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FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:59 am

Florence upgraded to Cat 2 status. Pressure down to 969mb. Winds are 105mph moving WNW at 9mph.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:26 am

GFS at least brings some remnant tropical rain up this way. EURO is pretty far south still. Does not look like a big deal for us. That said, if anyone has family in SC/NC they will be dealing with a powerful system.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:30 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Florence upgraded to Cat 2 status. Pressure down to 969mb. Winds are 105mph moving WNW at 9mph.

As of 5am this am:

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 090119_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Looking at sat imagery, and the environmental conditions out ahead of her and the fact that she still has yet to reach 60w tells me we see at least Cat 3 status within 24hrs or less and we see this cone shift north by this time tomorrow. We really are entering the final turn to the finish line here. I also still believe that there is still a chance at a glancing blow or no direct landfall with this system. If she makes landfall this is the area I believe it occurs.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 Impact10
FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 09101810

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:10 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS at least brings some remnant tropical rain up this way. EURO is pretty far south still. Does not look like a big deal for us. That said, if anyone has family in SC/NC they will be dealing with a powerful system.

Yes I do have family and friends that live on the Bouge Sound by Emerald Isle NC...where my parents plan to move next year...
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:26 am

A new recon mission is on its way. Not sure when that data would be incorporated however. Looks like could be a cat 3 by this afternoon. Possibly even by lunchtime.

Not sure I am understanding the Euro making a more Southerly turn given the strength on the hurricane and also that the Euro seems to slightly erode the WAR a bit.

If this thing makes landfall and I were a betting man, I would say somewhere between Hatteras and the extreme Southern Delmarva.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:31 am

She is a beaut

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

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Post by larryrock72 Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:44 am

Anyone have any models on the blocking H. Is it suppose to make it as far south as projected or will it be further north? Thanks!!!! At work.

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Post by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:57 am

Cat 3 (115 mph) and 962 mb at 11 am advisory
FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 0de79d10FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 A7c4a610
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:03 am

I think the move to the WNW has begun.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-50-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined
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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:16 am

FWIW the NAM shows the track I think will ultimately take...maybe a little further west

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 Namconus_z500_vort_eus_47
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FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 Namconus_z500_vort_eus_52
FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 Namconus_z500_vort_eus_53

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:34 am

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 Image_20
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Post by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:39 am

Was just about to post this. 12z ICON has her stalling near OBX like most models, but then it creeps north. At hr 138 of 180.
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Post by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:41 am

Wow. Barely moving over Delmarva at hour 156
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Post by rb924119 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:47 am

@jwalsh wrote:
Was just about to post this. 12z ICON has her stalling near OBX like most models, but then it creeps north. At hr 138 of 180.

Synoptically, this makes sense to me. LOCK. IT. IN. lol I wonder what the other global stuff are going to show today, and I'm especially curious to see if the UKMET remains in its recent agreement with the GFS/ICON, and what the EURO does, since it is increasingly becoming the outlier.

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:54 am

Am hearing recon found a 945 mb in the NE quadrant. If so that is a fair amount lower than what was posted as of 11:00 AM. This could be a cat 4 pretty soon if it isn't already. Woof.
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Post by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:59 am

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 Beae2810
FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 2c051b10
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Post by rb924119 Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:00 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Am hearing recon found a 945 mb in the NE quadrant. If so that is a fair amount lower than what was posted as of 11:00 AM. This could be a cat 4 pretty soon if it isn't already. Woof.

Confirmed.

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Post by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:02 pm

NHC just issued an update statement at noon: Cat 4 (130 mph), 946 mb
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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:03 pm

GFS is east

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:05 pm

@sroc4 wrote:GFS is east
FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 13 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:11 pm

Holy sh*t she's back to a 4

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).
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Post by oldtimer Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:21 pm

Stoc. GFS east. Does mean more toward the coast??

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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:40 pm

@oldtimer wrote:Stoc. GFS east.  Does mean more toward the coast??

No it means her track turns north before she makes a direct landfall. As per the GFS verbatim she then stalls east of Cape Hatteras and meanders before drifting back towards the coast

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:42 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@oldtimer wrote:Stoc. GFS east.  Does mean more toward the coast??

No it means her track turns north before she makes a direct landfall.  As per the GFS verbatim she then stalls east of Cape Hatteras and meanders before drifting back towards the coast

She then makes landfall near OBX and moves inland. It still does not affect our region at all.

Euro should be interesting

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:46 pm

It appears to me she may have taken a more northwest track
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