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JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:52 am

The watch issued for the western front is calling for 12-20". I know I'm being greedy at this point, but if this storm isn't bigger than November's then I am going to be seriously disappointed.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:53 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?

I’m your huckleberry Skully

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 A55d7410
can't read it

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:14 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?

I’m your huckleberry Skully

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 A55d7410

YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED  all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha

Jimmy I do concur overall with this map after reading analysis this morning, I think ice is going to be a problem somewhere on this map and a serious one.
Steve D is so right about the this arctic air in January though I think he can be a buffoon at times (some say all the time).


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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:19 am

syos..you are evil... Laughing
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:19 am

amugs wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?

I’m your huckleberry Skully

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 A55d7410

YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED  all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha

Jimmy I do concur overall with this map after reading analysis this morning, I think ice is going to be a problem somewhere on this map and a serious one.
Steve D is so right about the this arctic air in January though I think he can be a buffoon at times (some say all the time).


This

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:20 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?

I’m your huckleberry Skully

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 A55d7410

YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED  all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha

Good Lord this makes the Saatchi blurred faces look amateur in comparison.

I bid $10,000 to start. Does it come with a frame?
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:21 am

From NFSwx
H ethinks thermal profiles aren't there for a 1-2" ice storm - still this would be bad!
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 DxHkvSWUUAInTxo

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:27 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?

I’m your huckleberry Skully

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 A55d7410

YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED  all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha

Good Lord this makes the Saatchi blurred faces look amateur in comparison.

I bid $10,000 to start. Does it come with a frame?
will the picture shred once the gavel is hit with the final bid?
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Post by Scullybutcher Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:31 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?

I’m your huckleberry Skully

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 A55d7410

YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED  all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha
I’ll take it
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Post by Grselig Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:33 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?

I’m your huckleberry Skully

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 A55d7410

YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED  all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha

Good Lord this makes the Saatchi blurred faces look amateur in comparison.

I bid $10,000 to start. Does it come with a frame?
Mondrian $5mm. Plus extra 1 if accurate
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:35 am

The NAM is coming in warm.

There will be a nice front-end thump for NNJ, NYC, LI but for CNJ on south there is not much of it.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:38 am

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_44

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_45

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_47

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_asnow_neus_24

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Post by ndionyssiou Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:46 am

I'm going to the Maniscalco show at 10pm on Saturday at MSG and am coming from Morris County NJ. What is the timing of this storm? Starting to get concerned. TIA.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:47 am

If I am reading the soundings correctly I would estimate 2-4" of snow for NYC before changing to a very cold rain.

Just N&W of there it looks like 4-8" before changing to some ice then rain.

Then well N&W it is an 8"+ snow with ice and minimal rain.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:50 am

Whomever is between the 20-25 degree contours are in for pretty bad icing.

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_T2m_contour_neus_47

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_T2m_contour_neus_48

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_T850_neus_47

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_T850_neus_48

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:51 am

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 5ctVVdN

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:51 am

I will have a first call snow map later today

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:56 am

Frank  it is a warm nose punch at the 850 levels but the surface reflection as I show below BL is still below freezing and we have a major ice issues ala Feb 2007 and 1994.
I78 and North are snow front end thump to major ice to back end snow. The coast is looking for a SE jog and it still may occur but this run is in line with most other model runs except the GFS and UKIE - which I am hoping and praying comes to fruition for all here. Well shall see.

Here is a MAJOR ISSUE if they verify from 33&rain
ICE ACCUMULATIONS
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Zr_acc.us_ne

2M Temps cold
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_T2m_neus_48


DP temps cold
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_Td2m_neus_47

850 warm = ce sceenrio -sleet fest and ZR
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namconus_T850_neus_47

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 5ctVVdN

I should plan a trip to Albany or Saratoga Springs this weekend. Looks uglier and uglier for us with the ice and sleet.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:04 am

The center of the 850mb low tracks well west of NYC driving the warm nose far N&W.  Vs the track of the surface Low which is S of LI.  If the 850mb surface low is modeled incorrectly then so is the thermal profile.  Recall my post from earlier.  Euro tracks it over NYC.


JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Nam_hr11
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namcon10
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 16 Namcon11


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:06 am; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by jimv45 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:05 am

yea cp we will get a good front end thump, then the power companies better be ready with bad icing.

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:17 am

If The NAM verifies (hopefully it won’t) then the snowlovers in this board are in for MAJOR disappointment. MAJOR!!!in an overall very disappointing winter

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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:22 am

12z icon has the low over north Carolina and then develops a second wave along the front and rides up the coast. precip comes in quicker and hot good front and back end snows
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:24 am

The icon probably best case scenario for our area. Very entertaining 12Z run.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:25 am

1.Great discussion Scott and Frank
2. Never underestimate the ferocity of strong warm air advective snows out front
3. SREFs still south/colder than most guidance is a red flag
4. 12z ICON (for what little it’s worth)

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:25 am

algae888 wrote:12z icon has the low over north Carolina and then develops a second wave along the front and rides up the coast. precip comes in quicker and hot good front and back end snows

Yeah, ICON and UKIE probably the best. Looks like lots of ice on ICON as well, temperatures never get to freezing

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:28 am

rb924119 wrote:1.Great discussion Scott and Frank
2. Never underestimate the ferocity of strong warm air advective snows out front
3. SREFs still south/colder than most guidance is a red flag
4. 12z ICON (for what little it’s worth)
what does number 3 mean
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