2018 Hurricane Season

It's not Florence. The main lower-level circulation of Florence was taken northeastward last week. What this system is, is a trough split from the upper-level feature/front that picked Florence's circulation up.

rb924119 wrote:It's not Florence. The main lower-level circulation of Florence was taken northeastward last week. What this system is, is a trough split from the upper-level feature/front that picked Florence's circulation up.

h huh could fooled me as it was there the day she left us.

Looks like models are sniffing out a potential EC threat in 8-10 days or so coming from around cuba. Thats where a lot of our storms that have hit have come from ie. sandy for one. Just something to watch for now, it may well leave the models. But I think there is still at least one threat left as there is a small spike in activity i believe around the middle of October.

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like models are sniffing out a potential EC threat in 8-10 days or so coming from around cuba.  Thats where a lot of our storms that have hit have come from ie. sandy for one.  Just something to watch for now, it may well leave the models.  But I think there is still at least one threat left as there is a small spike in activity i believe around the middle of October.

And why would this be Jman??  BTW I agree with you.  Here is a hint.....

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like models are sniffing out a potential EC threat in 8-10 days or so coming from around cuba.  Thats where a lot of our storms that have hit have come from ie. sandy for one.  Just something to watch for now, it may well leave the models.  But I think there is still at least one threat left as there is a small spike in activity i believe around the middle of October.

And why would this be Jman??  BTW I agree with you.  Here is a hint.....

lol yeah I guess I stated the reason then said a thought .

Euro has caught up with a full system now off ec of Florida in 10 days. We wait now

jmanley32 wrote:Euro has caught up with a full system now off ec of Florida in 10 days. We wait now

I heard that shear done in Carribean looks bad

Looks like tnhat system in the western carribean will be a FL panhandle threat, all models are on same page even euro. GFS obviously the most aggressive with intensity. Okay moving onto fall noreasters and snow please lol

So I have been off for about a day and I see we have td 14. What's interesting is it looks like it could still be a ts coming off the coast just south or around jersey on Thursday! Yes Scott saw ur post in long range but since nhc has this potentially effecting us as a actual ts shouldn't it be discussed here? I will say this anymore 4 plus inch rain storms is gonna drive me nuts lol

jmanley32 wrote:So I have been off for about a day and I see we have td 14. What's interesting is it looks like it could still be a ts coming off the coast just south or around jersey on Thursday! Yes Scott saw ur post in long range but since nhc has this potentially effecting us as a actual ts shouldn't it be discussed here? I will say this anymore 4 plus inch rain storms is gonna drive me nuts lol

Yup Jon absolutely. I originally posted in the LR thread because it was more about throwing the idea out there for our area for later in the week, but in the shorter term the Gulf coast needs to pay VERY close attention to this system as models have been trending stronger and stronger with this system. The euro, one of the more reliable ones, although has its limitations as they all do, has trended from a mere TD affecting the coast 2 days ago to a TS yesterday to now a hurricane with MSLP in the 950's on last nights 00z. GFS agrees having a 950's MLSP system. HWRF wants to take it into the 930's. Even the NHC now has it as a hurricane in its forecast. Shear and dry air however may still be a limiting factor, but there is a chance at some rapid development once it gets going. We'll see what 12z today brings.

Holy Euro! Cat 2 at the benchmark, if this was winter we would all be praying for N and W lol, this has gotten massively closer than last run.
 yeah scott, it def has trended worse for FL, and its amazing it doesnt lose much steam traversing over land before it exits again.



Look at the jump NW from the 00z!! Yikes!

Oh and we have 50mph Michael, 999mb.

Does this have a shot at being a formidable threat or will the front be too soon to allow it to get too close?

NHC now expects a Cat 2 Michael at landfall. That escalated quickly!

Euro ensembles are interesting, I love how wxbell, lets you run each 51 runs full 240 hrs. Anyways here are a few of the worse senarios for our area, I also noted many of them have him cross FL and exit the east coast of FL and not riding up the coast and over the area or OTS. Most of them do bring rain and wind up here but its the north part of the storm so that would help limit things a bit and the direction he is going.

Michael already up to 60mph, gaining strength fast, sroc maybe that shear isnt that bad after all.

Governor Rick Scott has declared a State of Emergency for Florida.

HWRF brings here a hundred miles or so offshore of NYC, not reliable that far out but still ST to watch.

EURO SAYS HELLO!!! Would be a nor'easter or post tropical


GFS the new one FV3


This the HWRF - pretty serious look to me if it verifies


Folks in the Panhandle adn along the west coast need to pay close attention as do the mid atlantic and Cape region

Agreed. Will keep an eye on this one HWRF looks scary to me, even if it is post-tropical.

NHC still has it as tropical coming off the midatlantic, doesnt go post until it passes cape cod. HWRF gives us a pretry major storm. He is 70mph now, will be a hurricane shortly.

HWRF moves further north, effects entire area 988mb, FL landfall at 927mb?!

6z HWRF

Sanchize06 wrote:6z HWRF

Oh look another deluge, at least it'll be moving pretty fast, will have at least some wind this time if verifies which isnt good with the ground basically water.

MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND...
4:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 8
Location: 20.6°N 85.5°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Since he looks like a fast mover I am going with a general 1-2" of rain for the area, but I fully recognize the entity could very easily drop 2"+ of rain over coastal sections if he takes the right path. We'll see how models look come 12z tomorrow.

Pretty crazy how he went from a tropical storm landfall projection to now a possible Cat 2. Lookout panhandle...