First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

It seems the starting time for Orange county has been moved up, to around noon.

Without further delay, here is my first call (issued Monday), followed by my final call.

As you can see, I followed the general theme of my first call and gave it some decent weight, as it undoubtedly was on the right track, but certainly needed some tweaking. After some hard-fought inner battles with my mind, I decided to stay a little lower than some of the guidance, and also lower than what current radar imagery is suggesting. My main reasons are that 1), synoptically, this system will be decaying by the time it gets here, so I am not entirely thrilled with the idea of a substantial wraparound (also known as Cold Conveyor Belt, CCB) signature on the backside. I think that the warm advection/isentropically forced precipitation at the beginning will end up being the main show, with maybe an additional 1-3" on the backside at most. Secondly, this is an interesting hybrid of two types of systems, each of which has its own precipitation bias. The first is what I will refer to as a "Mason Dixon Slider", where the main surface and mid-/upper-level features come in unison from the west-southwest up the Ohio Valley and then scoot across along or very near the Mason Dixon Line. Generally, these systems tend to be good for a 3-6"/4-7" region-wide snowfall (on the average), with front-end snows transitioning to a relatively short period of mix before shutting off completely. The other system, however, is obviously a coastal, which usually brings a more substantial precipitation signature along with colder air (if the setup warrants). Seeing as though this system has both components I was severely torn on which way I should lean (higher or lower) with my predicted amounts. Factoring in my initial ideas, as well as really looking at PWAT anomalies (which are actually not that impressive) and also under the analysis that this is a decaying mid-level and upper-level system, I decided to hedge a little lower than I would have otherwise expected.

I also factored in elevation (climatology), as well as hedge on a colder overall solution given the Northern Hemispheric setup, and while it may not be evident at the coast, where I still do not see appreciable accumulations, my other values have been increased to reflect this. As I mentioned earlier, our high pressure is substantially further west, even west-northwest of where it was "supposed" to be at this time, which lends some support to my thinking of an overall colder solution. As a result, we can capitalize on a longer ageostrophic flow at low levels, and remain frozen longer. You will notice that I did expand my maximum snowfall range a bit further to the northwest versus my initial forecast, and that is due to an overlap between the edges of both the initial isentropic forcing mechanisms in addition to what I think will initially be a healthier looking wraparound feature that decays as it comes eastward. Anyway, I wish I could be more detailed, as I usually am, but I really need to get some rest.....I kinda have to be awake in five hours lmao Happy tracking!! Oo, before I forget, if you have any questions or comments regarding what I did and/or why I did something, please feel free to ask!! I'll do my best to respond at some point haha Thanks!!