JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
The watch issued for the western front is calling for 12-20". I know I'm being greedy at this point, but if this storm isn't bigger than November's then I am going to be seriously disappointed.
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weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
syosnow94 wrote:Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?
I’m your huckleberry Skully
YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha
Jimmy I do concur overall with this map after reading analysis this morning, I think ice is going to be a problem somewhere on this map and a serious one.
Steve D is so right about the this arctic air in January though I think he can be a buffoon at times (some say all the time).
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
syos..you are evil...
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
amugs wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?
I’m your huckleberry Skully
YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha
Jimmy I do concur overall with this map after reading analysis this morning, I think ice is going to be a problem somewhere on this map and a serious one.
Steve D is so right about the this arctic air in January though I think he can be a buffoon at times (some say all the time).
This
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
syosnow94 wrote:Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?
I’m your huckleberry Skully
YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha
Good Lord this makes the Saatchi blurred faces look amateur in comparison.
I bid $10,000 to start. Does it come with a frame?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
From NFSwx
H ethinks thermal profiles aren't there for a 1-2" ice storm - still this would be bad!
H ethinks thermal profiles aren't there for a 1-2" ice storm - still this would be bad!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
will the picture shred once the gavel is hit with the final bid?CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?
I’m your huckleberry Skully
YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha
Good Lord this makes the Saatchi blurred faces look amateur in comparison.
I bid $10,000 to start. Does it come with a frame?
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
I’ll take itsyosnow94 wrote:Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?
I’m your huckleberry Skully
YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Mondrian $5mm. Plus extra 1 if accurateCPcantmeasuresnow wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Scullybutcher wrote:Who’s going to be the first to take a crack at a map?
I’m your huckleberry Skully
YELLOW. 1-2” snow then rain
GREEN 2-5” snow then mix then rain then backend 1-2” snow
BLUE 5-10” snow then mix then backend 2-3” snow
RED all snow all the time 12-20” highest north
BLACK. All rain all the time. Ha
Good Lord this makes the Saatchi blurred faces look amateur in comparison.
I bid $10,000 to start. Does it come with a frame?
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
The NAM is coming in warm.
There will be a nice front-end thump for NNJ, NYC, LI but for CNJ on south there is not much of it.
There will be a nice front-end thump for NNJ, NYC, LI but for CNJ on south there is not much of it.
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
I'm going to the Maniscalco show at 10pm on Saturday at MSG and am coming from Morris County NJ. What is the timing of this storm? Starting to get concerned. TIA.
ndionyssiou- Posts : 2
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
If I am reading the soundings correctly I would estimate 2-4" of snow for NYC before changing to a very cold rain.
Just N&W of there it looks like 4-8" before changing to some ice then rain.
Then well N&W it is an 8"+ snow with ice and minimal rain.
Just N&W of there it looks like 4-8" before changing to some ice then rain.
Then well N&W it is an 8"+ snow with ice and minimal rain.
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Whomever is between the 20-25 degree contours are in for pretty bad icing.
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
I will have a first call snow map later today
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Frank it is a warm nose punch at the 850 levels but the surface reflection as I show below BL is still below freezing and we have a major ice issues ala Feb 2007 and 1994.
I78 and North are snow front end thump to major ice to back end snow. The coast is looking for a SE jog and it still may occur but this run is in line with most other model runs except the GFS and UKIE - which I am hoping and praying comes to fruition for all here. Well shall see.
Here is a MAJOR ISSUE if they verify from 33&rain
ICE ACCUMULATIONS
2M Temps cold
DP temps cold
850 warm = ce sceenrio -sleet fest and ZR
I78 and North are snow front end thump to major ice to back end snow. The coast is looking for a SE jog and it still may occur but this run is in line with most other model runs except the GFS and UKIE - which I am hoping and praying comes to fruition for all here. Well shall see.
Here is a MAJOR ISSUE if they verify from 33&rain
ICE ACCUMULATIONS
2M Temps cold
DP temps cold
850 warm = ce sceenrio -sleet fest and ZR
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Frank_Wx wrote:
I should plan a trip to Albany or Saratoga Springs this weekend. Looks uglier and uglier for us with the ice and sleet.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:06 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
yea cp we will get a good front end thump, then the power companies better be ready with bad icing.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
If The NAM verifies (hopefully it won’t) then the snowlovers in this board are in for MAJOR disappointment. MAJOR!!!in an overall very disappointing winter
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
12z icon has the low over north Carolina and then develops a second wave along the front and rides up the coast. precip comes in quicker and hot good front and back end snows
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
The icon probably best case scenario for our area. Very entertaining 12Z run.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
1.Great discussion Scott and Frank
2. Never underestimate the ferocity of strong warm air advective snows out front
3. SREFs still south/colder than most guidance is a red flag
4. 12z ICON (for what little it’s worth)
2. Never underestimate the ferocity of strong warm air advective snows out front
3. SREFs still south/colder than most guidance is a red flag
4. 12z ICON (for what little it’s worth)
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
algae888 wrote:12z icon has the low over north Carolina and then develops a second wave along the front and rides up the coast. precip comes in quicker and hot good front and back end snows
Yeah, ICON and UKIE probably the best. Looks like lots of ice on ICON as well, temperatures never get to freezing
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT
what does number 3 meanrb924119 wrote:1.Great discussion Scott and Frank
2. Never underestimate the ferocity of strong warm air advective snows out front
3. SREFs still south/colder than most guidance is a red flag
4. 12z ICON (for what little it’s worth)
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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