beyond a TD or weak TS is not likely. Even that may not develop if the wind shear does not diminish some.  Notice the higher cloud tops are well east of the LLC as a result of the shear(black circle).
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Gom_0510
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 GOES16-GM-02-1000x1000
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 GOES16-GM-08-1000x1000
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Two_atl_2d0
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Two_atl_5d1

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Post by sroc4 Thu May 24, 2018 4:20 pm

Another look at the current wind shear

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Wg8shr

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Post by amugs Thu May 24, 2018 8:20 pm

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_apcpn_neus_15

Hope this is wrong cause Beaches of NJ are going to be not good for Sun and Mon

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11

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Post by amugs Thu May 24, 2018 8:21 pm

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Two_atl_5d0

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Post by rb924119 Thu May 24, 2018 8:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:Another look at the current wind shear

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Wg8shr

Give it time, Scott. It has to couple and slide beneath the upper-level low. Once it does that it will begin to intensify pretty steadily I think. I think a high-end TS or low-end Cat-1 will be achievable here. Right now it is still out ahead of the mid-level feature which is why it's sheared right now - essentially it's developing like a typical mid-latitude cyclone (same processes involved right now). Once it gets beneath the mid- and upper-level low(s), the shear will back off significantly, and the low-level center can then begin the W.I.S.H.E. feedback and warm/intensify it from the bottom up.

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Post by sroc4 Fri May 25, 2018 8:13 am

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Another look at the current wind shear

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Wg8shr

Give it time, Scott. It has to couple and slide beneath the upper-level low. Once it does that it will begin to intensify pretty steadily I think. I think a high-end TS or low-end Cat-1 will be achievable here. Right now it is still out ahead of the mid-level feature which is why it's sheared right now - essentially it's developing like a typical mid-latitude cyclone (same processes involved right now). Once it gets beneath the mid- and upper-level low(s), the shear will back off significantly, and the low-level center can then begin the W.I.S.H.E. feedback and warm/intensify it from the bottom up.

Trust me I understand what your saying.  The LLC is still over land; however, looking at the shear forecasts to the systems N over the next 48-72 hrs combined with the dry air that remains to the west of the system, I am highly skeptical that we ever achieve high end TS/Cat one status.  If we do its very short lived and likely never becomes much of an issue for land with the exception of a very small area around the center as it is likely very short lived unless the center stalls just off the Gulf coast.  There are some differences with the upper level trough over the GOM now between the GFS and Euro regarding its orientation over the next 72hrs.  If it remains neutral; certainly positive like it is now, then shear will prevent any real good organization and coupling of the mid/upper level centers with the LLC; however if it tilts neg then maybe.  Well see just how organized this system can really get, but for now I am skeptical.  I think IF we see true tropical characteristics and organization beyond a weak TS/Depression status we need to wait until it reaches at least 25-26N lat to do so.  Well see.

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Post by sroc4 Fri May 25, 2018 10:52 am

Looks like several LLC this morning on visible sat imagery

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 GOES16-GM-02-1000x1000

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by sroc4 Fri May 25, 2018 12:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:Looks like several LLC this morning on visible sat imagery

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 GOES16-GM-02-1000x1000

They named it this morning. We have "Sub Tropical Storm" Alberto.

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Two_atl_0d0

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by sroc4 Fri May 25, 2018 12:32 pm

Personally I think thats ridiculous and a bit premature, because clearly there is a LLC well south of where they have the center positioned meaning that there are at least two LLCs, and it is still highly disorganized.  
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 152536_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Albert10
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 GOES16-GM-02-1000x1000

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri May 25, 2018 4:10 pm

wow hit 90* ....i love the sun...but can I ask how many days till winter???? Laughing
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri May 25, 2018 4:11 pm

sroc4 wrote:Personally I think thats ridiculous and a bit premature, because clearly there is a LLC well south of where they have the center positioned meaning that there are at least two LLCs, and it is still highly disorganized.  
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 152536_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Albert10
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 GOES16-GM-02-1000x1000

what happened to the like button? like
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Post by frank 638 Fri May 25, 2018 4:30 pm

88 degrees with sunny skies. Tomorrow I am heading out to the beach even though the water temperature is still cold but I am jumping in.

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Post by sroc4 Fri May 25, 2018 5:45 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Personally I think thats ridiculous and a bit premature, because clearly there is a LLC well south of where they have the center positioned meaning that there are at least two LLCs, and it is still highly disorganized.  
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 152536_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Albert10
May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 GOES16-GM-02-1000x1000

what happened to the like button? like

I dont know?? Frank must have done something to it because I didnt.

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Post by frank 638 Sat May 26, 2018 5:33 pm

Perfect day to be at the beach even though the water was cold. Now we have lots of lightning and thunder early high of 90 degrees

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat May 26, 2018 8:01 pm

Hi of 90.2° here, totally sucked being on call with all my gear on, 2 calls back to back, 2nd one we were outside. Was drinking so much water I thought I would float away!

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun May 27, 2018 2:28 pm

And today, 61° and cool breeze, still socked in with clouds. Thankfully had no plans today, so I guess I'll cook!

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Post by Dtone Sun May 27, 2018 8:34 pm

Catastrophic flash flooding again in Ellicott City, MD and around Baltomore area in general.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/27/flash-flood-emergency-in-ellicott-city-md-as-thunderstorms-unload-excessive-rainfall/?utm_term=.a08232039aff

Picked a hell of a day to visit Ellicott City, MD. This is real.

A post shared by Craig Patrick (@giantsofdiving) on




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Post by sroc4 Mon May 28, 2018 6:32 am

OMG dtone! That is unbelievable

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon May 28, 2018 1:12 pm

Dtone wrote:Catastrophic flash flooding again in Ellicott City, MD and around Baltomore area in general.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/27/flash-flood-emergency-in-ellicott-city-md-as-thunderstorms-unload-excessive-rainfall/?utm_term=.a08232039aff

Picked a hell of a day to visit Ellicott City, MD. This is real.

A post shared by Craig Patrick (@giantsofdiving) on




saw that yesterday absolutely horrifying..feel so bad..they just recovered from the last flash flood
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon May 28, 2018 1:13 pm

we had 2.5 inches of rain yesterday...
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue May 29, 2018 9:12 am

Just a few more days of May left. Time is flyin'

June looks like it wants to get off to a below normal start. A lot of cut-off low's showing up in the long range under an NAO block.

Weather in general in our area has been uneventful for my liking. Looks like a rainy weekend ahead. Why have our weekends been timed with crap weather??

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Post by rb924119 Tue May 29, 2018 9:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Just a few more days of May left. Time is flyin'

June looks like it wants to get off to a below normal start. A lot of cut-off low's showing up in the long range under an NAO block.

Weather in general in our area has been uneventful for my liking. Looks like a rainy weekend ahead. Why have our weekends been timed with crap weather??

Happy belated Birthday you old timer!!!! Hahaha hope your day was well spent!! Your post is music to my ears regarding the extended; I'm done with this heat, give me winter again!!! Frank, you're the man to get that accomplished......I beg of you, please strike a deal with Mother Nature lol or as you also said, at least make it more interesting to pass the time lmao

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed May 30, 2018 9:32 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Just a few more days of May left. Time is flyin'

June looks like it wants to get off to a below normal start. A lot of cut-off low's showing up in the long range under an NAO block.

Weather in general in our area has been uneventful for my liking. Looks like a rainy weekend ahead. Why have our weekends been timed with crap weather??

Happy belated Birthday you old timer!!!! Hahaha hope your day was well spent!! Your post is music to my ears regarding the extended; I'm done with this heat, give me winter again!!! Frank, you're the man to get that accomplished......I beg of you, please strike a deal with Mother Nature lol or as you also said, at least make it more interesting to pass the time lmao

Already miss the cold, eh?

Here is the cut-off low this weekend:

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_17'

Then next week the trough offshore links with another dropping down from Canada:

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_26

And mid-June the trough is still there

May 2018 Observations & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_64

Obviously below normal in June is not "cold" but it will not be the scorching heat nor humid air mass we've seen. The west is going to BAKE.


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