FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

By rude awakening you mean something bad for SC? My daughter goes to school down there so I've been following this storm with particular interest.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Wow.  Euro run is crazy.  Makes it about 75miles N of 00z's landfall into NC but then stalls just on the coast line for a day; then drifts S/SW into SC then Ga.  It aint ova folks.  There is a ridge developing to the west of Flo as she reaches the coast right as the ridge over the Atlantic is breaking down.  Steering flow to the N and NW compliments of the Atlantic ridge weakens while the new ridge to the west builds generating a S/SW component.  We are def not finished.  Sum of all vectors.  Crazy

So this means we are def out of any effects and now GA and FL are back in or are u basically saying the models still dont got a clue and the next run could be north up the coast for all we know?

I don't think jman this comes up the coast

figured I pray for all those down south. See you all if and when next threat comes. But once again it just doesn't happen up here gotta remember I think unless we have a cone over us for a long time like nc has then we can worry. I dunno if we will have anymore threats this year. I heard the cabo Verde season is go shut off and nowhere else is really primed.

hard not to at least be amazed by and appreciate such a wild act of nature. And she looks great now. Maybe cat 5 at 5pm?

Hey weatherwatchmom. Now it looks like northern NC would actually be ok with only 2-3” of rain and 40 mph wind while SC gets it worse k. Hope it works out

Winds back up to 140 mph, pressure down to 945mb

Ummmmm....

https://nypost.com/2018/09/11/amazing-aerial-footage-shows-the-eye-of-hurricane-florence/

Really quite fascinating view of the eye of Florence from a recon flight

-Damian

Probably going to catch hell for this, but I'm sick and don't care lol The 18z NAM's current depiction makes the most sense to me given how things have evolved, along with parts of my initial ideas. If I was to make a forecast, I would keep my same landfall spot as I provided what will be a week ago tomorrow, but adjust the second "leg" basis the following:

Even if there is no initial landfall, I believe that Florence would drift into the coast, ride it northward for a (relatively) short distance, then drift inland (with erratic, but generally westward and then northwestward motion). The reason for this is dynamical. Yes, I understand that the ridging is strong and the storm cannot simply cut through it. While the strength of the ridge was not something that I ever personally felt that I underestimated given all of the sources of latent heat energy available to feed back, I (apparently) underestimated its impact along its southern periphery, which is why I initially thought that it would reach the Delmarva before it had its northward progression halted. Why? Because the body of the anomaly is centered so far north and west compared to climatology, I assumed with a storm that has a fair forward speed would be able to penetrate a little more deeply before losing momentum. As of now, that appears to have been an incorrect assumption.

However, my thinking for the above correction is not based on that, but on the dynamics of the wind field of the storm itself. With a storm/winds this powerful, even IF the eye does not make a technical landfall during the initial northwestward progression, as long as it's sufficiently close to the coast such that the stronger wind velocities  within the CDO/eye wall can begin interacting with the coastline, this will begin to create mesoscale pressure imbalances between the north and south sides of the storm. Think about it - in the northeastern and northwestern quadrants the wind will be forced to begin converging due to the natural effects of friction. However, on the south side, the air will actually begin to diverge as the wind can again accelerate over the open water as it comes from the southwestern through the southeastern quadrant. Where the air is converging at the surface, it will induce a local trough of lower pressure and be forced to rise, whereas the diverging air to the south will induce locally higher pressure as air sinks to replace it. Now, again, this will likely occur (in my opinion, of course), even if the eye is still offshore, and will not persist indefinitely as the storm spins down. Secondarily, this will also begin working to help elongate the central circulation and disrupt its uniform nature. Once this process begins, it will quickly work to begin disrupting the central circulation, as storms of this magnitude can only attain such strength because the conditions are perfect and allow it to. Once those conditions are altered, the storm has only one way to go, down in intensity. Now, please do not misunderstand me here. I am not saying it will go from 60-0 immediately. All I am saying is that I do not foresee the storm MAINTAINING its initial intensity, or taking as long to spin down like some of the models show.

As the system begins to decay from the inside, the wind imbalances will then start acting to try to draw the system away from land (think of vectors!), but due to the anomalous ridging out ahead of it and weakness in the ridging to its west, and is then why I think it gets "bullied" inland and decays in North Carolina. Similarly, this also why I do not agree with the sudden depictions of the storm traversing further south with a (secondary?) landfall in South Carolina. I could be totally off on this, but hopefully it's some food for thought, and if nothing else, I hope you enjoyed the read lol

SoulSingMG wrote:Ummmmm....  

This is not florence, this goes in other thread soul, not even gonna pay any attention to that, kinda looks like Joaquin if it tracked like that and due north, LOL nop way.

Edit: west-central ATLANTIC trough

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Ummmmm....  

This is not florence, this goes in other thread soul, not even gonna pay any attention to that, kinda looks like Joaquin if it tracked like that and due north, LOL nop way.

Could interact with what's left of Florence or who knows, her in tact if she never moves inland. What a weird ridiculous setup.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Ummmmm....  

This is not florence, this goes in other thread soul, not even gonna pay any attention to that, kinda looks like Joaquin if it tracked like that and due north, LOL nop way.

Could interact with what's left of Florence or who knows, her in tact if she never moves inland. What a weird ridiculous setup.

I could see the circulation of florence pulling this thing up towards her into the US.

Are models now depicting a cat 1 or 2 instead of 4/5

sroc4 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Are models now depicting a cat 1 or 2 instead of 4/5

Not that I’m aware of

Have not seen that anywhere, MAYBE will weaken to a 3 at landfall but thats about it, IF that.

just went on intellicast looks 2 me like florence is making a slight turn to the north near 70 degrees w and the south part looks like wind shear affecting

mwilli5783 wrote:just went on intellicast looks 2 me like florence is making a slight turn to the north near 70 degrees w and the south part looks like wind shear affecting

It doesn't look to organized as it was earlier
It foes appear to have a North tick

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Wow.  Euro run is crazy.  Makes it about 75miles N of 00z's landfall into NC but then stalls just on the coast line for a day; then drifts S/SW into SC then Ga.  It aint ova folks.  There is a ridge developing to the west of Flo as she reaches the coast right as the ridge over the Atlantic is breaking down.  Steering flow to the N and NW compliments of the Atlantic ridge weakens while the new ridge to the west builds generating a S/SW component.  We are def not finished.  Sum of all vectors.  Crazy

Levi Cowen has a fantastic video laying it all out.  He says it way more eloquently than I can.  Please take a listen.  

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Good video. Thanks for sharing. But even deader for us. Just hope by some miracle loss of life and damage is limited.

florence is making a very slow turn to the north(probably a wobble)when u see it from a wide range it looks like it's turning north

mwilli5783 wrote:florence is making a very slow turn to the north(probably a wobble)when u see it from a wide range it looks like it's turning north

probably a wobble but wouldn't that be crazy if she decided go on a b line for the midatlantic I stead...

jmanley32 wrote:

mwilli5783 wrote:florence is making a very slow turn to the north(probably a wobble)when u see it from a wide range it looks like it's turning north

probably a wobble but wouldn't that be crazy if she decided go on a b line for the midatlantic I stead...

I don't know why, maybe its cranky, but I just can't totally throw in the towel on this one. My head says "lol you are wishcasting against literally all models" but my gut says "dammit there is something there!"

From Cowan's blog, the ridge on the Atlantic is weakening. That was putting pressure for northward trend. With no ridge, nothing exists to push Flo north. Can a hurricane create its path?

Grselig wrote:From Cowan's blog, the ridge on the Atlantic is weakening.  That was putting pressure for  northward trend.  With no ridge, nothing exists to push Flo north. Can a hurricane create its path?

Irma did and I am sure there are many others that went agaist the cone a few days out.

Actually it cleanrly looks like fo has turned more NW... cannopt confirm that though or if its just a long wobble.

jmanley32 wrote:Actually it cleanrly looks like fo has turned more NW... cannopt confirm that though or if its just a long wobble.

NW, W, NW is what I see - still on a path for the southern outer banks barring a change in direction.