JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

@Frank_Wx wrote:Part of the story - and I am surprised how little its been talked about here - is the life threatening cold to follow this storm on Monday. Areas who do see 6"+ of snow and some ice better consider shoveling as it's falling from the sky. Because it will freeze over. Temps valid 7am Monday are in the single digits, with wind chills from -15 to -25 below. INSANITY!!

Yeah, Lee actually mentioned last night that the big story of the storm in these parts could very well be the flash freeze.

What are the chances that this continues to pull down south and east to hit the Jersey Shore. The models have all(for the most part) moved S&E very quickly it seems. What are the chances to get a warning level snow fall 6+ to the coast??

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It's such a thread the needle timing scenario, but the players are all coming into focus. When will we start getting better data on the pacific energy?

The GFS, always needing to be different, has decided to head NW with the bulk of the snow.

Im sorry when looking at the 500mb progression vs the surface LP track progression there is no way the surface low jumps almost due north from central virginia by hr 84 into the HV by hr 90.  Sorrry GFS is out to lunch.

I think the Gfs is the outlier I think we have more support for a storm in our favor correct?

@sroc4 wrote:Im sorry when looking at the 500mb progression vs the surface LP track progression there is no way the surface low jumps almost due north from central virginia by hr 84 into the HV by hr 90.  Sorrry GFS is out to lunch.

That's why its affectionately known as the GooFuS. The sad part is it might be better than the FV3.

I don't know who Lee is, but I suddenly think he's a heck of a guy.

@TheAresian wrote:I don't know who Lee is, but I suddenly think he's a heck of a guy.

He's the Chief Meteorologist at ABC 7 New York

Gotcha. I called my mom to update her on the storm and she told me that she saw one forecast that said the storm could drop anywhere from 18"-28". I know Ray said that this storm could drop a ton of snow, but even the most bullish of estimates haven't put 28 on the board.

Thank you for the explanation Frank...

@SoulSingMG wrote:Lee's early call

I hope this changes for us soul!!! We are right on the fringe of the ice or rain. I would at least like to be further up in the prolonged icing area, though to get to the heaviest snow area looks difficult, we may be dealing with a major ice storm if he is right. Granted if its sleet it won't really cause any issues. But so far maps are not showing sleet, as stated this wont be found until we are very close in, I cannot wait to see what insane numbers the 3km NAM has for snow and ice lol

so despite all the trends in the right direction the coast is still in for a mostly non-snow event?

NWS updated their Saturday night forecast for me: snow transitioning to a wintry mix. 8-12 inches of snow and ice expected.

Big increase from the 3-5 they were predicting this morning

@lglickman1 wrote:so despite all the trends in the right direction the coast is still in for a mostly non-snow event?

There are still 2 days of trends. Good or bad. If we have another 24 hours of trends in our favor then we will be in the heavy snow down here also

@SoulSingMG wrote:Lee's on board

If Lee is on board, then I'll start taking it a bit more serious. He tends to be a buzzkill at times when it comes to amounts but I find that when he is, it's usually because he's right lol.

Wunderground Weather is reporting 8-12" for my area. I'm trying to follow along with the models albeit, I'm just learning but I just don't see that much snow.



Saturday Night  100% / 8.8 in
Watching a potential winter storm. Snow in the evening will give way to a mixture of rain and snow overnight. Low 31F. Winds ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow accumulating 8 to 12 inches.

@SENJsnowman wrote:To all the Shore folk...the odds are stacked against us, but not by much...anymore. As a Coastie, I don't think we could have paid for a better 36 hours of runs since the 00z runs of Monday night.

At some point the S/E trend will stop, for us it's just a matter of when does that happen. But as I understand, the pieces are there for the track to come all the way down to the Ocean, which would mean a clean mothra + from about the Ocean/Atlantic County line on up. With up much higher potential, esp.  as you go north.

My advice: let the body in motion stay in motion...and lay low as far the as imby requests. That's what we've been doing so far, and it's working...

Fingers crossed the trends continue I have seen in past were we get the goods in this setup. But their appears to be a warm wedge in the 850s.

@skinsfan1177 wrote:

@SENJsnowman wrote:To all the Shore folk...the odds are stacked against us, but not by much...anymore. As a Coastie, I don't think we could have paid for a better 36 hours of runs since the 00z runs of Monday night.

At some point the S/E trend will stop, for us it's just a matter of when does that happen. But as I understand, the pieces are there for the track to come all the way down to the Ocean, which would mean a clean mothra + from about the Ocean/Atlantic County line on up. With up much higher potential, esp.  as you go north.

My advice: let the body in motion stay in motion...and lay low as far the as imby requests. That's what we've been doing so far, and it's working...

Fingers crossed the trends continue I have seen in past were we get the goods in this setup. But their appears to be a warm wedge in the 850s.

Yes fibers crossed

Two top.analogs, Feb 2007 and Jan 1994 set ups simar.
ZR line was down to Pt pleasant with Sleet and ZR a majority of the storm. N of I80 was snow with a period of sleet and ZR then back to snow. This was Feb 2007.
Jan 1994 had a driving rainstorm to a massive ice  storm to snow. That isn't the likely scenerio or.progression at this time from the Driscoll Bridge N say or I78.

Significant snow to the coast of NJ not likely unless we see a secondary form or a 50-75 mile shift which who knows but not see it at thistime. Doesn't mean you won't see some wintry back end precip. there. 

GFS is so lost right now and so is its brethren FV3 or Para. Mike would be honking it right now.

Weather Channel currently calling for me to get a minimum of 14" of snow. If that ends up being the max rather than the min, I'll still consider this storm a win.

@TheAresian wrote:Weather Channel currently calling for me to get a minimum of 14" of snow. If that ends up being the max rather than the min, I'll still consider this storm a win.

Can't get too greedy!