January 2019 Observations and Discussions
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
Wow the Confluence from the polar vortex lobe moved from just north of Long Island to Southern Maine in 24 hours on the 3K nam that's rather impressive
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
well, well, well...does this mean the upper levels may be having a last second change in heart?
Talk about a fickle mistress!
Talk about a fickle mistress!
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
SENJsnowman wrote:well, well, well...does this mean the upper levels may be having a last second change in heart?
Talk about a fickle mistress!
Yes always have to watch these Coastal lows. With the system slowing down any energy left once it hits the coastal Waters always has a chance of amplification and then heading north National Weather Service new discussion States snow will be about 25 to 50 miles south of Long Island from Monday morning so it's just a slight shift north and west for at least the Long Island Folk's to see some snow Monday morning I think you're in a great spot to see several inches enjoy
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
This will be a nice storm for SNJ. Who lives down there?


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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
I’m thinking South Jersey coast gets several inches. I just saw that the NWS has updated totals for my home away from home inCape May County to 3-5”.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
I'm in southern ocean county Frank. I still think 2-3" here. I work closer to Atlantic City mon-fri in Atlantic county near cape may county. They should get 4+. I will keep you guys posted tomorrow.
larryrock72- Posts : 136
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
good luck I wish I wish here in the city we were getting 4 inches of snow such a depressing winter so farlarryrock72 wrote:I'm in southern ocean county Frank. I still think 2-3" here. I work closer to Atlantic City mon-fri in Atlantic county near cape may county. They should get 4+. I will keep you guys posted tomorrow.
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.


SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
SENJsnowman wrote:OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.
Not sure that will verify
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
What are we thinking in the Bayville Area?!? A little surprise? 2-3?
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Sent from Topic'it App
Smitty623- Posts : 22
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
SENJsnowman wrote:OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.
Damn you. Kids are still awake and the Cows just scored. Plus no snow by me.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
skinsfan1177 wrote:SENJsnowman wrote:OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.
Not sure that will verify
I'd be shocked if it did skins! ha ha! But it sure is making for a fun night.
Smitty, that's exactly what I'm thinking. But the radar doesn't stay together well overnight (like Billg noticed 6 hours ago) and I'm not sold on a strong redevelopment. But, I think we can squeeze up to 4-6" with just a tad bit of luck. Two parts: Over running event tonight, and then a possible glancing blow from the coastal low tomorrow night.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
Grselig wrote:SENJsnowman wrote:OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.
Damn you. Kids are still awake and the Cows just scored. Plus no snow by me.
Lol! Hang in there! You're day, or night, will come! But, tonight's a fun night to be a snow loving, Cowboy fan at the Shore. ha ha!
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
SENJsnowman wrote:Grselig wrote:SENJsnowman wrote:OK, kids are in bed and the Cowboys are getting thrashed, so back to this little storm. The 00z 3k NAM is um...amped for Ocean County all the way south to Virginia.
Damn you. Kids are still awake and the Cows just scored. Plus no snow by me.
Lol! Hang in there! You're day, or night, will come! But, tonight's a fun night to be a snow loving, Cowboy fan at the Shore. ha ha!
Enjoy!
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
Well, as I figured, the cowboy part is crapping out...but here is the hrrr for just the overrunning event. With the better ratios, not too bad as part 1.


SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
Reality is that as per the radar, the snow line has been about 10 miles to my south for the past 2 hours. Larry, you getting any of this at least?
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
28* with a steady accumulating snow! A solid inch on the ground and radar looks decent for the next few hours on the overrunning event.
So, my morning analysis of sr models and the radar tells me that Ocean County will see 1-2" more from this first step and could see much higher totals (6"+?) if the low does sit and churn for a bit tonight. The gradient from 4-5" and 1" occurs within a 20 mile stretch in northern Ocean County.
Atlantic County on South into the DelMarva could go Godzilla plus!
I honestly can't tell if my backyard would get 2" or the 6"+. Honestly, if we have enough snow to make a snowman without having to scrape the snow clean down to the grass, we'll be happy around the SENJ homefront for today!
So, my morning analysis of sr models and the radar tells me that Ocean County will see 1-2" more from this first step and could see much higher totals (6"+?) if the low does sit and churn for a bit tonight. The gradient from 4-5" and 1" occurs within a 20 mile stretch in northern Ocean County.
Atlantic County on South into the DelMarva could go Godzilla plus!
I honestly can't tell if my backyard would get 2" or the 6"+. Honestly, if we have enough snow to make a snowman without having to scrape the snow clean down to the grass, we'll be happy around the SENJ homefront for today!
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
SENJsnowman wrote:28* with a steady accumulating snow! A solid inch on the ground and radar looks decent for the next few hours on the overrunning event.
So, my morning analysis of sr models and the radar tells me that Ocean County will see 1-2" more from this first step and could see much higher totals (6"+?) if the low does sit and churn for a bit tonight. The gradient from 4-5" and 1" occurs within a 20 mile stretch in northern Ocean County.
Atlantic County on South into the DelMarva could go Godzilla plus!
I honestly can't tell if my backyard would get 2" or the 6"+. Honestly, if we have enough snow to make a snowman without having to scrape the snow clean down to the grass, we'll be happy around the SENJ homefront for today!
SENJ, your post reassures me that snow does actually exist!! Enjoy the fun today and hope the coastal stays around down there a while.Have fun!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
26* with a light to moderate snow here! A coating of snow covering everything. Waking up to snow falling and a fresh coating covering the landscape - this winter I will take it. Maybe this is the harbinger of the better pattern that appears to be starting this week.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4176
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Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 49
Location : Flemington, NJ
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
Not really seeing anything to support further optimism at mm 80. of the GSP. Flakes are tiny and light and the radar now has kinda dumped, so the overrunning event looks like it will be an inch and no more. And the fact that no person has backed up the sr models in terms of a redeveloping low is telling. For some reason, the sr models picked up on something, and continue to do so, that doesn't look to be there. Very interesting lesson in terms of model reading: the sr models may be reliable, but if there is no met corroborating it, they likely see that the data input is corrupting the model output.
Not to worry, at least we got our pump primed now...bring on the first threat in our new pattern!
Not to worry, at least we got our pump primed now...bring on the first threat in our new pattern!
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
Yeah SENJ I think mm 80 is too far north for this one (although as you can see above I’m happy with a coating and mood flakes because, well, it’s something). Lol. I do think Atlantic and Cape May counties (I.e. south of mm 50) will still do good with this.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
1/2” otg. I have doubled my total December snowfall.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions
Sorry, Doc! Mine aren't too much better than Bill's, but it's still gonna be a fun morning...especially when big sis wakes up and these two have their band leader ha ha!
And when the storms are bigger, these smiles turn into non-stop jumps and leaps of joy at the mere thought of the day ahead. There is no greater gift mother nature can give me than a full fledged snow storm that my children can savor all day long...

And when the storms are bigger, these smiles turn into non-stop jumps and leaps of joy at the mere thought of the day ahead. There is no greater gift mother nature can give me than a full fledged snow storm that my children can savor all day long...


SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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