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First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:00 pm

6" now with 29 degrees. Sleet has mixed in so that's probably it for this main batch.  HRRR says about another inch or so possible in predawn hours.  What a November snow event!

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Post by Vinnydula on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:05 pm

All roads are closed. Pritty much and hour a. Mile if lucky
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:05 pm

@sroc4 wrote:I know my opinion has not been the most popular one so Ive kept it to myself as of late, but I still think this has very high bust potential for even areas N&W.  

The center of the HP is very rapidly moving off the NE coast as the precip moves in.  winds from the surface through 700mb have already shifted to the E through the S depending on the level you look at and the SST and air mass from which the winds from that direction is coming from is still very warm.  The air source region is riding over watrer temps in the mid 50's through the upper 60's.  There is no doubt the cold air is dense and will be diff to scour out but if this were even 1-2months later in the season and the water temps were in the 40's this would be a diff story.  I really think the warm air will be more influential than otherwise might if later in the season.  Also like Al alluded to earlier there is a 700 mb warm nose showing up in the modeling.  The true depth of that warm nose could be important for many locals.  I actually like Rbs original map right now with a few changes based on new information.  Il do my best to post a map and a write up if I can.

Timing will be everything.  Dew points start very low over much of the area but in a very short time, less than 3 hrs, the entire coastal plain dew points get above freezing all the while surface temps are 32-36 from NW to SE.  IF a heavy band can come in during this window than a thump is possible, but there are dif in where and when the "thump arrives.   This will be absolutely key to who gets the thump of accumulation and who doesnt.  Without a strong dbz band of precip within the window even areas N&W will have diff accumulating.

First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16 - Page 13 Liny_large_1_F

As you can see by the content above my account had been hacked. Rest assured the problem is fixed.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:16 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:I know my opinion has not been the most popular one so Ive kept it to myself as of late, but I still think this has very high bust potential for even areas N&W.  

The center of the HP is very rapidly moving off the NE coast as the precip moves in.  winds from the surface through 700mb have already shifted to the E through the S depending on the level you look at and the SST and air mass from which the winds from that direction is coming from is still very warm.  The air source region is riding over watrer temps in the mid 50's through the upper 60's.  There is no doubt the cold air is dense and will be diff to scour out but if this were even 1-2months later in the season and the water temps were in the 40's this would be a diff story.  I really think the warm air will be more influential than otherwise might if later in the season.  Also like Al alluded to earlier there is a 700 mb warm nose showing up in the modeling.  The true depth of that warm nose could be important for many locals.  I actually like Rbs original map right now with a few changes based on new information.  Il do my best to post a map and a write up if I can.

Timing will be everything.  Dew points start very low over much of the area but in a very short time, less than 3 hrs, the entire coastal plain dew points get above freezing all the while surface temps are 32-36 from NW to SE.  IF a heavy band can come in during this window than a thump is possible, but there are dif in where and when the "thump arrives.   This will be absolutely key to who gets the thump of accumulation and who doesnt.  Without a strong dbz band of precip within the window even areas N&W will have diff accumulating.

First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16 - Page 13 Liny_large_1_F

As you can see by the content above my account had been hacked.  Rest assured the problem is fixed.  

Hate when that happens. Very Happy Rolling Eyes Smile
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Post by WeatherBob on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:19 pm

Changed to Snow Pellets , Sleet and Snow. Most accumulation over now. Finished with a end burst of heavier snow. 5 in Total.
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Post by WeatherBob on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:20 pm

Not a bad quick hitting first snow.
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Post by Guest on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:25 pm

Last hour it’s been puking. Just lightened up. 4”. Picture proofFirst Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16 - Page 13 5a316c10

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Post by Vinnydula on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:26 pm

4 in. Comeing down
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:27 pm

Steady rain here and windy
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Post by billg315 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:31 pm

Hearing that piter-pater; change to sleet has occurred. Looks like I’ll end up at about 4”. A solid early season snow event.
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Post by RJB8525 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:46 pm

28* measured 6". parts of i80 westbound are now closed. sleet/ice mix now
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Post by 2004blackwrx on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:53 pm

7 inches in 2 hours wow

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Post by Vinnydula on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:54 pm

Where is this rain snow line?
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Post by bloc1357 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:58 pm

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=okx&lat=40.72000122&lon=-73.36000061&label=West%20Babylon

Rain snow line just at the south shore of LI

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:00 pm

@2004blackwrx wrote:7 inches in 2 hours wow

fantastic.

The HV rules.

Watch out for RB though he'll report 3 inches from Fishkill.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:36 pm

I've never seen gridlock like this across such a large area. It is INSANE out there. I couldn't even get out of my building garage in Port Chester!
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Post by WeatherBob on Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:40 pm

It’s brutal out there. Heavy wind driven sleet now!
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Post by docstox12 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:51 pm

Heavy snow, 25 degrees.Trained spotter measured 3.5 two hours ago and it was ripping all that time to here.Lots of precip still on the way from the radar.Hope it stays all snow, but sleet down in North Central Jersey now.Bodes ill.
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Post by freezerburn on Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:51 pm

It just took me 3.5 hours from Irvington to Hackensack on parkway and 46. Hill on 46 all cars stuck had to cut through trailer park to side road

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Post by WeatherBob on Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:53 pm

Surprised, got about another 3/4 of in , in the last 1.5 hrs, sleet and snow pellets, 6 in total.
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Post by Vinnydula on Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:55 pm

All sleet now
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Post by WeatherBob on Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:55 pm

6 in in Central Park!
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:01 pm

Still snowing here, the traffic on my street has been at a standstill my wife got to my daughter 2 hrs after the schoool ends and the busses were not even there yet, at least a half dozen cares are stuck on my street or ran out of gas, I mean yes its more than expected but this reminds me of Sandy traffic for gas!! its actually worse. Even emergency cannot get by. I can see saw mill parkway from my window it hasnt moved in hours. Wife left at 2pm, still not home and have not heard from her.
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:01 pm

3" out by me in Wading River. Any snow is good snow but snow when you expected none is even better. Cheers

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:02 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:6 in in Central Park!
Frank little to no accumulation along coast huh? I say we have at least 6 not if more and WSW updated at 5 saying 3-5 more, this may be a high end motherazilla to godzilla for some.
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