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Long Range Thread 18.0

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:54 am

As per weather.com, this is what the storm would like if the present forecast modeling were to play out.



We have this all night Saturday night (Or, as I like to say: And how about Marla Hooch?!):

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 10winhv

Then, for most of Sunday morning (on into maybe early Sun afternoon)...just plain nasty:

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Ngw011



Then, we all get jiggy for a few, maybe several hours on Sunday:

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 119yz5y

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 F2kn51





And she pulls ots by about 8-9 pm, from west to east.


Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 2dahvua

Wow does it set up nice right now for nwnj and lhv...

And worst comes to worst for us coasteys, don't sleep on that back end thump peeps...last March, a lot of us picked up over a foot just on the backend, with nothing on the front end

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Post by Smitty623 Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:57 am

Ocean County Coasties? A shot? Too early?

Sent from Topic'it App

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:26 am

TheAresian wrote:Sorry. I meant the GEFS. All of this storm excitement has got me staying up past my bedtime.

url=https://servimg.com/view/19130284/383]Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Screen21[/url]
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:34 am

Thanks. I decided to get a Weatherbell sub. I couldn't pass on unlimited access to all of the maps, even if I don't understand most of them.

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Post by Guest Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:43 am

0z Euro OP run. Good for me, not really so good for everybody else. Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Ecmwf_10

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:50 am

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 15, 2019 1:51 am

TheAresian wrote:Thanks. I decided to get a Weatherbell sub. I couldn't pass on unlimited access to all of the maps, even if I don't understand most of them.

OH NO ahahahahaha Your life is now over as you knew it, my friend lmfaooooooo

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:25 am

Before I get into my analysis, I would like to preface it by saying that this is an INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT setup to predict, with very high bust potential. I will refer to this setup as more of a “super front” than an actual organized low pressure system, due to what I expect to be a very weak surface feature. It should end up being more of an elongated wave of lower pressure than an organized one, and I will get to that later in the analysis. To start off, rather than have everybody read the whole thing to get to the “good stuff”, I will provide my main thoughts regarding the overall evolution and where I think the models should begin heading in coming days. Please be advised that these thoughts are based on a purely subjective analysis of today’s (14th January) 12z suites, in a particularly bust-prone setup:

1. I believe the models are again playing into the demonstrated left-track error that has been a feature of several (possible) events so far this season, and expect them to begin correcting further southeast in subsequent runs.
a. This is highlighted by the consistent bias of the Operational runs of the GFS and Euro (excluding the FV3 and GEM/CMC for obvious reasons) remaining well to the left of their respective ensembles/ensemble means.
b. This thinking also has a caveat: based on my analysis, there is a limit as to how far south and east I am expecting modeling to correct, and it isn’t much (thinking about 50 miles, or so, further east of the mean multi-model ensemble cluster) due to the relative strength and nature of forcing mechanisms supporting Eastern North American ridging in play.

2. I believe that there will be a single primary wave instead of multiple impulses riding along the boundary, although secondary development will likely occur offshore with no impact to our region (Mid-Atlantic and Northeast). This will limit the overall duration to approximately a 12-16 hour window).

3. I do not see a substantial icing threat with this system because we are dealing with a truly Arctic boundary. The magnitude of the cold behind this front is very great, and the front will be very steep as a result. It will essentially be a wall of cold, and the thermal profile near the freezing line will be nearly uniform through the lower column (i.e. you reach freezing at the surface you nearly simultaneously will fall to zero aloft). Therefore, I expect any changes in precipitation type to be very rapid with little in-between. This is not like a typical over-running setup, where there is a well-established antecedent airmass: It’s coming in as the over-running is occurring. This leads to number 4.

4. Due to very strong over-running (warm air advection, W.A.A., isentropic lift) AND intense frontogenesis all occurring within the highly auspicious backdrop for synoptic-scale ascent set up by the presence of a very strong upper-level jet placing our region in the right entrance region (area of dynamically forced ascent) and net positive vorticity advection (P.V.A.) at 500 hPa occurring downstream of a long-wave trough axis, as well as remarkably high precipitable water anomalies (P-WAT, values approaching and even exceeding 2-sigma in the cold sector), precipitation rates will be very heavy and liquid equivalency high (generally 1-2”).

5. Because we are dealing with a true Arctic airmass, those lucky enough to experience snow will see very high ratios, even if “riding the line” of mixing. Based on my crude approximations, 15-20:1 will be achievable through most, if not all of the event, and much to my surprise, dendrites and stellar plates should be the primary crystal type, which readily accumulate. As a result, the totals you are seeing on the Crapola maps, in my opinion, are achievable, and I am expecting a maximum zone of near the 18-24” range. My best guess for the general distribution of snowfall is below:

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Slide114

**For a more detailed discussion, please continue reading below.**

First, I would again like to start off with a synopsis of the Hemispheric and Tropical factors that I considered in my analysis, and how I believe they interfere with one another in regard to the evolution of our system. I will begin by discussing all of the of the factors that I believe will work to suppress the storm track further south and/or east than most of the current prognostications suggest, then follow with a brief mention of factors that I think will have little to no discernible impact. I will conclude with a discussion of the factors that I believe will work to allow the system to track similarly or even further north than current prognostications suggest. For all three of these portions of this discussion, please reference the below images, and please note that all factors have been given equal weighting in this analysis. The first image referenced is that of the 12z Euro Ensemble 500 hPa height anomalies (color shadings, blue: lower-than-normal heights, red: higher-than-normal heights) and mean heights in the black contours, valid at 00z Sunday (a point that I believe will be critical in the system’s evolution).

Factors that I believe will work to suppress the storm track further south by allowing more troughing into Eastern North America are denoted by the following: 2. –W.P.O., indicated by the green line showing higher height anomalies poleward of lower height anomalies 3. –E.P.O., indicated by the green line showing higher height anomalies poleward of lower height anomalies 4. +P.N.A. (ridge), circled in green and evidenced by the higher height anomalies 5. Pseudo –N.A.O., evidenced by the higher height anomalies poleward of the lower height anomalies in the Sub-tropical Atlantic. This will be revisited shortly.

I believe the following factors will have little, if any, discernible effect on the track of our storm system: 6. A neutral A.O., indicated by the approximate equal expanses of positive and negative height anomalies within the green circle (although I am having a hard time not considering this to be in a negative phase given the equatorward flow over our continent – this is likely a true wildcard in this assessment, but I played it safe). 7. Generally “neutral” S.O.I. during the last week. I consider anything +/-8 over several consecutive days to be a legitimate signal and forcing mechanism in the atmosphere, and this week did not meet that requirement. It was also excluded.

Lastly, the factors that will work to force the storm track either in line with current Operational prognostications, or even further north by means of Eastern North American ridge enhancement, are the following: 1. The lack of a 70N/70E ridge, indicated by the lower height anomalies within the green circle. 8. The M.J.O. will be in either Phase 4 or Phase 5 at moderate amplitude, and in January, both phases are warm (enhance ridging in Eastern North America, as evidenced by the warmer temperature anomalies). 9. El Niño region 1.2 spike in recent weeks (accounting for sensible lag of two to three weeks, this will help promote ridging into Eastern and North America). 10. Above-average sea surface temperature anomalies in the Gulf and Southwestern Atlantic, adding sensible heat flux to the atmosphere and constructively interfering with the other factors above. This will also be further aided by some latent heat release from our developing system, as heavy precipitation develops and releases additional heat into the atmosphere during its phase change from vapor to liquid/crystals.

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So, considering all of these factors are equally weighted, that leaves us with an equal distribution of forcing mechanisms attempting to influence the overall Northern Hemispheric pattern in opposite directions. Now what? This is where I would like to come back to (5) the pseudo –N.A.O. as well as (5A), the highly anomalously warm water in the Northern Atlantic. The warm water is likely constructively interfering with the pseudo –N.A.O. by adding heat flux into the atmosphere and partially feeding back into the local anomaly maximum in that region at 500 hPa. While this is not ideal, and certainly not conventional, I think that it is actually helping to enhance other features that will allow the storm to track further south by means of dampened heights over the Eastern U.S..

Take a look at the following image, valid the same time as above (same map):

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Screen31

1763467092_ScreenShot2019-01-15at12_51_28AM.png.059152ba407e7bf4952b6d4cf91960eb.png

1. Represents a trailing shortwave 2. represents the northern stream energy associated with our system of interest 3. represents the southern stream energy associated with our system of interest, and the green arrows represent the streamflow. First off, notice the short wave spacing between (1) and (2). This will create a “progressive” flow in the northern stream, and work to kick (2) further downstream instead of allowing it to drag behind. Also note how the trough axes of (2) and (3) are basically in the same longitudinal plane. If the above holds, and/or (3) phases with (2), the system of interest cuts to the west of our region. However, if (2) can outpace (3), that will work to suppress the height field across the Eastern U.S. and force a storm track further south. It is this second option that I believe will result. Considering all of the other factors already discussed, we should end up seeing modeling trend away from an earlier interaction between (2) and (3). With the pseudo –N.A.O. in place, and the ridging associated with it being bolstered by the forcing mechanisms favoring Eastern and Central North American ridging, this ridge will likely be the key to the eventual track. As that ridging maximum gains amplitude along and off the eastern coast of Canada, it will begin extending back toward the Eastern U.S. This will work to do two things: 1. greatly and rapidly enhance the thermal gradient aloft, thereby rapidly increasing the upper-level jet over Eastern North America 2. work to maintain or even increase the separation between (2) and (3) as it tries to split the difference between the two shortwaves. As the jet strengthens out ahead of (2), it will begin allowing the overall streamflow upstream to increase as the entire flow rapidly increases, thereby accelerating the propagation of the (mid-level) energy along with it. Secondly, take notice of the split flow across the Southern U.S. and Western Atlantic out ahead of (3). Due to the difluence, this will work to decelerate the forward speed of that shortwave relative to the increase in that of (3). Additionally, while (2) is feeling some influence from the anomalous ridging in the E.P.O. domain, it is being governed more by the anomalous ridging in the P.N.A. domain with little resistance from the ridging building to the east (at higher latitude, there’s the ridge attempting to split the difference). Therefore, (2) should remain positively tilted longer than current modeling suggests as the upstream pattern continues to force it to dig into the Southeast. Similarly, (2) should be both accelerating and more rapidly tilting toward neutral and then negative quicker than modeling suggests due to the following: It will be governed by the initially stronger upstream ridging in the E.P.O. domain which rapidly fades in strength in comparison to the Eastern North American/Northwestern Atlantic ridging building from the east, the secondary shortwave (1) chasing (2) as a result of the ridging in the E.P.O. domain, thereby maintaining a short wavelength and forcing downstream propagation, further acceleration by the northern jet streak in response to the increasing thermal gradient aloft over Eastern North America, and then finally the rapid dominance of the Eastern North American/Northwestern Atlantic ridging forcing the final negative tilt and lifting.

Keep in mind that this is all happening while the southern stream is developing the wave that will become the system of interest. As that progresses, and the thermal advection begins to rapidly increase out ahead of it in response to that in coordination with the growing Eastern North American/Northwestern Atlantic ridge, the maximum height falls will actually be occurring across the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. as very strong mid-level warm air advection (W.A.A.) and positive vorticity advection (P.V.A.) will initially be constructively interfering, until (2) gets out ahead of (3) and begins tilting neutral in response to the factors discussed heretofore. This should allow heights to fall while also maintaining distinct separation longer than current guidance suggests. Since I believe that modeling is not yet handling the evolution of (2) and its interaction with (3) properly, and as I described above, I believe we will start to see the height field over the Northeastern U.S. decrease in future runs.

Regarding precipitation and thermals, I discussed most of it in the introductory statements. While this is not a classic storm, the very intense thermal gradient between the Arctic airmass and warmth to its southeast will be a focusing mechanism amidst the backdrop of very strong thermal advection and a very intense jet streak aloft. This combination will promote very heavy precipitation across the region, and given the truly Arctic nature of this boundary, I do not see a large threat for ice accretion. This front is going to be so steep through the atmospheric column that the precipitation types will largely be either rain or snow; very little mixed precipitation. That line will be (geographically speaking) razor thin. I also mentioned earlier that I believe this will be one wave, and that is largely due to the overall setup. The initial surge of W.A.A. will also be accompanied by the best jet dynamics, which are actually occurring well ahead of most of the P.V.A. By the time that gets in, it will be both strung out as the trough axes of (2) and (3) in the previous graphic attempt to align along or east of our longitude, and behind all of the other forcing mechanisms in play. Due to the very fast flow, this event will likely last approximately 12-16 hours, but the precipitation rates will be intense through much of the event. Given the very cold thermal profiles, even immediately north of the frontal boundary, snowfall ratios will be very high, and based on the average temperature through the atmospheric column, dendrites and stellar plates will be the favored crystal types, which will work constructively with the high ratios to accumulate very quickly. Again, I actually think the Crapola maps are reasonable. For those of you interested, if I have time to provide an updated map and/or deep analysis, I will, but I cannot guarantee that at this time.

I know this was a very long discussion, but it took me a long time to draw these conclusions. A LOT of thought was put into this, so it was also a lot to convey. I hope you enjoyed the read, and I hope it made sense!! Any comments or further discussion are welcomed!! Thank you so much for your time, to those of you who read this; I really appreciate it!!

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:44 am

Math did you not just read rb amazing phd thesis. Dang man that was a lot of work sorry only had time read the first part. I'm hoping it comes down south and east even more but if I can see moderate snow I guess we all have to agree that's better than So far this season. 06z gfs cuts but the 18th gives some places north of NYC as much as 6 inches! Is the storm being stronger and colder good or bad for Sunday I forgot sorry. I think good for bringing down cold. What appears to be freaking cold from 20th on.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:17 am

NWS now has me from all snow yesterday to snow changing to slop.Very treacherous if that happens.Good thing it's the weekend! Models will be dancing all over.
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Post by dkodgis Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:50 am

Talking about Thurs night, about when does precip start? I have t be out that night. I want to get my ducks in line
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:18 am

I am hoping things turn positive in the next 24 hours because the last 24 hours have trended horribly for this system in comparison to what we were seeing from these same models over the weekend.

Syos a genius for not getting emotionally involved in this setup yet.  

RB- Fanatstic write up. Hope you're right, you've been pretty much spot on all winter with the exception of the mid November storm, but no one including the NWS, the highway departments, the local Mets, and the Maoist Mayor of NY got that one right.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:00 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Just to lighten the mood the Canadian 0Z showing a cutter. Off on it's own right now and hopefully on crack.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Gem10

I posted the above Sunday night at 11 pm when every model was spitting out anywhere from 10-36 inches of snow and ice in our area for next weekend. The usually pitiful CMC became an outlier showing a cutter with temps rising into the 50's along the coast with rain for almost everybody.

At the time I thought it's just one run of a poor model but anytime I see something like that It's still unsettling because sometimes one model can pick up early on things the other models miss. From the looks of todays model runs the Sunday night CMC may have been onto something, unfortunately.

Still plenty of time to go either way but I hate the trend the last 24 hours. Hopefully we start going back to the solutions the models were coming up with this past weeknd (other than the CMC's) by tonights runs.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:09 am

What is time on the werkend storm is it Saturday into Sunday or sunday into monday
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:11 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:What is time on the werkend storm is it Saturday into Sunday or sunday into monday

Saturday late afternoon/early evening period into Sunday
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:16 am

Ray - nice write up. I hope it works out.

I just look at this image of the GFS valid for Saturday morning and can't help but feel down about the system. The southern stream energy is practically CLOSED off over the Midwest, allowing heights to pump north along the coast.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Gfs_z500_vort_us_18

And if that was not bad enough - check out the piece of the Polar Vortex phasing into this run later on.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Gfs_z500_vort_us_22

To me this set-up screams rain for the coast and Godzilla for the interior Northeast. Good for them, they have not had one of these in awhile.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:17 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Just to lighten the mood the Canadian 0Z showing a cutter. Off on it's own right now and hopefully on crack.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Gem10

I posted the above Sunday night at 11 pm when every model was spitting out anywhere from 10-36 inches of snow and ice in our area for next weekend. The usually pitiful CMC became an outlier showing a cutter with temps rising into the 50's along the coast with rain for almost everybody.

At the time I thought it's just one run of a poor model but anytime I see something like that It's still unsettling because sometimes one model can pick up early on things the other models miss. From the looks of todays model runs the Sunday night CMC may have been onto something, unfortunately.

Still plenty of time to go either way but I hate the trend the last 24 hours. Hopefully we start going back to the solutions the models were coming up with this past weeknd (other than the CMC's) by tonights runs.

i wonder if weather.com uses this model..they have me at 50 degrees on Sunday... Sad
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:21 am

The UKIE was a pretty snowy run for us last night. There is plenty of time for corrections for the low to trend back east. As Ray calls out, the -EPO/-WPO/+PNA work in our favor, but the pattern is not locked into place. These ridges are in constant motion so we need amazing timing for this to work out. Unfortunately all this ridging could also work against us.

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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:34 am

dkodgis wrote:Talking about Thurs night, about when does precip  start?  I have t be out that night. I want to get my ducks in line

I’m thinking starting around midnight continuing through the morning rush and being done by 9 or 10 am.
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Post by Guest Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:47 am

Question if I might: At what level is the liquid to snow ratio determined? 850mb? Higher? Lower?

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Post by Scullybutcher Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:01 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Ray - nice write up. I hope it works out.

I just look at this image of the GFS valid for Saturday morning and can't help but feel down about the system. The southern stream energy is practically CLOSED off over the Midwest, allowing heights to pump north along the coast.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Gfs_z500_vort_us_18

And if that was not bad enough - check out the piece of the Polar Vortex phasing into this run later on.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Gfs_z500_vort_us_22

To me this set-up screams rain for the coast and Godzilla for the interior Northeast. Good for them, they have not had one of these in awhile.
Dislike. Hopefully you are tryin the whole reverse psychology thing. Lol
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Post by dkodgis Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:03 am

@Billg315-thank you
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:11 am

TheAresian wrote:Question if I might: At what level is the liquid to snow ratio determined? 850mb? Higher? Lower?

I'll give this a shot and could be corrected by others. I think you can use the surface temperature for a rough estimate and get a decent idea, but I think you probably really want to look at the level closer to where the snow is forming so you'd probably want to look at the 850 level. I've also read that you should take into account the maximum temperature in the air column (i.e. if there is a slightly warmer layer in between colder layers because that can effect the ratio as the snowflakes fall, maybe melt a bit and then refreezes). If this is not correct I'm sure someone will set me straight.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:21 am

Mount Holly's current thoughts:



The timing of the northern and southern
systems will be key regarding the end results here in the East, as
some guidance phases them and therefore the surface low tracks over
or just west of our area. The track of the surface low will depend
on where the baroclinic zone is placed and tightens, as arctic air
will be pouring in on the backside of this storm. All of this will
play havoc with not only the precipitation types but also amounts
and therefore impacts.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:54 am

So far Nam looks good vort digging more less phasing with pv
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:32 am

The German model has a Godzilla for the area.

The low travels off the coast.

Let's see some good trends today!

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:44 am

06z EPS ENS ouch lol
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 11 Captur13
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