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Long Range Thread 17.0

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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:58 am

@algae888 wrote:I have to admit I am not liking where we are going in the long range. if you take a look at the ensembles the ridge over Alaska shifts West towards the aleutians cold air is then dumped into the southwest and a ridge forms in the east past 10 days. That's a very nina like pattern. Considering the SOI is positive and has been positive for a while I think it's going to take some time to get into El Nino climate with The Ridge out west trough in the East and Aleutian low. It doesn't mean we can't get us any snow in the next few weeks but it's going to have to be perfect timing. If you think about it Nino climate is usually backloaded So This Is Not Unusual and most Winter forecast that I've read had the best month to be February I just can't stand the wait but it looks like we may have to thank God for that snow storm in november or we would be very frustrated right now.

I don't buy into this just yet can't trust models past 10 days
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:58 am

@algae888 wrote:I have to admit I am not liking where we are going in the long range. if you take a look at the ensembles the ridge over Alaska shifts West towards the aleutians cold air is then dumped into the southwest and a ridge forms in the east past 10 days. That's a very nina like pattern. Considering the SOI is positive and has been positive for a while I think it's going to take some time to get into El Nino climate with The Ridge out west trough in the East and Aleutian low. It doesn't mean we can't get us any snow in the next few weeks but it's going to have to be perfect timing. If you think about it Nino climate is usually backloaded So This Is Not Unusual and most Winter forecast that I've read had the best month to be February I just can't stand the wait but it looks like we may have to thank God for that snow storm in november or we would be very frustrated right now.

DO NOT take the long-range modeling verbatim. You have to look at where it's wrong and find the proper corrections. The models are going to struggle mightily beyond day 7-8 with the amount of fluxes and perturbations. The period we are in now was supposed to be a 7-10 day stretch of warmth......it's been cut to two, and those two are neither back to back nor horribly above normal lol Stay the course....TRUST THE PROCESS Wink

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Post by Guest Fri Dec 14, 2018 6:59 am

NWS not budging. Temps in the mid 40s and no mention of frozen precipitation the next 7 days

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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:49 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:I have to admit I am not liking where we are going in the long range. if you take a look at the ensembles the ridge over Alaska shifts West towards the aleutians cold air is then dumped into the southwest and a ridge forms in the east past 10 days. That's a very nina like pattern. Considering the SOI is positive and has been positive for a while I think it's going to take some time to get into El Nino climate with The Ridge out west trough in the East and Aleutian low. It doesn't mean we can't get us any snow in the next few weeks but it's going to have to be perfect timing. If you think about it Nino climate is usually backloaded So This Is Not Unusual and most Winter forecast that I've read had the best month to be February I just can't stand the wait but it looks like we may have to thank God for that snow storm in november or we would be very frustrated right now.

DO NOT take the long-range modeling verbatim. You have to look at where it's wrong and find the proper corrections. The models are going to struggle mightily beyond day 7-8 with the amount of fluxes and perturbations. The period we are in now was supposed to be a 7-10 day stretch of warmth......it's been cut to two, and those two are neither back to back nor horribly above normal lol Stay the course....TRUST THE PROCESS Wink

Al stay optimistic.  Like Ray said and you have several times this winter the LR forecasted "warm ups" and pattern has not once verified when compared to reality in both duration and intensity.  There is a huge shake up going on right now on the strat That I would imagine will have major effects on the ability for modeling to see clearly into the future since the models still are not very good at linking the strat changes and the anticipated response down at the tropospheric level.  Look at the drastic differences in ensembles between the EPS/GEFS/GEPS.  As Ive mentioned in prev discussion I expect a few chances for snow between the 20th-25th but its the period between 25th-1st that will define the shape of the new pattern heading into the first 2 weeks of Jan.  Much depends on exactly what happens on the strat level.  As I have also stated in prev discussion there is a chance that the results of a strat warming, esp if its only a disruption with displacement and not a split or complete wind reversal, such that the displacements end up in an unfavorable position for the NE CONUS.  Like my signature below states, optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic.  

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_40
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Gem-ens_z500a_nhem_41

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:30 am

Please talk about the possible snow on Monday in the December thread.

There is a lot to like in the long range. The Wave 1 warming event in the Stratosphere is still on track to bringing a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event around Christmas. Most likely, if an official SSWE does happen, it will be AFTER Christmas.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Fluxes

Check out that steep drop at 1hPa of mean zonal winds.

Here is 10 hPa - more and more GEFS members are showing a reversal

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 U_65N_10hpa_gefs

The Wave 1 warming/attack is significant. And there is a CHANCE a Wave 2, or complete split of the Strat PV, tries to follow. I would maintain low expectations of that happening for now, but it is in the cards.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Waves

Do not forget about the MJO. A very anomalous tropical wave is developing over the Indian Ocean and expected to travel east toward the dateline. Some models show this wave dissipating while others keep it active - causing the MJO to enter phases 5 and 6. This will also have direct impact on the warming event occurring in the Stratosphere.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:45 am

Great summary by John Homenuk (Earthlight) on the evolving pattern:

Posted this earlier in another thread, but my main idea moving forward here is that there is the potential for a short gain and a first down instead of a long passing gain to midfield. What I mean by that is that while the MJO traverses phases 4/5 and the stratosphere continues to favorably evolve, we could have to move the chains without going straight into the big pattern. There is some dissonance between the two, where the MJO in P4 supports a larger N Pacific ridge that moves toward Alaska and even parts of the Aleutians, while the Aleutian trough actually retrogrades and positions itself a bit further west. This acts to add some resistance to the -EPO blocking that could be developing during this time. In essence, it delays the excellent pattern by 4-7 days while still allowing the larger hemispheric forcings to go to work. By the time that propogation is complete, the MJO is now rounding into a more favorable state while the larger SSW is underway and high latitude blocking is now favored and not just encouraged.

We will have to see how things evolve in the next 48-72 hr, but my suspicion is above...that we may have to build gradually into the first week of January or so.



Whether you wish to ride the optimistic train, pessimistic train, or remain neutral what will happen is going to happen regardless.  If your looking for the "perfect pattern" then you will likely be let down as that is an extremely rare occurrence.  I am still quite adamant about at least "a few" legitimate chances for snow over the last 10 days of the calendar year.  Over the next 3-5 days I look to try and narrow that statement down.  Hopefully IF we get some snow the proverbial "fix" will relax many headed into the new year for I fear if another 14days pass with no white stuff certain individuals may lose their minds.  

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj72N3gx5_fAhWCdt8KHQP-DB8QjRx6BAgBEAU&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftenor

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:58 am

JH has retracted his initial beliefs and posts from about a week ago thus countering Isotherms calls. I love both but I will be more optimistic and trust Tom on this one who has called a transition around the 20th and then we ride into a much more favorable stage for winter through early/mid January. I am not looking at LR and the EPS has been god awful in the LR.

Ray says it best - TRUST THE PROCESS. You have massive perturbations over 60N happening an din the two spheres that will undoubtedly have affects on our sensible weather LR = Later Dec and more January.
MJO phase, Scan Block is a beast and once again will help in a two pronged attacked on the SPV and teh TPV if hey decouple - join in tandem then watch out 10x over - again if. Even he elongation as models have been and still are suggesting happen then we should do well. A split we roll the dice like 2011 and can get hurt.

One things we MUST see - massive AN snow pack in Greenland, CAN and Hudson Bay completely frozen over, LOW/NIL solar, active MJO phases, EAMT and AAM are all pointing towards good things for us IMO.

BTW the atmosphere is cooling tremendously as per NASA data since the summer and that propagates down over time. If something like 5% ever collapsed we'd be ice skating on Lake Okeechobee! If the whole thing collapsed we become cryogenitically frozen in seconds! Stark I know.

It's all in the process

My bday storm Scott as I said in the other board which we deliberated in a few posts is gonna bring the goods - I dont care if it a coating on the backside but if the NAM has an idea it gets interesting.

Low Solar reaches its peak in the next 3 years as currently modeled and can have affects for 20 year after or longer up to 30 some are theorizing based on historical data but time will tell.

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:04 am

FRom Isotehrm - tehre it is folks just after I post he posts on two other sites:

What does this mean sensible weather wise? I'm sensing quite a bit of worry regarding late December. There will be a transient momentum loss induced jet retraction which retrogrades the mean trough axis in the CONUS, but, concurrently, the AO/NAO domain geopotential heights will be more positive than currently progged.(= Negative indicy) And therefore, the SE-ridge will not be as robust as the EPS indicates 25-28th. The flow will go more zonal for a period of several days (if you want to call this "gradient", but I dislike the word) as the momentum flux alters.



Nothing else has changed regarding the transitional period 21st-22nd, with the pattern conducive for a threat thereafter.

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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Guest Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:07 am

Scott I am “offended” by your certain individuals comment

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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:22 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Please talk about the possible snow on Monday in the December thread.

There is a lot to like in the long range. The Wave 1 warming event in the Stratosphere is still on track to bringing a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event around Christmas. Most likely, if an official SSWE does happen, it will be AFTER Christmas.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Fluxes

Check out that steep drop at 1hPa of mean zonal winds.

Here is 10 hPa - more and more GEFS members are showing a reversal

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 U_65N_10hpa_gefs

The Wave 1 warming/attack is significant. And there is a CHANCE a Wave 2, or complete split of the Strat PV, tries to follow. I would maintain low expectations of that happening for now, but it is in the cards.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Waves

Do not forget about the MJO. A very anomalous tropical wave is developing over the Indian Ocean and expected to travel east toward the dateline. Some models show this wave dissipating while others keep it active - causing the MJO to enter phases 5 and 6. This will also have direct impact on the warming event occurring in the Stratosphere.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

As a follow-up to this post, here are some exciting things you should look for on upcoming model runs around the Christmas time period. Possibly as early as the 21st:

1. With Wave 1 warming happening in the Strat - look for the NAO and AO to go negative

2. Because the MJO will be in phases 4-5-6, look for the EPO to go positive and PNA to go negative for a period of time

3. The by the 29th or so, the EPO/PNA should be favorable again and by this time we'll have a clear indication on whether the SSWE actually came to fruition, if it was only a temporary Wave 1 warming event, or a possible Wave 2 (split) event.

So possible storm(s) between the 21st and 31st. I think at least one of them have the potential to drop significant snow over our area.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:25 pm

EURO tipped considerably to the NAM, although it isn’t quite ready to fully pull the trigger........yet. Don’t worry, though, because I expect it to Wink

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Post by Guest Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:35 pm

@rb924119 wrote:EURO tipped considerably to the NAM, although it isn’t quite ready to fully pull the trigger........yet. Don’t worry, though, because I expect it to Wink
Hey rb any chance the coast gets into some of this? Especially if we continue the recent southerly shifts in storms as the event draws closer!

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Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:42 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:EURO tipped considerably to the NAM, although it isn’t quite ready to fully pull the trigger........yet. Don’t worry, though, because I expect it to Wink
Hey rb any chance the coast gets into some of this?  Especially if we continue the recent southerly shifts in storms as the event draws closer!


Im moving this to the other thread.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:18 am

So next week looks hostile for snow development for the I-95 corridor but I see there is talk on forums about snow between Christmas and New Year's. I could see that happen. In fact, maybe Christmas night we could get a Christmas 2002 redux. I mean JB mentioned not too long ago that even in a warm pattern, you can get a decent snowstorm, much like Christmas 2002. The day after, me and my family went on our scheduled trip to a resort in the Poconos where they had over 2 feet of snow. This made conditions ripe for snowmobiling, which we did while we were there.

And while the drive there on the morning of the 26th wasn't too bad, my mother was very concerned the night of the 25th as the snow was coming down hard. She was like: "The one time I don't want a white Christmas, we get one"

I am expecting Christmas 2018 to produce here only because it's the one time I don't want it to. Why? Because our family has plans to fly to Disney World the evening of the 25th and we would be in Orlando until the 30th. Of course the snow is going to wreck our plans, through either a long flight delay or a cancellation. And even if that doesn't happen, we will be in Florida while NYC gets a Godzilla that I miss out on. Or it happens on the 30th and our flight back gets cancelled, messing up our New Year's Plans.

Bottom line, the 25th to 30th looks interesting weatherwise for the Northeast.

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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:07 am

All overnight ensemble guidance have now lost the negative EPO which would be our cold air source and instead have a trough over Alaska and the West Coast it's actually trending in the wrong way I know everybody on here seems optimistic about this time. I think things will align up but I think we have to wait till we get into January
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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:09 am

We've had a good cold pattern for about four or five weeks now since early November so a relaxation of two to four weeks is not unheard of as the atmosphere reshuffles once the trough gets into Alaska it's hard to move that one out just going by past history and that's not the spot where we want to see lower Heights
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Post by Guest Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:23 am

Al I am currently watching TWC. Not the biggest fan but they are harping on a “well above average” next few weeks because of this same ridge your posting about. This week looks to be in the 50s by Thursday with soaking rain into next weekend and continued warmth afterwards. I hope Franks scroll and our LR crew is correct but so far this season things have gone VERY POORLY and I’m sensing we’re headed for some major disappointment if the NWS and TWC are correct

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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:34 am

syosnow94 wrote:Al I am currently watching TWC. Not the biggest fan but they are harping on a “well above average” next few weeks because of this same ridge your posting about.  This week looks to be in the 50s by Thursday with soaking rain into next weekend and continued warmth afterwards. I hope Franks scroll and our LR crew is correct but so far this season things have gone VERY POORLY and I’m sensing we’re headed for some major disappointment if the NWS and TWC are correct
James the last six weeks have really been impressive for cold and even snow it could have been more impressive for snow if that southern system would have reached us and we would have been well above normal and then well content with a couple of week moderation / relaxation until things get going again in January it's just unfortunate that we didn't see any more snow during this time. But we couldn't ask for anything more the last four to six weeks
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:19 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Please talk about the possible snow on Monday in the December thread.

There is a lot to like in the long range. The Wave 1 warming event in the Stratosphere is still on track to bringing a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event around Christmas. Most likely, if an official SSWE does happen, it will be AFTER Christmas.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Fluxes

Check out that steep drop at 1hPa of mean zonal winds.

Here is 10 hPa - more and more GEFS members are showing a reversal

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 U_65N_10hpa_gefs

The Wave 1 warming/attack is significant. And there is a CHANCE a Wave 2, or complete split of the Strat PV, tries to follow. I would maintain low expectations of that happening for now, but it is in the cards.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Waves

Do not forget about the MJO. A very anomalous tropical wave is developing over the Indian Ocean and expected to travel east toward the dateline. Some models show this wave dissipating while others keep it active - causing the MJO to enter phases 5 and 6. This will also have direct impact on the warming event occurring in the Stratosphere.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 22 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

As a follow-up to this post, here are some exciting things you should look for on upcoming model runs around the Christmas time period. Possibly as early as the 21st:

1. With Wave 1 warming happening in the Strat - look for the NAO and AO to go negative

2. Because the MJO will be in phases 4-5-6, look for the EPO to go positive and PNA to go negative for a period of time

3. The by the 29th or so, the EPO/PNA should be favorable again and by this time we'll have a clear indication on whether the SSWE actually came to fruition, if it was only a temporary Wave 1 warming event, or a possible Wave 2 (split) event.

So possible storm(s) between the 21st and 31st. I think at least one of them have the potential to drop significant snow over our area.

Another update:

The MJO forecast shown here will verify. The MJO is expected to go into phases 4 and 5 which actually equates to above normal temps for our area. However, the positive feedback into the Stratosphere is the bigger story - where significant warming will happen leading to a complete pattern change to colder and stormy weather for our area. Between Xmas and New Years remains on track, but I am more inclined to say New Years is when the effects of the Stratosphere work its way into our area. While it will be stormy around Xmas, I'm not sure we'll have the cold air. But we will see. Anything before the 25th is expected to be rain.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:21 pm

I'll say that with all the cold air we've had its been frustrating not having storms along with it. Dry and cold is not fun, especially when it's mixed in with some rainy days. It's just how the pattern is unfortunately. As long as the Stratosphere does not fail us than we have a chance to make up for this in January.

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Post by Guest Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:29 pm

@algae888 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Al I am currently watching TWC. Not the biggest fan but they are harping on a “well above average” next few weeks because of this same ridge your posting about.  This week looks to be in the 50s by Thursday with soaking rain into next weekend and continued warmth afterwards. I hope Franks scroll and our LR crew is correct but so far this season things have gone VERY POORLY and I’m sensing we’re headed for some major disappointment if the NWS and TWC are correct
James the last six weeks have really been impressive for cold and even snow it could have been more impressive for snow if that southern system would have reached us and we would have been well above normal and then well content with a couple of week moderation / relaxation until things get going again in January it's just unfortunate that we didn't see any more snow during this time. But we couldn't ask for anything more the last four to six weeks

I couldn’t disagree more buddy. Yes the snow in November was awesome but we will be looking at 7 weeks (if we make it to January without snow which Frank says looks probable) without snow in a pattern that many folks were ecstatic over and was “full of potential”. Cold is useless without the moisture. I’d rather fish and golf if there’s no snow. IMHO the past month has been EXTREMELY disappointing

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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:15 pm

Yes Frank the recent positive SOI Spike and the mjo going into phase 4 and 5 when it was supposed to die out in 3 and Enter The Circle of Death has definitely changed the long range Outlook I'm always skeptical of the Strat because of the placement of the polar vortex after it splits and many times guidance is over aggressive with the split anyway but at some point El Nino has to take over this winter hopefully it sooner and not later
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:16 pm

From Isotherm aka Tom he is amazing and all need to chill with the LR. One thing I have not ed they sruggke.mighty with all the heat Flux in the strat trying to sort out all the mechanism's above 60* that affect our pattern tremendously. 
Here it is:
Well, as the proverbial body count on the abyss floor seems to be increasing by the day, I continue to watch as models adjust to the discussed forcing mechanisms in the medium range. The NAO domain signal continues to improve, while concurrently, geopotential heights correct more positive (i.e., less severe troughing) in W North America w/ every new cycle. However, rather than recognize these important medium range corrections which indicate longer range inaccuracies, some choose to focus on theunstable and evolving LR. Even still, the LR model changes are now being detected as the jetretraction relaxes, and more upstream ridging resumes in a mere few days following the zonal/gradient look for 24th-27th. Nothing has changed from my stand-point. Transitional period 21/22nd, sufficiently cold thereafter for potentialthreat. Periods such as this are quite revealing as to who bases their thought processes principally on model regurgitation, and who does not.


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Post by dkodgis Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:28 pm

Long range, short range. It doesnt matter so long as it brings snow
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:45 am

A lot not to like when you look at the pattern through Christmas....but I've been saying it will take until sometime between Xmas and New Years for changes to happen. It will definitely be closer to New Years now, with a possible storm to track New Years Eve actually. That would surely make-up for the lackluster December if we can make something happen NYE.

The MJO is the problem right now, but it is actually aiding in warming the Stratosphere so it is 2-fold. While our weather pattern stinks now - it has the chance to still be VERY good once we enter January.

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