Long Range Thread 18.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Is there any signal for a possible event for next Wednesday, the 20th?
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
SENJsnowman wrote:LOL, for the first time all winter, we may actually have a low pop of the coast right at the NC/VA border.
But don't you worry winter weather lovers, the mid levels are working hard to ensure that this system gets blown straight out to sea (in black- nice jet stream, btw!), rather than phased up the coast (in red, not that it's cold enough to snow anyway).
I believe N & W of NYC will be cold enough to eke out a couple of inches, S of NYC and NYC itself probably not.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
All three events this coming week Sunday night into Monday, Wednesday and Friday have perfectly placed surface high pressure to our North all areas would see snow in this setup at least at the beginning. The Monday event has been trending wetter the Wednesday event trending colder and the one for Friday which was a cutter a few days ago now showing weak low pressure running into high pressure to our North. Doesn't look like any big storms but at least we have something to track me personally I'd rather have 1 to 3 3 to 6 in events every other day then a Godzilla storm once a winter
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
algae888 wrote:All three events this coming week Sunday night into Monday, Wednesday and Friday have perfectly placed surface high pressure to our North all areas would see snow in this setup at least at the beginning. The Monday event has been trending wetter the Wednesday event trending colder and the one for Friday which was a cutter a few days ago now showing weak low pressure running into high pressure to our North. Doesn't look like any big storms but at least we have something to track me personally I'd rather have 1 to 3 3 to 6 in events every other day then a Godzilla storm once a winter
Al, Mecs and Hecs chasing has been the norm for peeps this last decade but 1-3, 3-6 events are fine by me - any snow is good snow
This is keeping me in it till the bitter end now
Big Positive building into the West Coast at the end of next week
And the GEFS have a recurving Typhoon at the middle of next week - IF That comes to fruition then we reshuffle the PAC and boot the N PNA , move teh rough to teh east of Hawaii, pump the EPO and the trough rebounds into the NE. - Wish casting BUT possibility.
Phase 8 helping beat this ridge back?? From 33&rain
Watch March comes in like a Lion - book it and ends like a
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Wednesday storm seems to have some potential. Unlike last Tuesday (for now) it appears to have a longer initial period of snow associated with it before any changeover. Not that it would be a major storm, but it could at least produce more front-end snow, and less sleet/frz, than last Tuesday. Even if it is still a threat to changeover eventually.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
billg315 wrote:Wednesday storm seems to have some potential. Unlike last Tuesday (for now) it appears to have a longer initial period of snow associated with it before any changeover. Not that it would be a major storm, but it could at least produce more front-end snow, and less sleet/frz, than last Tuesday. Even if it is still a threat to changeover eventually.
To me it has a lot of potential. 50-50 low and -nao making this colder solution and less progressive. One of the more interesting setups all winter imo. But is this modeling accurate? Need more runs to have some confidence.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
algae888 wrote:All three events this coming week Sunday night into Monday, Wednesday and Friday have perfectly placed surface high pressure to our North all areas would see snow in this setup at least at the beginning. The Monday event has been trending wetter the Wednesday event trending colder and the one for Friday which was a cutter a few days ago now showing weak low pressure running into high pressure to our North. Doesn't look like any big storms but at least we have something to track me personally I'd rather have 1 to 3 3 to 6 in events every other day then a Godzilla storm once a winter
I agree 1000% Al.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
The nam end rgem continued to Trend wetter for the Sunday night or early Monday event. 18z Nam drops 3 to 4 in of snow for the first event of this week could be in for a surprise I'm hearing February 94 analogues for this coming week
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
We should probably start a separate thread for this system as it's not long range anymore
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Al go right ahead and start the thread on Sun/Mon my man bring it home!!
We'll need one Sunday for Wednesday and Thursday as well. If the 1st one drags the barclonic zone a bit further south things could be more interesting
We'll need one Sunday for Wednesday and Thursday as well. If the 1st one drags the barclonic zone a bit further south things could be more interesting
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Right now, the weather channel has a coating to inch mixed precip sunday into Monday and all snow projected for my area next wednesday day with 3-5 inches listed. There is some changeover late and then 41 Thursday. Interesting...
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
For the Hudson Valley Wed...any idea about a start time? I see "...before midnight" but I would appreciate anyone's insight
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
And now we see the PAC looking to cooperase late Feb and through the 1st two weeks of March, IF it is true. It was suppose to be later this week and weekend and now of course it's mid week next week.
Big EPO and a PNA spike really? Is this true? And a trough east of Hawaii? To good to be true. Watch it be dry LOL!
Big EPO and a PNA spike really? Is this true? And a trough east of Hawaii? To good to be true. Watch it be dry LOL!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
WOW - could the euro be right for once this winter
Reason being we are in phase 8 going into the"holy grail" of 1 ,2 and then 3
MJO
[img][/img]
The typhoon needs to recurve in he PAC to help our pattern as well
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1097962096346759172/photo/1
EPO
PNA - FINALLLY!!!!!!!
Lets see if this actually occurs next wek
Reason being we are in phase 8 going into the"holy grail" of 1 ,2 and then 3
MJO
[img][/img]
The typhoon needs to recurve in he PAC to help our pattern as well
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1097962096346759172/photo/1
EPO
PNA - FINALLLY!!!!!!!
Lets see if this actually occurs next wek
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
EPS - please for once be right!!
A SCAN block that retrogrades and connects with teh EPO over teh top - what this winter was to be since Dec with the CANSIPS, EURO, JAMSTEC all had a similar look and were head faked by this
A SCAN block that retrogrades and connects with teh EPO over teh top - what this winter was to be since Dec with the CANSIPS, EURO, JAMSTEC all had a similar look and were head faked by this
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Amugs, what does that all mean?
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Irish wrote:Amugs, what does that all mean?
Irish, this means that we may finally have a workable Pacific and Atlantic for winter storms not slop ones but good ol fashion snowstorms, possible coastals IF the conditions hold at the end of this model run time and improve.
That is it in a nutshell.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Another view - what a 180 this would be for winter only IF - possible yes as the pattern transitions but we'll see
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Thx for the explanations amugs. We can only hope.
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Gotta admit that I’m not really a fan of the setup for the March event at first look. Need time to look more deeply before I can fully commit, but I’m probably 60-65% against it right now based on what I see. Opinion, of course.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
rb924119 wrote:Gotta admit that I’m not really a fan of the setup for the March event at first look. Need time to look more deeply before I can fully commit, but I’m probably 60-65% against it right now based on what I see. Opinion, of course.
rb, I'd love to dismiss your opinion as just being overly pessimistic. After all, I think you've liked one event this year. But then I think about how every event didn't pan out, mostly for the exact reasons you listed at the beginning. So, I guess I'll accept your opinion as being 'properly' pessimistic! ha ha
I'm going to first look at the 500 mb level to see if I can see it a good basis for pessimism.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
SENJsnowman wrote:rb924119 wrote:Gotta admit that I’m not really a fan of the setup for the March event at first look. Need time to look more deeply before I can fully commit, but I’m probably 60-65% against it right now based on what I see. Opinion, of course.
rb, I'd love to dismiss your opinion as just being overly pessimistic. After all, I think you've liked one event this year. But then I think about how every event didn't pan out, mostly for the exact reasons you listed at the beginning. So, I guess I'll accept your opinion as being 'properly' pessimistic! ha ha
I'm going to first look at the 500 mb level to see if I can see it a good basis for pessimism.
I’d give it about 4 days before getting too optimistic or pessimistic about first week of March. There’s a potential for something light end of February. It will be cold most likely to begin March and honestly after first week of March spring may arrive.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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.
heehaw, i get that and believe me, I'm not very concerned with the chances of it snowing two weekends from now. Since we only get 2-4" snowfalls this winter, it's hard to get hyped outside of 48 hrs, maybe even 24. lol
But I'm having fun figuring this stuff out, so here goes.
Great news...a low forms off the coast of NC/VA overnight on Sat Mar 1. And it's cold. But at this time, trough is still positive, so it goes ots just enuff to miss us:
Then the trough goes negative juuuuuuuuust in time to bring the low up the coast and slam the Charles River basin area.
So, now the question is, why does the trough swing so late?
Do we have to look at the locations of the ridge out west and the blocking high trough to the east and the forces causing those placements?
But I'm having fun figuring this stuff out, so here goes.
Great news...a low forms off the coast of NC/VA overnight on Sat Mar 1. And it's cold. But at this time, trough is still positive, so it goes ots just enuff to miss us:
Then the trough goes negative juuuuuuuuust in time to bring the low up the coast and slam the Charles River basin area.
So, now the question is, why does the trough swing so late?
Do we have to look at the locations of the ridge out west and the blocking high trough to the east and the forces causing those placements?
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Just my opinion here. At this range I wouldn’t necessarily look at an operational run. I would try to see if ensembles of a model have a storm signal. There are some which do have a signal beginning of March. The op runs not before 120 hours can they be trusted even 500 MB.
I would also consider joining a premium network where mets go very in depth about pattern recognition and interpretations of 500 MB. Most you can subscribe monthly.
Some here may subscribe to weatherbell. joe bastardi is very knowledgeable about pattern recognition.
I would also consider joining a premium network where mets go very in depth about pattern recognition and interpretations of 500 MB. Most you can subscribe monthly.
Some here may subscribe to weatherbell. joe bastardi is very knowledgeable about pattern recognition.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
That makes a lot sense heehaw- long range/mid range/short range guidance
just life upper level/mid level/surface guidance.
I think for this winter, I'll keep it to 5 days in and 500mb and below (also, the free stuff lol)...there'e more than enough moving parts on the table already!
just life upper level/mid level/surface guidance.
I think for this winter, I'll keep it to 5 days in and 500mb and below (also, the free stuff lol)...there'e more than enough moving parts on the table already!
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
The EPO on the GEFS tanks during the 1st week of March and the EPO on the EPS also goes way negative.
The 1st week of March will be the best show of the winter for many who haven't seen a lot of snow. The PNA also looks improved by then.
After the 1st week, there are signs of winter being over but that is still far away.
The 1st week of March will be the best show of the winter for many who haven't seen a lot of snow. The PNA also looks improved by then.
After the 1st week, there are signs of winter being over but that is still far away.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
SENJsnowman wrote:heehaw, i get that and believe me, I'm not very concerned with the chances of it snowing two weekends from now. Since we only get 2-4" snowfalls this winter, it's hard to get hyped outside of 48 hrs, maybe even 24. lol
But I'm having fun figuring this stuff out, so here goes.
Great news...a low forms off the coast of NC/VA overnight on Sat Mar 1. And it's cold. But at this time, trough is still positive, so it goes ots just enuff to miss us:
Then the trough goes negative juuuuuuuuust in time to bring the low up the coast and slam the Charles River basin area.
So, now the question is, why does the trough swing so late?
Do we have to look at the locations of the ridge out west and the blocking high trough to the east and the forces causing those placements?
Nice analysis and you are pretty much spot on here excect because its 200+hrs out doing an anlaysis like this regarding the energy at 500mb on an Operational model is futile as it will change 15x's over between now and the next 3-5days. Just to show you the comparison between the GFS op and Euro Op regarding timing placement etc of the energy for the same time frame here it is.
Attempting to analyze it at this lead time is not worth the effort. Here are the images for the Ensembles, EPS and GEFS respectively. The trends to the anomalies is some of the areas I have outlined is what Id look at to see if this even shapes up for even a chance. If we see positive trends, ie more ridging into the PNA region and or EPO/NAO regions, or the development of a 50/50 low, is what Id look at. When we get to day 5-7 I then start to look at the differences between the GFS and Euro ops regarding these same features compared to the enseble means. I also "start" to look at the individual pieces of energy. Then 3-5days I start to shift away from the ensembles and look for consistencies to the big areas like exact trough axis, ridge axis, intensities of these areas etc as well as where the energies are.
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