Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:13 am

MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND...
4:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 8
Location: 20.6°N 85.5°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:56 am

Since he looks like a fast mover I am going with a general 1-2" of rain for the area, but I fully recognize the entity could very easily drop 2"+ of rain over coastal sections if he takes the right path. We'll see how models look come 12z tomorrow.

Pretty crazy how he went from a tropical storm landfall projection to now a possible Cat 2. Lookout panhandle...

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:24 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Since he looks like a fast mover I am going with a general 1-2" of rain for the area, but I fully recognize the entity could very easily drop 2"+ of rain over coastal sections if he takes the right path. We'll see how models look come 12z tomorrow.

Pretty crazy how he went from a tropical storm landfall projection to now a possible Cat 2. Lookout panhandle...

CAT 3 now predicted at landfall

by **amugs** Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Since he looks like a fast mover I am going with a general 1-2" of rain for the area, but I fully recognize the entity could very easily drop 2"+ of rain over coastal sections if he takes the right path. We'll see how models look come 12z tomorrow.

Pretty crazy how he went from a tropical storm landfall projection to now a possible Cat 2. Lookout panhandle...

JB saying Major and is NHC at this time CAT 3 - conditions are ripening for my son to be this........

Dr. Rick Knabb
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@DrRickKnabb
44m44 minutes ago
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#Michael could be one of the worst hurricanes to ever strike the Florida Big Bend and Florida Panhandle region. We only have today and Tuesday to complete life-saving preparations at the coast and inland. Evacuate as instructed from storm surge, and shelter smart from wind!

Coming from the head of NHC is pretty telling if yuo ask me.

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 Do_tzciX0AA77Jw

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 Do_tzciX0AA77Jw

by **amugs** Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:07 pm

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 Do_uH0NXoAAs1Cu

HWRF continues Michael's RI, as it heads N, posing a potentially dangerous scenario of catching people off guard to wind and water hazards in the FL Panhandle and N FL if they are not attentive to latest forecasts.

by **amugs** Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:12 pm

He aint messing around - at least WTH???

Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com
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Global models whiffed on this rapid intensification -- indeed had it much later in 36-48 hours and slower. Since Michael is having no trouble with wind shear and over 30°C ocean water (and deep warmth), still anticipating maximum intensity of at least Category 4 (winds).

by **amugs** Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:14 pm

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 Do744FqXsAEkkKH

Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi
Years with tropical cyclones coming up into the gulf in October and having impact are signal for cold December in many cases. Why? MJO phases that help with tropical cyclones can show up again in December and they are cold phases for US at that time of the year

5:30 PM - Oct 7, 2018 · State College, PA
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26 people are talking about this

BOOOYAHHHHH!!!!!!!!!! Very Happy

by **sroc4** Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:43 pm

I said it yesterday we would have to watch for rapid intensification based on the trends in the modeling. Lets hope the 12z 3k NAM isnt right... 901mb on approach..... affraid

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 Mike_310

by **sroc4** Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:44 pm

(I know it wont be 901mb)

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:50 pm

Hey guys..when will we have an idea of how this will effect our area..husband traveling into Newark from business trip late Thur night...

by **sroc4** Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:08 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey guys..when will we have an idea of how this will effect our area..husband traveling into Newark from business trip late Thur night...

Still some timing differences with the system itself, but it does appear that the initial frontal passage will be afternoon into late Thursday. The question is then where is Mike after that. Latest Euro brings it south of the area by early Sat; whereas the GFS brings it in Friday. Exact track still unclear but trends have been to take it to our south leaving direct impacts just to our south as well. But still way to early in the game to make any definitive statements.

Does the WAR really erode as quickly as is currently modeled? SST off the coast are still AN and the past the WAR has been under modeled a bit. The longer the ridge holds the longer the Northerly steering component hold before the approaching mean trough from the west coast shifts the steering current more westerly.

How slow its moving north will also play a role. The longer it takes to gain lat the more likely the approaching trough from the west coast has time to erode the WAR enough and shift the steering currents.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:10 pm

Wow at least cat 4?! That escalated quickly, jesus def FL not go be prepared. Will there be sig effects in the palm coast area on the east side of FL? My in laws first year there, I know its hitting the panhandle area but withpotential to be a cat 4 I would imagine it could effect the eastern side too, but for them I hope not, they are in a new house in a complex and those arent that strong.

I have a feeling this may come further north, as the WAR as stated above has been under modeled, we will see, we need to wait until at least tomorrow and also see how fast he loses strength over land.

Scott 901mb!! I know unlikely to verify but thats nuts, from a meer TS as was a day ago.

by **rb924119** Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:43 pm

I can see how this system tracks further northwest than currently progged by some guidance (EURO/NAM/etc.) taking it southeast of the Delmarva. With a rapidly developing tropical cyclone so close by to an already amplified eastern U.S. ridge, anomalously warm SSTs in the western Atlantic, and general Northern Hemispheric synoptic pattern that supports a strong eastern U.S. ridge bolstered by the MJO Phase 1, this should allow the remnant circulation of Michael to trend further northwestward in future model runs in my opinion, such that it passes either over or very nearby our region in the end. The role of the cyclone should be further aid in enhancing the eastern ridge via its intense diabatic outflow and feedback effects positively interacting with the other factors outlined above. Just my two cents lol

by mwilli5783 Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:52 pm

what does WAR stand 4?

by **sroc4** Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:55 pm

mwilli5783 wrote:what does WAR stand 4?

Western Atlantic Ridge

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:08 pm

rb924119 wrote:I can see how this system tracks further northwest than currently progged by some guidance (EURO/NAM/etc.) taking it southeast of the Delmarva. With a rapidly developing tropical cyclone so close by to an already amplified eastern U.S. ridge, anomalously warm SSTs in the western Atlantic, and general Northern Hemispheric synoptic pattern that supports a strong eastern U.S. ridge bolstered by the MJO Phase 1, this should allow the remnant circulation of Michael to trend further northwestward in future model runs in my opinion, such that it passes either over or very nearby our region in the end. The role of the cyclone should be further aid in enhancing the eastern ridge via its intense diabatic outflow and feedback effects positively interacting with the other factors outlined above. Just my two cents lol

So is there a wind threat potential with this or mainly rain? Some EPS members have very low pressures as it comes off the coast somewhere south of here or even right over, the ground is so saturated all we wpould need is strong TS force winds to cause alot of downed trees, There have been trees downed here meerly by weakened roots and no wind, which I have rarely seen.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:09 pm

Cool loop! Look how fast he is intensifying and a eye is starting I think.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

by **amugs** Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:06 pm

Lets remember the mechanisms at play this time of year with a frontal passage and a storm that will veer off the coast into anomalously warm (which can fuel or retool him) waters - the combination will as Franks rated most likely produce rainfall amounts the 1-2" range for a good portion IF the current progged tracks come to fruition. If he wanders more west and his speed is a tick faster than as Scott said he'll gain latitude come more North than east until he reaches the area. I do say that off the Delmarva or Cape May SNJ is not out of the question and neither is off teh VA Capes off to Cape Cod.

I have told all my peeps at the shore to watch this for possible impacts Thursday - Friday timeframe just to be on the safe side.
Latest from Dr.Maue
2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 DpAkF0JXUAAt2nx

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 DpAkF0JXUAAt2nx

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:03 am

Heh 3km now gets mike down to 892mb. That's just crazy talk...I hope.

by **amugs** Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:26 am

jmanley32 wrote:Heh 3km now gets mike down to 892mb. That's just crazy talk...I hope.

Don't use the NAM's for a tropical system - they dont have the dynamics inputted for such systems from what Dr. Ryan Maue has stated.

by **amugs** Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:37 am

The cone - shifted South for our region

Timing is everything
2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 093811_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

by **sroc4** Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:44 am

7am advisory now has him as a Cat 2 max sustained winds at 100mph. Current recon in storm headed towards the NE quad. I personally expect to see additional increases with this current recon data as just looking at current sat imagery it really appears to be getting organized quite nicely. Also look at microwave imagery, notice in the very end of the loop the inner band structure abruptly organizes around the core as seen by the tight reverse C of red colors

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 Recon_AF306-1014A-MICHAEL

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 Recon_AF306-1014A-MICHAEL

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 14 Last24hrs

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:01 am

Michael on the cusp of Cat 3 status. 965mb>110mph.

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:53 pm

Yup 110mph. I still wouldn't let our guard down yet for at least heavy rain. Shifts in cone happen a lot.

by **amugs** Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:17 pm

Oh and Ventrice tweeted out as did JB say that we ain't done yet in the Western Carribean - another trop cyclone disturbance in teh 6-10 day heading into teh Gulf of Mexico.

by **Quietace** Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:15 pm

I'll let you guys know how this goes the next 24-36 hours.

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:01 pm

Quietace wrote:I'll let you guys know how this goes the next 24-36 hours.

oh boy...we forgot you are down in Florida and not up north..take care stay safe!

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