NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2018 Hurricane Season

+26
Vinnydula
Math23x7
bobjohnsonforthehall
larryrock72
oldtimer
Grselig
billg315
Joe Snow
nutleyblizzard
Radz
Frank_Wx
jwalsh
Sanchize06
Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
rb924119
algae888
frank 638
skinsfan1177
amugs
GreyBeard
SoulSingMG
Quietace
Snow88
sroc4
jmanley32
30 posters

Page 11 of 18 Previous  1 ... 7 ... 10, 11, 12 ... 14 ... 18  Next

Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:18 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

Of course he is, minimalist sorry.
As I see it
No clue how the GFS is pushing this storm into a 594db ridge  that aint happening sorry makes no meteorological sense. Push the storm west by how much is anyone's guess 75 -1 50 miles?
Don't like this run - not the pattern set up it is depicting - surface is ...........off by my eye.
Just again my opin to the pattern here.
I agree 100%. That ridge means business. My current thinking is Florence will make it just offshore the coastline before feeling the effects of the ridge and start to meander. That would be a bad thing with the circulation remaining in that bathwater. The big question that remains is where on the coastline does this occur the outer banks, delmarva, or long Island? Time will tell.

So  you think she never has any diurect impacts over land? basically a beach crusher, rain and wind not a issue, if so its not a concern here but i will worry for those living on the water along coast.

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

Of course he is, minimalist sorry.
As I see it
No clue how the GFS is pushing this storm into a 594db ridge  that aint happening sorry makes no meteorological sense. Push the storm west by how much is anyone's guess 75 -1 50 miles?
Don't like this run - not the pattern set up it is depicting - surface is ...........off by my eye.
Just again my opin to the pattern here.
I agree 100%. That ridge means business. My current thinking is Florence will make it just offshore the coastline before feeling the effects of the ridge and start to meander. That would be a bad thing with the circulation remaining in that bathwater. The big question that remains is where on the coastline does this occur the outer banks, delmarva, or long Island? Time will tell.

So  you think she never has any diurect impacts over land? basically a beach crusher, rain and wind not a issue, if so its not a concern here but i will worry for those living on the water along coast.
I never said that. How about a cat 3 sitting 50 miles off Sandy Hook N.J? You'll feel it. An extreme example but certainly not out of the realm of possibilities with a pig ridge like that.

nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Join date : 2014-01-30

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by hyde345 Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:30 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

I guess he will lean towards a landfall solution when the 00Z comes further west.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:33 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

Of course he is, minimalist sorry.
As I see it
No clue how the GFS is pushing this storm into a 594db ridge  that aint happening sorry makes no meteorological sense. Push the storm west by how much is anyone's guess 75 -1 50 miles?
Don't like this run - not the pattern set up it is depicting - surface is ...........off by my eye.
Just again my opin to the pattern here.
I agree 100%. That ridge means business. My current thinking is Florence will make it just offshore the coastline before feeling the effects of the ridge and start to meander. That would be a bad thing with the circulation remaining in that bathwater. The big question that remains is where on the coastline does this occur the outer banks, delmarva, or long Island? Time will tell.

So  you think she never has any diurect impacts over land? basically a beach crusher, rain and wind not a issue, if so its not a concern here but i will worry for those living on the water along coast.
I never said that. How about a cat 3 sitting 50 miles off Sandy Hook N.J? You'll feel it. An extreme example but certainly not out of the realm of possibilities with a pig ridge like that.
Ahh, thought you meant like 300-400 miles offshore, GFS was pretty far offshore, though the run 06z 12z? that had a direct landfall on LI was the craziest I have seen yet. 50 miles offshore of sandy hook, that would be a sight, and imagine if she stalled for like a day, that would be crazy, and I am assuming she is going to expand a great amount so wind field will be much much bigger, the area of hurricane winds right now is like a sliver.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:18 pm

Where is bernie, periscope that he said NYC landfall on the GFS and then turned the camera and said dont panic, that sounds funny I wanna see it but his last 2 do not cover that GFS run.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:42 pm

18z GEFS still OTS, but further west than 12z

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 06L_gefs_18z

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 06L_gefs_12z

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:44 pm

12zvs18z2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 A1c99210

Further west


Last edited by skinsfan1177 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:44 pm

I actually kinda like bastardi's crayon drawing of his idea for florence except IMO will be a cat 3 as it approaches EC or even stays one.

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Dmcgtt10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:44 pm

The latest from the NHC

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 30a1c210


Last edited by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:48 pm

Tropical Storm Florence now, winds at 70 mph

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:48 pm

0z ICON has landfall in NC and rides the edge of the coast up toward NJ

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Icon_mslp_pcpn_eus_54

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Icon_mslp_pcpn_eus_60

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:51 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:0z ICON has landfall in NC and rides the edge of the coast up toward NJ

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Icon_mslp_pcpn_eus_54

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Icon_mslp_pcpn_eus_60
Thats very bad, hope thats not too intense a word, and if extrapolated out would go right into NYC looks like and north doesnt appear to drive at all east, barely offshore up the coast IMO would be a worst case or near worst case with slower weakening and major impacts from all aspects. Long way to go, 00z GFS is running now. Seems like intensity has been drawn out weaker for longer now per nhc.  Now not a major until Tuesday.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:54 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:0z ICON has landfall in NC and rides the edge of the coast up toward NJ

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Icon_mslp_pcpn_eus_54

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Icon_mslp_pcpn_eus_60
Thats very bad, hope thats not too intense a word, would it continue north from there on that run? Seems like intensity has been drawn out weaker for longer now.  Now not a major until Tuesday.

Hard to tell if it would go north or east, but I think it would get a little further north. Definitely a flooding issue with a Cat 2 or so in that position.

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:03 am

At hr 96, GFS another tick south, even from 18z, strong ridge building in already, again would think this comes close to land, but we'll see. Didn't happen at 18z

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:04 am

Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:0z ICON has landfall in NC and rides the edge of the coast up toward NJ

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Icon_mslp_pcpn_eus_54

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Icon_mslp_pcpn_eus_60
Thats very bad, hope thats not too intense a word, would it continue north from there on that run? Seems like intensity has been drawn out weaker for longer now.  Now not a major until Tuesday.

Hard to tell if it would go north or east, but I think it would get a little further north. Definitely a flooding issue with a Cat 2 or so in that position.
From last frame looks like it just continues to use the coast line as a track, but is this model to even be taken at all seriously, I mean I guess its about as plausible as the others ATM.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:12 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:0z ICON has landfall in NC and rides the edge of the coast up toward NJ

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Icon_mslp_pcpn_eus_54

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Icon_mslp_pcpn_eus_60
Thats very bad, hope thats not too intense a word, would it continue north from there on that run? Seems like intensity has been drawn out weaker for longer now.  Now not a major until Tuesday.

Hard to tell if it would go north or east, but I think it would get a little further north. Definitely a flooding issue with a Cat 2 or so in that position.
From last frame looks like it just continues to use the coast line as a track, but is this model to even be taken at all seriously, I mean I guess its about as plausible as the others ATM.

Well it definitely have support from the CMC, has landfall in the same spot lol

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:14 am

GFS coming in closer to the coast so far at hr 138, this makes more sense given the ridge

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:24 am

GFS still insists on keeping this storm offshore. Still have a hard time believing a ridge that strong doesn't force that more west. I still think the GFS is overdoing the intensity to an extent that's allowing it to go into the ridge and stay further east, I'll guess we'll see

Sanchize06
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:24 am

actually its about the same bit further south and it looks to recurve very similar, i def do not think this is anywhere near final solution, we had a hit on NYC, we had ones much further east, there are prolly many other outcomes in the next several days as we know.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:16 am

Interesting euro Cmc and icon art make a landfall nc sc border and euro goes inland dissipates. Looks like 06z hrs is staying way south too. Maybe this storm will onlybeffect the South. But not buying one run as any kind of trend.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:21 am

jmanley32 wrote:Interesting euro Cmc and icon art make a landfall nc sc border and euro goes inland dissipates. Looks like 06z hrs is staying way south too. Maybe this storm will onlybeffect the South. But not buying one run as any kind of trend.
Wow. The 6z GFS crushes the outer banks. You would think with that ridge Flo will ride up the coastline this run.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:22 am

O6 gfs is bad hr. 156 landfall in Virginia and it seems they have all evened out on intensity too kik strong cat 2.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:23 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Interesting euro Cmc and icon art make a landfall nc sc border and euro goes inland dissipates. Looks like 06z hrs is staying way south too. Maybe this storm will onlybeffect the South. But not buying one run as any kind of trend.
Wow. The 6z GFS crushes the outer banks. You would think with that ridge Flo will ride up the coastline this run.
she does go up the coast a bit waiting see rest run.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:25 am

972mb headed up Chesapeake nj starting get big impacts lets see if she holds on. Interesting all models now no recurve and a nc or so landfall. Notice Bermuda is getting on Noreen side of nhc cone so its def staying way south.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:29 am

Not good at all we get direct cat 1 or strong ts impacts as she crosses jersey toward NYC at he 180. Major rain flooding and wind. Not sure how beaches effected from that direction.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:30 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:29 am

That's a nasty run for the metro area. Center goes over Philly and we end up in the right quadrant of the storm.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:31 am

7 to 10 inches rain hurricane force winds prolly cat 1 or strong ts for metro. Hey ill take a day off work lol schools would def be closed. But its just one run models are far from b done flip flopping I'm sure
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 11 Empty Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 11 of 18 Previous  1 ... 7 ... 10, 11, 12 ... 14 ... 18  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum