NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Page 8 of 14 Previous  1 ... 5 ... 7, 8, 9 ... 14  Next

Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:07 pm

0z ICON showing tons of rain,flooding. 3-5"

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Icon_apcpn_neus_15

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 969
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:49 pm

0z GFS, 2-4" of rain

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Qpf_acc.us_ne

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 969
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:05 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:0z GFS, 2-4" of rain

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Qpf_acc.us_ne
gonna be a fun drive home from my friends in ct friday afternoon.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16839
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:11 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:0z GFS, 2-4" of rain

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Qpf_acc.us_ne
gonna be a fun drive home from my friends in ct friday afternoon.

Definitely a mess, for sure

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 969
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:14 pm

CMC also agrees, showing 2-4". Definitely a coastal flood threat with these strong SE winds off the water and a full moon to help exacerbate high tides. Flash flood threat higher than normal for December as well with all the rain we've had and plenty of moisture to work with, with unusual PWAT values around 1.6-1.8. Almost tropical like.

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Pwat.us_ne

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 98ewbg

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 969
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:20 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:CMC also agrees, showing 2-4". Definitely a coastal flood threat with these strong SE winds off the water and a full moon to help exacerbate high tides. Flash flood threat higher than normal for December as well with all the rain we've had and plenty of moisture to work with, with unusual PWAT values around 1.6-1.8. Almost tropical like.

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Pwat.us_ne

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 98ewbg
Do you think I should stay in NY, I am supposed to leave tomorrow and have to be back by 4pm Fri to get my daughter from school, its a normal 2 hour drive.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16839
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:32 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:CMC also agrees, showing 2-4". Definitely a coastal flood threat with these strong SE winds off the water and a full moon to help exacerbate high tides. Flash flood threat higher than normal for December as well with all the rain we've had and plenty of moisture to work with, with unusual PWAT values around 1.6-1.8. Almost tropical like.

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Pwat.us_ne

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 98ewbg
Do you think I should stay in NY, I am  supposed to leave tomorrow and have to be back by 4pm Fri to get my daughter from school, its a normal 2 hour drive.

I think the heaviest rain starts to move out by mid-afternoon, but I'm not familiar with how things flood up there lol

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 969
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:38 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:CMC also agrees, showing 2-4". Definitely a coastal flood threat with these strong SE winds off the water and a full moon to help exacerbate high tides. Flash flood threat higher than normal for December as well with all the rain we've had and plenty of moisture to work with, with unusual PWAT values around 1.6-1.8. Almost tropical like.

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Pwat.us_ne

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 98ewbg
Do you think I should stay in NY, I am  supposed to leave tomorrow and have to be back by 4pm Fri to get my daughter from school, its a normal 2 hour drive.

I think the heaviest rain starts to move out by mid-afternoon, but I'm not familiar with how things flood up there lol  
I am just concerned with getting back into NYC area, 95 is not usually bad through CT, though I will prolly be drivin through some pretty heavy rains as I am going east to west on Friday but I can handle driving in the rain was more concerned with flooding and many major slowdowns, traffic is supposed to be worst tomorrow according to news.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16839
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:39 am

Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
319 AM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Wind Advisory,
which is in effect from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

* WINDS...Southeast 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* TIMING...Late tonight into Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2666
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:39 am

@algae888 wrote:The odds of a white Christmas in the New York City area are quite low Mike would probably have  the statistics for that but it's probably less than 20% so that is about once every 5 years I get it that it brings good feelings to have snow on Christmas but most of the time our season doesn't get started until after Christmas I mean we only averaged 4.6 in of snow in December. January and February are our months. we did have a bonus with the November storm. There's very few wall-to-wall Winters with cold and snow even 96 had the January thaw with the storm a week later. The pattern the first 15 days of December was great we were just unfortunate. It's easier to figure out the pattern it's hard to know if it's going to snow or not. My God I wonder what some of you would have done if you live through this 70s 80s and early 90s you guys would have went out of your minds

Historically Al it's a little above 25% for NYC to have a white Christmas, obviously that increases as you go in almost any direction other than south of the city.

If you use the 30 year period of1981-2010 it's below that in NYC. Of course anyone that reads the weather statistics thread knows that the 30 year period from 1981-2010 contains 2 of the 3 least snowiest decades in recorded history. As we all have witnessed that has changed since 2001. The next 30 year averages 1991-2020 will be much more in line, at least snow wise with, the 150 year average. Temperatures however continue to increase or at least run above recorded historical norms.

Actually your a bit off with the average snowfall data in December too.

The 150 year average for December in NYC is 5.5, the 1981-2010 average is 4.8, since 2001 the average is 6.2.

Also everyone that keeps saying this December has been way below average temperature wise is just plain wrong. All six reporting stations as of this morning are minus 0.7 to 1.1 degrees below normal for the month. I'd hardly call that way below normal. If you applied that to the 150 year December average of course we'd be above normal, temperature wise, for the month.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6384
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 99
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:11 am

Record highs will be broken tomorrow
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4396
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 42
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:48 am

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Screen10
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4396
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 42
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:29 am

12z NAM says break out the canoes

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Namconus_apcpn_neus_15

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 19009
Reputation : 295
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 28
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:42 am

12z GFS

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Qpf_acc.us_ne

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 969
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:31 am

12z CMC

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Qpf_acc.us_ne

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 969
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:32 am

Cranky is harping on damaging winds being a big story; feels Upton is way underdone. (Cc Jman ;-)

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Bf739710
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2666
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:48 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky is harping on damaging winds being a big story; feels Upton is way underdone. (Cc Jman ;-)

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Bf739710
I dunno, I disagree I think wind advisory to 45mph sounds about right but doesnt really matter to me I will be busy through most of tomorrow but driving in this on the way back should be interesting LOL
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16839
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:54 am

I do agree in any heavy rain or t-storms that higher gusts are possible event NWS briefing states this at the end. I love the dramatic pictures like this is nthe end of times jesus

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/21Dec2018_SocialMedia.pdf
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16839
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:59 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky is harping on damaging winds being a big story; feels Upton is way underdone. (Cc Jman ;-)

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Bf739710
I dunno, I disagree I think wind advisory to 45mph sounds about right but doesnt really matter to me I will be busy through most of tomorrow but driving in this on the way back should be interesting LOL

If I'm a betting man, I'd say we go up to a High Wind Warning along the coast by late tonight/early am.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2666
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Dec 20, 2018 1:11 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Cranky is harping on damaging winds being a big story; feels Upton is way underdone. (Cc Jman ;-)

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Bf739710
I dunno, I disagree I think wind advisory to 45mph sounds about right but doesnt really matter to me I will be busy through most of tomorrow but driving in this on the way back should be interesting LOL

If I'm a betting man, I'd say we go up to a High Wind Warning along the coast by late tonight/early am.

We have new gale and flood warnings
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2735
Reputation : 73
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 56
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:38 am

So sad that today is the first day of winter and it's 58* with heavy wind swept rain storm .I just want a freaking monster blizzard already

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2125
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:45 am

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Mcd10610


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
930 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic to Lower Hudson River Valley...N
VA/N MD/N DE/E PA/NJ/S NY/E CT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210229Z - 210829Z

SUMMARY...Tropical tele-connection and strong shortwave support
highly anomalous/record moisture flux into highly saturated area.
Flooding is likely with some localize flash flooding even
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 WV suite depicts a mature deep cyclone
extending the length of the eastern CONUS with excellent T-Bar
shape and broad anticyclonic baroclinic leaf/shield capping the
system indicative of strong outflow/ideal synoptic ascent pattern.
The right entrance region of 110-120kt 250kt jet is lifting north
but secondary jet axis is lifting north and broadening across the
area of concern throughout the next 3-6hrs providing excellent
diffluence in the region.

A surface cyclone is lifting through the southern/central
Appalachians with a warm front extending eastward through the
Piedmont of VA into the Delmarva peninsula, a cold front advances
along the eastern Gulf near a secondary developing surface low.
In advance of this front, a highly anomalous warm conveyor branch
is lifting northward across the Coastal Carolina Plain, angling
westward slightly across N VA/MD into Central PA attm. This
tropical branch is connected back to the Western Caribbean with
Total PWats to 1.75" detected through its length. CIRA advected
Layer PW suggest this is mainly lower atmospheric loaded with
Sfc-850 slug of near 1-1.25" advancing/pooling along the warm
front. Of interest, this is also the layer which is providing
some return southeasterly moisture along the NW to SE frontal
boundary through the Sargasso Sea into the central Atlantic.

This combined/confluent flow supported by 20-25kt sfc flow and
50-60kt 850kt winds pool this moisture into the Mid-Atlantic and
focus it along the PA Appalachians and Pocono Mountains, but as
the shortwave and associated upper level right jet entrance region
lift north and away from the base/shortwave energy in the Eastern
Gulf, the alignment of deep moisture flux will shift from a veered
profile and orient more unidirectional and support IVT values in
the 1250-1300 kg/ms range (given record or near record TPW of 1.7"
and strong winds), this will support increasing rainfall
efficiency with potential of .5-.75"/hr rates toward 08-09z across
the Eastern Poconos/Catskills and Lower Hudson River Valley.
Rainfall totals are generally expected in the 1.5-2.5" range
through 09z especially across Central PA and N MD with some
localized areas over 3" likely. This year's high rainfall totals
across the Mid-Atlantic will further be pushed supporting
increased run-off and the potential for isolated flash flooding
but likely areal and main stem flooding by early morning.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4396
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 42
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:53 am

Horrible day.Heavy, wind swept rain, mild possible flooding.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7011
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 69
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by Radz on Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:55 am

63°, heavy wind swept rain...
Radz
Radz
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 903
Reputation : 17
Join date : 2013-01-12
Location : Cortlandt Manor NY

Back to top Go down

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 8 Empty Re: December 2018 Observations and Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:05 am


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6531
Reputation : 283
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Page 8 of 14 Previous  1 ... 5 ... 7, 8, 9 ... 14  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum