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FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

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FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Empty Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:29 pm

Friday morning already moving into va versus gfs stall.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:30 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board! pirat

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Cfbe5310
who is mg? Ill take that track as bad as that would b though.
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FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Empty Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:31 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all
how is it diff than hrs in the track looked pretty similar to me except made full landfall. Euro is also super fast the 24 he jump is like 500 miles plus.
How is an NC/SC landfall similar to something missing OBX to the east. The FV3, which has a much better handle on the intensity of the storm is almost identical to the Euro. It is clear the GFS has a poleward bias. I am still pretty confident it will landfall between say Charleston and OBX.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:32 pm

12z Euro exact track

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 94557E25-EC5B-4FB1-8414-3AA5A6548F4C.png.95a74d4104cf95cfeb9485ecc6761aac

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:33 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all
how is it diff than hrs in the track looked pretty similar to me except made full landfall. Euro is also super fast the 24 he jump is like 500 miles plus.
How is an NC/SC landfall similar to something missing OBX to the east. The FV3, which has a much better handle on the intensity of the storm is almost identical to the Euro. It is clear the GFS has a poleward bias. I am still pretty confident it will landfall between say Charleston and OBX.
I didn't get that far in run before I posted I should waited. It is quite diff and it even gets further north as heads inland.
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Post by Quietace Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:35 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all
.

The correction, not the actual run. Sorry, should have been more specific.
Well, it was fully expected the EC suite would correct north some, given the majority of the south leaning members on the EPS were the ones with weaker initial condition perturbations on the MSLP, which given the intensity this morning ~999mb, was too weak and would be to far south given the low-level steering flow. However, the EC op has been very consistent, in which the GFS op has not, where a small 75 miles shift is not significant in a 5-6 day forecast. What is significant is the variations between the GFS and its FV3 counterpart, where when using the same resolution the difference is much greater. Given the upper-level pattern, I still feel this goes into SC/NC.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:36 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z Euro exact track

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 94557E25-EC5B-4FB1-8414-3AA5A6548F4C.png.95a74d4104cf95cfeb9485ecc6761aac
huh? You mean u think that's exactly what she's go do? That's a incomplete statement sorry I don't understand.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:43 pm

Jman that's the track the 12z euro just showed. WxBell plotted it out

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:45 pm

Nvm retract my statement she does out well south of the area the block is super strong.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Jman that's the track the 12z euro just showed. WxBell plotted it out

Image isn't showing, Frank.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:46 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Jman that's the track the 12z euro just showed. WxBell plotted it out
there's no image showing on my phone that would be why I'm confused lol
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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:47 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all
.

The correction, not the actual run. Sorry, should have been more specific.
Well, it was fully expected the EC suite would correct north some, given the majority of the south leaning members on the EPS were the ones with weaker initial condition perturbations on the MSLP, which given the intensity this morning ~999mb, was too weak and would be to far south given the low-level steering flow. However, the EC op has been very consistent, in which the GFS op has not, where a small 75 miles shift is not significant in a 5-6 day forecast. What is significant is the variations between the GFS and its FV3 counterpart, where when using the same resolution the difference is much greater. Given the upper-level pattern, I still feel this goes into SC/NC.

The EURO has been no more consistent than the GFS lol the two most consistent models have been the ICON and the UKMET.

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Post by jwalsh Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:48 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Jman that's the track the 12z euro just showed. WxBell plotted it out

Image isn't showing, Frank.

This should work:
FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 B8200810
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Post by Quietace Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:54 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all
.

The correction, not the actual run. Sorry, should have been more specific.
Well, it was fully expected the EC suite would correct north some, given the majority of the south leaning members on the EPS were the ones with weaker initial condition perturbations on the MSLP, which given the intensity this morning ~999mb, was too weak and would be to far south given the low-level steering flow. However, the EC op has been very consistent, in which the GFS op has not, where a small 75 miles shift is not significant in a 5-6 day forecast. What is significant is the variations between the GFS and its FV3 counterpart, where when using the same resolution the difference is much greater. Given the upper-level pattern, I still feel this goes into SC/NC.

The EURO has been no more consistent than the GFS lol the two most consistent models have been the ICON and the UKMET.
Yeah...

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board! pirat

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Cfbe5310
who is mg? Ill take that track as bad as that would b though.

ME!!! Lol
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Post by Sanchize06 Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:07 pm

Well the 12z runs definitely strengthen Florence a little bit sooner than previous runs. That allows it to get a little further north than what was being shown yesterday. There's still 5 days of trending to go and whether that ridge will be as strong as modeled is still a big question

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Post by larryrock72 Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:15 pm

I'm with mg just maybe a bit east off our coast. Close enough to watch no direct impacts. In agreement it skirts obx and finds a way ne off the coast. Still very close for concern. I think we have our solution by Monday depending on the blocking H.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:15 pm

Take always thus far is that we clearly don’t have the final soln. Of course statistically speaking throwing a dart between s Carolina and OBX your more likely to be correct without having been a part of the discussion thus far but a track north of that is still not out of the question yet. The other thing that isn’t discussed, which I’m shocked actually, is that the euro stall for 3+ days in the same spot and drops epic Harvey like rains. And yes that is GFs esq in that it did the same thing only further east. There are still plenty of details yet to be ironed out. Avoid the I know where she’s making landfall traps until she gets ramped up. Because she will be rapidly bombing for the next 2 days. Also recon data will be available for tonight’s 00z runs. Thus far not so much. There is a reason the NHC come of uncertainty hasn’t reached the coast yet

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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:16 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board! pirat

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Cfbe5310
who is mg? Ill take that track as bad as that would b though.

ME!!! Lol

If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:41 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board! pirat

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Cfbe5310
who is mg? Ill take that track as bad as that would b though.

ME!!! Lol

If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).
So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size.  Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:44 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Take always thus far is that we clearly don’t have the final soln. Of course statistically speaking throwing a dart between s Carolina and OBX your more likely to be correct without having been a part of the discussion thus far but a track north of that is still not out of the question yet. The other thing that isn’t discussed, which I’m shocked actually, is that the euro stall for 3+ days in the same spot and drops epic Harvey like rains. And yes that is GFs esq in that it did the same thing only further east. There are still plenty of details yet to be ironed out. Avoid the I know where she’s making landfall traps until she gets ramped up. Because she will be rapidly bombing for the next 2 days. Also recon data will be available for tonight’s 00z runs. Thus far not so much. There is a reason the NHC come of uncertainty hasn’t reached the coast yet
What are the chances of that rain being dropped up here? The GFS showed it yesterday, that I could do without, it showed like 10-15 inches, have not seen euro totals for carolina and VA, do you have a map?
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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board! pirat

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Cfbe5310
who is mg? Ill take that track as bad as that would b though.

ME!!! Lol

If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).
So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size.  Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.

It's tough to draw on mobile, but as *ROUGH ESTIMATE*, my approximate thinking is in green. Please note I think it will only achieve a latitude of about Cape May before kicking east, but to try to get that accurate with my fat fingers on a small screen is a fool's errand aha also, once it landfalls, it CREEPS northward before accelerating back out over the open water as it runs beacon into the block.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Img_1610

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Post by rb924119 Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:00 pm

But yes, I absolutely still feel that substantial SECONDARY impacts are likely for much of our area, although NO DIRECT LANDFALL.

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Post by Quietace Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:01 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board! pirat

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Cfbe5310
who is mg? Ill take that track as bad as that would b though.

ME!!! Lol

If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).
So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size.  Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.

It's tough to draw on mobile, but as *ROUGH ESTIMATE*, my approximate thinking is in green. Please note I think it will only achieve a latitude of about Cape May before kicking east, but to try to get that accurate with my fat fingers on a small screen is a fool's errand aha also, once it landfalls, it CREEPS northward before accelerating back out over the open water as it runs beacon into the block.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Img_1610
I definitely agree with this just shifted a little more to the SW and a little less latitude. The "creep" is the next big forecast challenge, especially with the rains in the east this summer and whether or not a PRE sets up before landfall.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:09 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board! pirat

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Cfbe5310
who is mg? Ill take that track as bad as that would b though.

ME!!! Lol

If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).
So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size.  Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.

It's tough to draw on mobile, but as *ROUGH ESTIMATE*, my approximate thinking is in green. Please note I think it will only achieve a latitude of about Cape May before kicking east, but to try to get that accurate with my fat fingers on a small screen is a fool's errand aha also, once it landfalls, it CREEPS northward before accelerating back out over the open water as it runs beacon into the block.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 7 Img_1610
I definitely agree with this just shifted a little more to the SW and a little less latitude. The "creep" is the next big forecast challenge, especially with the rains in the east this summer and whether or not a PRE sets up before landfall.
Well whatever the end result is we def, have had one that has defied a lot of climo and taught me some new stuff, so thats something to take away.
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