Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

by **algae888** Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:20 pm

Wow the Confluence from the polar vortex lobe moved from just north of Long Island to Southern Maine in 24 hours on the 3K nam that's rather impressive

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:23 pm

well, well, well...does this mean the upper levels may be having a last second change in heart?
Talk about a fickle mistress!

by **algae888** Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:32 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:well, well, well...does this mean the upper levels may be having a last second change in heart?
Talk about a fickle mistress!

Yes always have to watch these Coastal lows. With the system slowing down any energy left once it hits the coastal Waters always has a chance of amplification and then heading north National Weather Service new discussion States snow will be about 25 to 50 miles south of Long Island from Monday morning so it's just a slight shift north and west for at least the Long Island Folk's to see some snow Monday morning I think you're in a great spot to see several inches enjoy

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:47 pm

This will be a nice storm for SNJ. Who lives down there?

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Namconus_asnow_neus_17

by **billg315** Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:24 pm

I’m thinking South Jersey coast gets several inches. I just saw that the NWS has updated totals for my home away from home inCape May County to 3-5”.

by **billg315** Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:37 pm

Snow starting to filter into S. Jersey:

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by larryrock72 Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:46 pm

I'm in southern ocean county Frank. I still think 2-3" here. I work closer to Atlantic City mon-fri in Atlantic county near cape may county. They should get 4+. I will keep you guys posted tomorrow.

by **frank 638** Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:01 pm

larryrock72 wrote:I'm in southern ocean county Frank. I still think 2-3" here. I work closer to Atlantic City mon-fri in Atlantic county near cape may county. They should get 4+. I will keep you guys posted tomorrow.

good luck I wish I wish here in the city we were getting 4 inches of snow such a depressing winter so far

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:52 pm

OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.
January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 6 2cndon

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 6 2cndon

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:57 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.

Not sure that will verify

by Smitty623 Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:10 pm

What are we thinking in the Bayville Area?!? A little surprise? 2-3?

Sent from Topic'it App

by **Grselig** Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:20 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.

Damn you. Kids are still awake and the Cows just scored. Plus no snow by me.

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:24 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.

Not sure that will verify

I'd be shocked if it did skins! ha ha! But it sure is making for a fun night.

Smitty, that's exactly what I'm thinking. But the radar doesn't stay together well overnight (like Billg noticed 6 hours ago) and I'm not sold on a strong redevelopment. But, I think we can squeeze up to 4-6" with just a tad bit of luck. Two parts: Over running event tonight, and then a possible glancing blow from the coastal low tomorrow night.

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:29 pm

Grselig wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.

Damn you. Kids are still awake and the Cows just scored. Plus no snow by me.

Lol! Hang in there! You're day, or night, will come! But, tonight's a fun night to be a snow loving, Cowboy fan at the Shore. ha ha!

by **Grselig** Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:36 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
Grselig wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.

Damn you. Kids are still awake and the Cows just scored. Plus no snow by me.

Lol! Hang in there! You're day, or night, will come! But, tonight's a fun night to be a snow loving, Cowboy fan at the Shore. ha ha!

Enjoy!

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:51 pm

Well, as I figured, the cowboy part is crapping out...but here is the hrrr for just the overrunning event. With the better ratios, not too bad as part 1.

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Fmlvds

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 6 Fmlvds

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:25 pm

Reality is that as per the radar, the snow line has been about 10 miles to my south for the past 2 hours. Larry, you getting any of this at least?

by **SENJsnowman** Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:29 am

28* with a steady accumulating snow! A solid inch on the ground and radar looks decent for the next few hours on the overrunning event.

So, my morning analysis of sr models and the radar tells me that Ocean County will see 1-2" more from this first step and could see much higher totals (6"+?) if the low does sit and churn for a bit tonight. The gradient from 4-5" and 1" occurs within a 20 mile stretch in northern Ocean County.

Atlantic County on South into the DelMarva could go Godzilla plus!

I honestly can't tell if my backyard would get 2" or the 6"+. Honestly, if we have enough snow to make a snowman without having to scrape the snow clean down to the grass, we'll be happy around the SENJ homefront for today!

by **docstox12** Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:02 am

SENJsnowman wrote:28* with a steady accumulating snow! A solid inch on the ground and radar looks decent for the next few hours on the overrunning event.

So, my morning analysis of sr models and the radar tells me that Ocean County will see 1-2" more from this first step and could see much higher totals (6"+?) if the low does sit and churn for a bit tonight. The gradient from 4-5" and 1" occurs within a 20 mile stretch in northern Ocean County.

Atlantic County on South into the DelMarva could go Godzilla plus!

I honestly can't tell if my backyard would get 2" or the 6"+. Honestly, if we have enough snow to make a snowman without having to scrape the snow clean down to the grass, we'll be happy around the SENJ homefront for today!

SENJ, your post reassures me that snow does actually exist!! Enjoy the fun today and hope the coastal stays around down there a while.Have fun!

by **billg315** Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:13 am

26* with a light to moderate snow here! A coating of snow covering everything. Waking up to snow falling and a fresh coating covering the landscape - this winter I will take it. Maybe this is the harbinger of the better pattern that appears to be starting this week.

by **billg315** Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:16 am

Current radar shows solid snow for our South Jersey guys and a taste of some morning mood flakes for most of Central and North Jersey.

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by **billg315** Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:23 am

doc, you’ll get better pics (I hope!) from our members well south of me where the real snow is falling, but I do have photographic evidence this morning that precipitation other than rain does still exist! Haha:

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by **SENJsnowman** Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:34 am

Not really seeing anything to support further optimism at mm 80. of the GSP. Flakes are tiny and light and the radar now has kinda dumped, so the overrunning event looks like it will be an inch and no more. And the fact that no person has backed up the sr models in terms of a redeveloping low is telling. For some reason, the sr models picked up on something, and continue to do so, that doesn't look to be there. Very interesting lesson in terms of model reading: the sr models may be reliable, but if there is no met corroborating it, they likely see that the data input is corrupting the model output.

Not to worry, at least we got our pump primed now...bring on the first threat in our new pattern!

by **billg315** Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:48 am

Yeah SENJ I think mm 80 is too far north for this one (although as you can see above I’m happy with a coating and mood flakes because, well, it’s something). Lol. I do think Atlantic and Cape May counties (I.e. south of mm 50) will still do good with this.

by **heehaw453** Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:51 am

1/2” otg. I have doubled my total December snowfall.

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:05 am

Finally

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by **SENJsnowman** Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:30 am

Sorry, Doc! Mine aren't too much better than Bill's, but it's still gonna be a fun morning...especially when big sis wakes up and these two have their band leader ha ha!

And when the storms are bigger, these smiles turn into non-stop jumps and leaps of joy at the mere thought of the day ahead. There is no greater gift mother nature can give me than a full fledged snow storm that my children can savor all day long...

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January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 6 2z8yg03

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 6 2ic6yoj

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