JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Now I beg the question. Do I stay home or go to Binghamton. Classes start Tuesday so I have to drive back Monday the latest. But there is something about riding out a storm at home haha

docstox12 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Warmest frame of the NAM

Wow, if this verifies, I have major icing problems here in the LHV.UGH!!!

Seems that is the biggest threat as of now. NAM taints well into Massachusetts

aiannone wrote:Now I beg the question. Do I stay home or go to Binghamton. Classes start Tuesday so I have to drive back Monday the latest. But there is something about riding out a storm at home haha

why would you want to stay for a rain storm?

Doc, regarding the ice I think we’re right in the stink of it.

Frank_Wx wrote:Not a great start to the night

I’m not worried. With the SREFs south, and this still being well toward the end of then NAM’s range, it too must run through its windshield wiper phase.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

aiannone wrote:Now I beg the question. Do I stay home or go to Binghamton. Classes start Tuesday so I have to drive back Monday the latest. But there is something about riding out a storm at home haha

why would you want to stay for a rain storm?

I’m hoping to get the thrill of a rain to snow or ice event lol

aiannone wrote:

would you be in that?

aiannone wrote:

That would bury me in the heart of the ZR. Time to reserve that generator...

weatherwatchermom wrote:

aiannone wrote:

would you be in that?

No mom. He’s out in northeastern LI. I on the other hand in northern Nassau about 25 miles west of Alex would be. I’ll show you

Luckily the 00z ICON held serve. This is the warmest frame.



Snow map...most of that is ice for CNJ/NNJ/NYC/LI. Better snow map is not out yet.

docstox12 wrote:

dkodgis wrote:Doc, regarding the ice I think we’re right in the stink of it.

Not good, Damian! Ice is NOT nice.

I'm gonna test run my generator tomorrow and get some gasoline. With temps forecast in single digits, this could be very dangerous. Hoping the ice does not pan out.

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like a good thump of ice on the NAM for jersey

that crushes southern ny too ugg

syosnow94 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

aiannone wrote:

would you be in that?

No mom. He’s out in northeastern LI. I on the other hand in northern Nassau about 25 miles west of Alex would be. I’ll show you

I am literally just to the east of where the ice line ends. In the center of the island on the north shore just to the east of the ice area you can see a little black indent, that's where i am

While ICON may show us what we like at the surface it did take a step backwards aloft. The 00z NAM/ICON runs at 500mb do not excite me. Luckily, the ICON is an example of how we can still produce with a bad set-up aloft. If the surface features are timed well and placed correctly, it could allow a secondary to form.

ICON snow map

00z vs 18z comparison. Clear cut in snow totals

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like a good thump of ice on the NAM for jersey

that crushes southern ny too ugg

That's sleet in the LHV on the warmest frame of the NAM Jman, I would welcome that over freezing rain. On that run no freezing rain gets into HV only sleet. At least unitl the next run.

0z ICON

So Frank if the secondary don’t form we stay basically in the slop?

So Frank if the secondary don’t form we stay basically in the slop?

oldtimer wrote:So Frank if the secondary don’t form we stay basically in the slop?

Most likely there will be no secondary low with this system.

Some models did try to show one at some point but not lately.

I think we somehow need the low to stay well south & east of us to stay cold.

0z GFS running

aiannone wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

aiannone wrote:

would you be in that?

No mom. He’s out in northeastern LI. I on the other hand in northern Nassau about 25 miles west of Alex would be. I’ll show you

I am literally just to the east of where the ice line ends. In the center of the island on the north shore just to the east of the ice area you can see a little black indent, that's where i am

this shows a half inch plus of ice even for NYC. Doc doesn't get as far north as you but man I get crushed. Nj even worse. This swath has been consistent enough to start to get me legitimately concerned for a seriously bad freeing rain ice storm that we haven't seen b4 or at least I haven't. I think checking generators etc if u live in those areas might be a good idea. Living in a building I'm kinda stuck with whatever happens and if we lost power we well may have to go to a hotel as my 5 year old cannot stay in a bone chilling apartmeny. Its freezing in here as it is right now. And that arctic blast is not playing.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like a good thump of ice on the NAM for jersey

that crushes southern ny too ugg

That's sleet in the LHV on the warmest frame of the NAM Jman, I would welcome that over freezing rain. On that run no freezing rain gets into HV only sleet. At least unitl the next run.

yes on that map but you also saw the jam frz map from pivotal weather doesn't get up to you but us down here not so lucky.

aiannone wrote:0z ICON

Frank said nyc area is nearly all ice so does that mean everything encased in 2 plus inches of ice?!! Or sleet too as doc said sleet is safer. But Damn I just can't believe the persistence of a potential ice storm sorry if I say it a million times its just hard to believe. Even frank said he wasn't buying the idea yet. Earler. I dunno what he thinks now.