Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[Guest]

I have a great LR forecast for all you forecasters

[HectorO]

I have a great LR forecast for all you forecasters

The weather actually looks to get colder around January 10th. However, that also looks like when it'll be dry again. I don't think we're going to see crap until February.

[dkodgis]

I know when I see why forecasts did not pan out, I learn a lot. I appreciate the chance.

[amugs]

The models are in a great state of flux a this time with a MAJOR Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event ready to crush the Polar Vortex in the stratosphere down through the troposphere.
What I have learned from these events are no two are alike and these are preceded bu AN temps in teh mid latitudes - our region. The greater the AN temps teh direct correlation to the greater the SSW event as has been note din research.
Now I know some will want to throw stones at me................you cant reach me - nah nah nanny poo poo - LOL BUT with that being said once we see the downwelling, and IF the models are correct with the three headed vortex monster split which as bring back 1963 -64 from another has explained in great detail said once it does then we will see a major flip that could last for a 45 period ala 1977-78.

From Dr Cohen:
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1080126292891181059

Jan 9-10th time frame is to watch as well - the NATL and NPAC look to be in a more favorable response and set up as we have the MJO going to phase 7 and the SCAN Blocl retrograding into the East of Greenland:



This is a great look for the stratosphere and our sensible weather


MJO Foercast:
BOMM


GEFS



The plots show the LP (blue areas are lower pressure) moving more east into the more favorable phases:


They show the MJO in phase 6 until as Isotherm says Jan 3/4 th and then into phase 7 which is a more favorable phase for us in this area - the response lag is usually a few (3-4)days

EURO: which has been struggling with the MJO - take ablned and we are in agood shape


Lets use the GEFS for these indices since the coupling effects will be translated a lot more in line with what is happening
AO - goes Negative + cold air intrusion into our area


NAO - blocking - goes N


PNA - spikes Positive - allows coastal storms and others to travel poleward or more Northerly as teh flow in the jet changes from west to east to more SW to NE


OUR FRIEND MR. EPO - this has been our major winter driver in 13-14, 14-15
going N which will help with a cross polar flow:


So we have good signs coming and I think our transition starts around the 7th - 9th time frame (+1 day)

[dkodgis]

And the jet stream will switch too? Also thanks for the write up

[amugs]

And the jet stream will swich too? Also thanks for the write up

Yes it will buckle teh flow from the West coast and dip into the the Southland and come up the coast:

Ideas on the jet buckle/dip





PV good visual

[dkodgis]

Great graphics. I appreciate the detail

[lglickman1]

You think this will be a sustained pattern change?

[Guest]

I’ll believe it when I see it. Thanks for the write up Al and I love your enthusiasm and I HOPE BEYOND HOPE you are correct but it’s the boy that cried wolf till then

[Grselig]

Thanks Mugs. All is not lost and seems like there is potential for a very different outlook in the near future.

[amugs]

Jimmy,
I hear ya and I am of the firm belief that we change starting around the 4th. We have the split happening now and a piece is forecasted to set up shop around Hudson Bay/ Newfoundland which will then usher in cold arctic air shortly thereafter. This will also promote our NAO block.

I think we see our first snowstorm around the 9th would be basically 2 months to the day from our last one on Nov 15th.

Just from isotherm wow!!
The cyclonic energies associated with the stratospheric polar vortex split, propagating southwestward into SE Canada, are becoming evident in the troposphere. The principal reason why we're seeing modelling detect the not insignificant 50/50 tropospheric vortex lobe near Newfoundland in the medium range is courtesy of stratospheric modulation. The split vortex can be seen, reflected through z70/z50. This projects upon the 500mb layer quite well, and aids adjunctively in driving the -NAO signal post January 4th [this may reflect favorably on the 8th-10th, but I will say no more right now]. NAM diminution maintains for post January 5th, with tropospheric effects in themid-latitudes quite rapid in the second week,coupled with amelioration in chi z200 divergence. ECMWF changes were quite positive today and expected. The long-term reversion depicted is stillapocryphal and will continue to adjust. Again, notgoing to say anything more sensible weather wise, but the idea that most of January is "lost" will be wrong - I believe that quite strongly and confidently

[amugs]

HERE IS THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION/MOVE BY THE MJO WAVE INTO THE FAVORABLE PHASES - OOPS CAPS LOCKED OH WELL:

[amugs]

This is great rapid response to the MJO and SSW

[skinsfan1177]

Have to watch for something 9th/10

[rb924119]

Below is my discussion between myself and two prominent members of the underground community, one of which is a sporadic poster and member of our family here (though I have removed their names out of courtesy). I outline why I still do not buy into the consensus of a pattern change within the next ten to 14 days, but do see a little light at the end of the tunnel. Please enjoy the read, and if you have any further comments or questions, please feel free to jump in!

“I am certainly not arguing the effects of mountain torque, stratospheric alterations and their impacts, tropics, etc., as I am well aware of what is currently transpiring. My main concerns are in regard to 1) timing and 2) orientation. My fear for timing is largely based on the highly anomalous MJO pulse, which has been highly bolstered by a westward propagating and amplifying Equatorial Rossby wave in recent weeks. This has been the catalyst for extreme amplitude we have seen since ~mid-December. As we know, when features of tropical origin intensify (rapidly), their forward progression also slows dramatically, which also fits the real-time observations of the MJO pulse itself. With the warmer than normal SSTs in this region, this positive feedback has been further enhanced. As we look at current prognostications, it is my guess that modeling is going to be too fast with the overall progression of the MJO signal, as these constructively interfering feedbacks will be reluctant (at best) to allow each coherent wave (MJO and Equatorial Rossby wave) to continue in its respective propagation. As a result, this will extend the effects of negative intereference on our pattern all on its own.

In accordance with the above, however, this will also have an effect on the SOI, which also shows to have a correlation to our hemispheric pattern, as I’ve discussed in the past. With the MJO lagging in its forward progressions, so far through Phase 5, and likely Phase 6, this should work to mitigate the extent to which the SOI can drop to negative values (may average negative overall, but weakly (in my opinion, and I consider anything below +/- 10 to be a weak/incoherent signal). The combination of these aforementioned factors will likely work to offset the substantial Niño 1.2 drop, which would otherwise align well with forecasts of a pattern chance between the 10th-20th.

Regarding my second worry of orientation, my fear stems from the overall presentation of two factors: 1) the complete lack of signal of a 70N/70E ridge on ANY guidance, even that which appears favorable (which I have been adament about on other sources), and 2) the orientation of the Stratospheric PV upon splitting, and its expected rapid coupling with the Tropospheric PV upon doing so. The first concern stems from an observed correlation with Eastern North American troughing once the 70N/70E ridge becomes largely established - essentially this feature helps establish the basis of the remaining waveguide, and also usually helps bleed into higher latitude blocking events. Until I see this feature start showing up consistently in guidance, and in consideration of the other factors mentioned heretofore, I will remain hesitant (at best) that we see a true shift to a more auspicious pattern for sustained cold and snow. This is exactly how I (along with a few others) was/were able to discard the EURO suite back in November and early December, as that feature was consistently modeled, but the rest of the waveguide was misrepresented. Knowing that feature was actually supported by other factors, led to the right conclusion. Following that success, I will follow through for now.

Secondly, when the Stratospheric PV splits and then couples with the Tropospheric PV, its location is progged, rather uniformly, to end up over southeastern Canada and even Newfoundland. While this may allow cold to begin largely consolidating to our northeast and transient shots to come our way, historically our best patterns come when the PV lobe(s) is/are centered either over or ever so slightly southwest of Hudson Bay. With the current proggs, systems will still be able to attack with warmer air from west and southwest as cutters and/or late coastal transfers. Again, this type of pattern is further supported by the previous factors.

Although this may sound entirely awful, I DO think we will see the fruits of all of this, but I think we still have a ways to go until we get there; possibly not until the end Week 3 or even 4 of January. Again, this is for the complete package. Lastly, I am unsure of how perturbed we can keep the Stratospheric vortex for an extended period, and knowing just how volatile these forecasts can be, do not want to take extended forecasts verbatim. That said, even if it did reconsolidate, we would have a solid stretch of at least three to five weeks, and likely further support from some of the other mechanisms already mentioned (tropical, mainly). I hope that helps to clarify my opinion, and I’m looking forward to further discussion “

[rb924119]

Just for entertainment, I wish we could see beyond Day 10 for that 00z Op run lol cutoff (subtropical?) system with another mid-latitude system propagating across south-central latitudes of the CONUS........would have been interesting, I’m sure lmao

[docstox12]

rb, if your analysis works out, then we are looking at an early to mid February start of chances for significant snow here.I finally understood something, the positioning of the PV lobe which allows the cutters to follow their path.It's like throwing a switch on a railroad to direct the way the train travels.Maybe this all fits in with the pattern lately of March being a good snow producing month.It appears even the experts are baffled about the MJO not moving out of 5.The current modeling programs a while ago did not see that at all.Work has to be done to modify the programs used to account for all this.

Bottom line for me, I'll hang in here to the bitter end and refuse to throw in the towel until March 15th.

[Frank_Wx]

We are slowly beginning to see the models catch onto the changes happening in the Stratosphere and with the MJO exiting phases 5-6 and into favorable phases of 7-8. The MJO is expected to exit phase 6 this weekend.

These are the changes I and many others have spoken about prior to Christmas. While I expected a better pattern to enter the New Year, it looks like it will commence around January 10th. I am still watching a storm near the 8th that could drop some snow too...but I like threats after the 10th a lot better.

[weatherwatchermom]

rb, if your analysis works out, then we are looking at an early to mid February start of chances for significant snow here.I finally understood something, the positioning of the PV lobe which allows the cutters to follow their path.It's like throwing a switch on a railroad to direct the way the train travels.Maybe this all fits in with the pattern lately of March being a good snow producing month.It appears even the experts are baffled about the MJO not moving out of 5.The current modeling programs a while ago did not see that at all.Work has to be done to modify the programs used to account for all this.

Bottom line for me, I'll hang in here to the bitter end and refuse to throw in the towel until March 15th.

I got it the way you explained it..thank you.. I need a simpler explanation at times, when it comes to understanding weather and I will not throw towel either..but I am not putting away my snowflake projector until that first storm hits!! Have a great day!

[HectorO]

rb, if your analysis works out, then we are looking at an early to mid February start of chances for significant snow here.I finally understood something, the positioning of the PV lobe which allows the cutters to follow their path.It's like throwing a switch on a railroad to direct the way the train travels.Maybe this all fits in with the pattern lately of March being a good snow producing month.It appears even the experts are baffled about the MJO not moving out of 5.The current modeling programs a while ago did not see that at all.Work has to be done to modify the programs used to account for all this.

Bottom line for me, I'll hang in here to the bitter end and refuse to throw in the towel until March 15th.

That's putting a lot of faith in March which is a wildcard month. This is the type of winter where we can get rain and temps nearing 60 all winter long and all of a sudden that one storm hits that brings everyone's average to normal, then the board lights up saying it was a successful winter. IMO it takes more than one giant storm to become a successful winter.

[heehaw453]

if blocking is being under modeled for 1/8-1/9, then may have something interesting around here. Day 6-7 is still too early to have much confidence in that IMO.

[algae888]

if blocking is being under modeled for 1/8-1/9, then may have something interesting around here.  Day 6-7 is still too early to have much confidence in that IMO.

So far the last few weeks the blocking was overdone on the models and everything cut. However this one looks different we need a few things to happen one the system on Saturday needs to be as strong as possible and to create a 50-50 low and pump up Heights near Greenland to slow the flow and press high pressure as far south as possible we also need a weaker system coming from the West so we get more of swfe instead of a cutter and late redeveloper. At least we got something legit to track of other note there can't be any greater differences between the GE EFS / geps and the euro ensembles

[algae888]

I mean the difference in the ensembles are staggering the euro is pure blue in the Arctic Circle the GEFS and Canadian are completely red one of them are going to bust real hard in the 11 to 15 day. I mean the Euro ensembles are contradictory of their mjo forecast it's kind of confusing and can't figure out what it's trying to do it has the mjo heading to seven and eight before The Circle of Death why such a hostile hemispheric pattern for snow and cold for our area

[algae888]

The other thing of note is the ssw that has taken place. From what I am hearing and understanding the vortexes now split. it will eventually get down into the troposphere not saying that the cold or any of the vortexes has to be on our side of the globe but there should be no blue in the Arctic at the end of the Euro run very confusing

[algae888]

The geps pumps the EPO Ridge at day 9 the g e f s day 10 to 11 and keep it there. The euro tries to pump the ridge around day 10 and then it's gone back to the Blue Ball.

[amugs]

AL the vortex has split an dteh easterlies have taken over at 10MB which has a 10-14 day lag which means once we get towards the 18th time frame to 20th then we may saw watch out if the triple headed Ghidora comes to fruition. Three deep blue circle areas




One thing I must say is that this is a complicate pattern with many scratching their heads due to the lag with the MJO BUT we have a drying out of the quadrants or warm phase areas which are off Ausie land - the deep shades of blue are more east in the phase 7 and 8 domains



Again for those who need teh visual to align this wave


Here is the progression we want to see for mid month and beyond
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[algae888]

Al my question to you and Frank and others is if the euro is showing mjo phase 7/8 even many members getting into one before dying off why do its ensembles show a 500mb pattern as if it was in the warm phases. Very perplexing to say the least also I should note the SOI has been negative for three straight days it's down near -10 today hopefully that will continue to drop

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