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Long Range Thread 18.0

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:30 pm

Umm... Guys? scratch

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 15317610

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:34 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Umm... Guys? scratch

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 15317610

The EPS definitely looks better each run. It's also pretty cold at the mid levels too. Hmm. Let's see what it looks like in two days.

FWIW, the operational buries NNE. Stowe VT is having some prolific snows this year.

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:37 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Umm... Guys? scratch

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 15317610

The EPS definitely looks better each run.   It's also pretty cold at the mid levels too.  Hmm.  Let's see what it looks like in two days.

FWIW, the operational buries NNE.  Stowe VT is having some prolific snows this year.

Yep, agreed. A couple of those members are eye-popping; def deserves watching as it's still 5-6 days out.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:00 pm

Exciting times actually.

Raging -EPO and possible -NAO. If the NAO ridge trends stronger we could see one of these northern stream clippers blow up off the coast. When's the last time that happened and it dropped 6"+ of snow?

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:03 pm

The PV is under modeled to a degree as the down welling affects are going to grow more robust IMO.

Who says 13 is unlucky?? EPS member show a mighty storm - please weather gods we have been.................................patient?? Exclamation Question
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 Eps_qpf_slp_13_east2_25.thumb.png.ba7c79aa6db0900f5fb440797c976fef

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:24 pm

GEFS - look at that arctic air just behind this Purple lines - IF we can tap that then MOMMA MIA our snow ratios go through da roof!!!


Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 5c4a466f1993d.thumb.png.37b9a286481851fd9ec15a9168396dbd

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Post by Smitty623 Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:29 pm

It’s it’s Beautiful 😍

Sent from Topic'it App

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:05 pm

EPS is juicy. Like the signal. Not worries about OP here but ENS howingbthe transition and upper atmospheric evolution.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 5c4a6710
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 5c4a6711Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 5c4a6710
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 5c4a6711

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:21 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS - look at that arctic air just behind this Purple lines - IF we can tap that then MOMMA MIA our snow ratios go through da roof!!!


Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 5c4a466f1993d.thumb.png.37b9a286481851fd9ec15a9168396dbd

mugs how come I can not see the map?
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:22 pm

Mom don't know??

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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:05 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
amugs wrote:GEFS - look at that arctic air just behind this Purple lines - IF we can tap that then MOMMA MIA our snow ratios go through da roof!!!


Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 5c4a466f1993d.thumb.png.37b9a286481851fd9ec15a9168396dbd

mugs how come I can not see the map?

I can't either, can't see some of the others as well.

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  1.5"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:16 am

Next Tuesday/Wednesday is getting more interesting. Can low pressure form on baroclinic zone off Delmarva and intensify rapidly? That kind of scenario usually produces the goods.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:05 am

Classic:
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 DxwXJzeWwAAujbX

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:12 am

BOOM! - this is not the fantasy maps we have seen all winter- this is the real deal - the boy who cried.......................wolf

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 0E999AFA-6E56-443D-BDD6-EAF3C55AED1C.gif.a611d98e8e753f88b4f7241e59da80af

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 26, 2019 12:58 am

Who wants 45 more days of winter??
cheers cheers THIS GUY RIGHT HERE!!
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 Img_2022

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:29 am

Latest from Isotherm.  Still believe blocking will occur.  In my mind that is the only way we have any chance at some good snow before winter's end.  I love the work he does though regardless of whether or not this winter totally skunks us.

Re: concerns pertaining to the lack of robust negative NAO initiation thus far:



1) Recall my last update, I noted that we would be entering a period of destructive interference post the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm, due largely to poor tropical forcing. I expected this to yield a rainstorm for the Northeast coast for the most recent event, which did occur.



2) The development of constructive interference, whereby the troposphere and stratosphere act harmoniously, was said to return after the 25th, in the last week of January.



3) The NAM has been negative; however, the weakly negative NAO ineffectual to date; why is that the case?



4) There's a misconception that the stratosphere entirely governs the progression of the NAO modality, but that is erroneous...



If tropospheric receptivity is such that conditions are unpropitious for -NAO maintenance at the z500 level, it is irrelevant what transpires in the stratosphere



If the stratosphere were entirely governing, we wouldn't have years w/ SSW events such as 2011 in which no tropospheric blocking resulted.



5) So, the stratosphere plays a significant role, but until the rossby wave train is oriented such that a proper block can retrogress into Greenland, it won't occur.



6) The etiology of the destructive interference lies principally in the propensity for upper divergence [convective generation] near the Maritime Continent.



7) This has ripple effects. It disrupts the canonical Nino-esque angular momentum cycle, by creating easterly trades in the central Pacific, lowering momentum, and inducing positive deposits in high-latitude regions which activate the polar jet such that the flow becomes too fast



8] Extratropical momentum pulsing attempts to countervail, but until the Maritime Continent convection [which has also been obviating proper SOI response] diminishes, a strongly negative NAO will not initiate



This is changing.



A weakly negative / transient NAO develops later this week, which could play a salutary role in the resolution of the 27-28th winter storm threat; although, it is largely EPO/PNA driven. Usual caveats apply, but it is certainly a threat to monitor, and the most conducive threat to date.



The Maritime Continent divergence will finally subside by the end of January. This is evinced quite ostensibly on the chi z200 propagation plots, and the easterly negative trades will subside as well, permitting emergence of more classical walker cell forcing.



It's not necessary the MJO itself, but overall divergence has been antithetical to proper +AAM transport through the sub-tropics and consequently negative deposits poleward.



Conclusion: The atmospheric pattern has changed and is much colder. The NAM has reversed, but the spasmodic NAO has permitted rainstorms for the East Coast [expected for the last event]. A real negative NAO will finally emerge as tropospheric receptivity increases dramatically by February 1st.



Notes and asides: Snowfall timing is the most difficult parameter of a long range forecast. However we get there - we get there. A forecaster should not be penalized for snows not being "evenly spread throughout the winter." If the final tally at the winter's end is close, then it's a good forecast. So, while there's been no snow to date, that will simply have to be dealt with. That doesn't intimate non-emergence prospectively. Key indicators and atmospheric changes were foreseen, and now we will watch the final dominos this week. I have read some comments here and there across the boards that forecasters promised a historic winter, etc., or a historic winter period; I simply want to make clear that those words never emerged from my end. My winter snowfall forecast from November for NYC-area was 37-47". This is still attainable.



Tom

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:52 am

Not so much LR but LR back in time, look at the SSW event all the warm colors of oranges, red etc Amazing over time from Ventrice

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 Img_2023

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:57 am

But this is LR a VEI level 4 Volcabin Eruption that took ace for a couple of days and the last one was Jan 9th that lasted a day that was a VEI level from the same Volcanoe!! The affects will be felt down the road. How much remains to be seen. A major Volcanic Eruption of a VEI level 5 to occur by the end of summer/mid fall. This propensity of activity and strength is ramping up in a big way overall and all indication are that in will do so as we move forward in time. Not one piece of scientific data says otherwise at this point.

https://electroverse.net/manam-explodes-to-16-7-km-55000-ft-a-s-l-evacuation-order-issued/?utm_source=ReviveOldPost&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ReviveOldPost

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:13 am

I'm reading conflicting forecasts in the long range for the month of February on this forum and over at American WX. When the models change on a dime, who can blame anyone on what might occur the upcoming second half of winter. There remains a few factors that need to be addressed. The most important one is the MJO which has been in warm phases for the most part with brief intervals of phases 8 and 1. We need the MJO in phase 8 and 1 or COD to have any chance to salvage winter. Another factor going against us is the raging Pacific jet. Every time a ridge or -EPO tries to develop, it gets bowled over by the jet. Last but not least, do we finally get a -NAO to develop? Models keep hinting at it, yet once we get inside 5 days it gets pushed back further in time. As you can see I'm not optimistic of a turnaround for the better. More like cautiously hopeful. At least its good to see Tom still on board.
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:06 pm

You warmisters gonna be knocked out by this

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 F1930AEE-2A4D-4AD9-A645-0167F1234060.png.019e4821ac2710fa4ce1b6fc324416f6

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:19 pm

Good news for Feb here and into early March:
1.2 colder adn a wwb in Nino 4 and 3.4
1.2
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 Nino12.png.354cbdd76d9db78fc9e14aadf9368fe0

3.4
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 Nino34

SOI going Negative as well - another good sign

MJO
GEFS
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 NCPE_phase_21m_full

EURO - can't get much more different than this two amplificatoins
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

This takes us to phase 7

From Bring Back 62-63 write up - encouraging:
There are still two mores ingredients. One of these is the ENSO state with weak El Nino conditions considered to be most favourable for tropical forcing. A WWB (westerly wind burst) is underway in the western tropical Pacific and progressing steadily eastwards. This will be associated with an upturn in the Nino region temperatures which is just getting underway right now. The final ingredient is FT (frictional torque) which has been stubbornly -ve all month - in fact it was last +ve at the equator and northern tropics in late December. FT has been rising for the last 3 or 4 days and on the Jan 24th chart (always produced 2 days afterward) it was heading towards +ve territory and is probably already there. +ve FT really assists with the tropical forcing (caused by the stresses created by tropical convection and changes in AAM). It should help with the strat/trop coupling down there which may well see this El Nino event finally get over the line with a sustained period of Nino conditions as well as contributing to the overall poleward push of momentum.



So, it looks like all this is finally occurring with a much greater degree of harmony. The AO (Arctic oscillation) is already going -ve and should go more strongly -ve next week with HP showing up near the pole. The PNA (Pacific North American oscillation) is also going +ve with the Aleutian LP setting up. The down stream pattern of ridges and blocks then develops in conjunction with the forced extensive HLB from the Arctic. The Canadian PV should weaken and be pushed further south. HP is likely to rise in the Greenland area. Siberian, Arctic and Scandinavian HPs should all be seen at stages and the NAO (North Atlantic oscillation) should at last go -ve. For Europe and the UK an extended period of north easterlies or easterlies are favoured. The current LPs with increasingly polar maritime and Arctic incursions in it should be forced southwards or south eastwards. Given the long SSW event in the strat,, we can expect these surface conditions to dominate for much of February and perhaps well into March too. Eastern CONUS and Canada should see even more extensive and prolonged cold. Just how much snow any of us see will be decided closer to the events but all of us should see a fair amount of it.



So, once again, I've been very bullish. I do hope that we do not see another "curve ball" - but this time it does look like our patience will be fully rewarded. Those with model fatigue need to recharge their batteries. We can expect the models to pick up on these imminent changes increasingly during the next few runs. In fact there has already been a shift. UKMO looks to be the most progressive with D6 Arctic blocking (and consistent with their extended outlook). Exciting times ahead.



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Post by lglickman1 Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:48 pm

It seems that this week's cold temps are going to be short lived. Do we expect significant cold to return at any point?

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:32 am

lglickman1 wrote:It seems that this week's cold temps are going to be short lived.  Do we expect significant cold to return at any point?

Significant cold? Maybe. Cold enough to be workable for renewed snow chances? Yes. Nobody freak at the current EURO H5 or even GEFS progs *at face value*. The pattern depicted WILL BE one of feast or famine, with a gradient-type appearance. If aligned properly we can walk the line of being “warm” yet still cold enough to snow; and potentially snow often as waves keep ejecting along the boundary. Only briefly looked at some things, but if was a betting man, watch for any/everything beyond Day 5 to trend colder for our region. How much so remains to be seen, but so far this winter, I’d take my chances. Ta-ta for now........and this was just a cameo. For now. So don’t all get too excited. Yet Wink

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:15 am

rb924119 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:It seems that this week's cold temps are going to be short lived.  Do we expect significant cold to return at any point?

Significant cold? Maybe. Cold enough to be workable for renewed snow chances? Yes. Nobody freak at the current EURO H5 or even GEFS progs *at face value*. The pattern depicted WILL BE one of feast or famine, with a gradient-type appearance. If aligned properly we can walk the line of being “warm” yet still cold enough to snow; and potentially snow often as waves keep ejecting along the boundary. Only briefly looked at some things, but if was a betting man, watch for any/everything beyond Day 5 to trend colder for our region. How much so remains to be seen, but so far this winter, I’d take my chances. Ta-ta for now........and this was just a cameo. For now. So don’t all get too excited. Yet Wink

Thanks for the cameo Ray - much appreciated and your insight is always welcomed!! Ta ta for now - Christopher Robin and the 100 Acre Woods man!!

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:17 pm

Peeps,

I know I know - you will be like teh boy who cried snwo - 1st of all I am 49 and yes tehre is alittle boy in me for snow - this looks 9gazillionx better than we have seen all dam winter from pro met Snowmanian:

The westerly wind burst is already occurring right now at the Dateline, and is why the models are already picking up on its responses and thus shifting to a better Pacific pattern. This is a good sign.

And MJO going into 8
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 ECMF_phase_51m_small

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:02 pm

Don’t look now, but the EURO Op and Control show some light breaking through the current abyss. Just sayin’.......Wink some discussion is better than none, no?

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 18 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Grselig Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:Don’t look now, but the EURO Op and Control show some light breaking through the current abyss. Just sayin’.......Wink some discussion is better than none, no?

Its winter. One actual storm is better than none. Even if nothing works out, its more fun the track, than have no hope. Good to see you back.
Grselig
Grselig
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