JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

syosnow94 wrote:I really feel like there’s too much panic and freaking out over ice in this discussion right now. Relax

A.  Freezing rain forecasts almost always bust low
B.  There’s still 3 sets of model runs before anything is nailed down and we are still trending south as we speak
C.  Load up on wood and booze and ride it out. People have survived for ages. We will too. Relax

Very good points, and they worked...thanks!

Don't know that there has been any panic or freaking out, though, lol but you are right...relax it is...

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:I would say the JMA has trended south today lol

Yes, it has. UKMET HAS ALSO HELD SERVE. HUGE.

Mugs, I disagree with your GFS statement. Positive changes aloft on the GFS of non-negligeable magnitude.

That's good news on the UKMET. Would like to see the EURO come south a little

How important is this if the 850 is still warm?

SENJsnowman wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:I would say the JMA has trended south today lol

Yes, it has. UKMET HAS ALSO HELD SERVE. HUGE.

Mugs, I disagree with your GFS statement. Positive changes aloft on the GFS of non-negligeable magnitude.

That's good news on the UKMET. Would like to see the EURO come south a little

How important is this if the 850 is still warm?

The 850s will be “less warm” lol but also improves chances for significantly under-modeled ageostrophic flow/cold damming

I wouldnt exactly say the Ukie held. It came N in my estimation. surface low Passes over or just S of LI

00z

Nvm on the UK, it has come North a bit. Waiting further maps to confirm how warm/cold.

SENJsnowman wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:I would say the JMA has trended south today lol

Yes, it has. UKMET HAS ALSO HELD SERVE. HUGE.

Mugs, I disagree with your GFS statement. Positive changes aloft on the GFS of non-negligeable magnitude.

That's good news on the UKMET. Would like to see the EURO come south a little

How important is this if the 850 is still warm?

True, with 850s still warm you will get a changeover. So i suppose it's ice compared to rain. But the further south track does help with an initial thump of snow and maybe seeing some snow on the backend like the ICON showed

Ukie actually came in SIGNIFICANTLY NW. Not good

It has been the most consistent and respected southern model. Now we may be seeing troubling signs

billg and CP thanks for the advice re: elevation and snow.

Still holding out hope that I can make it to the city on Sunday. At this point it's not looking good however...

Consensus so far today is that it's looking like this is going to be a far N and W major snowstorm while our area  varies from snow/mix to snow/mix/rain. I was checking NWS map and mix starts to get in the picture up around Livingston Manor and Roscoe.N of that it's all snow 12 to 20 inches.Thats a good 60 miles away from me N and W so it needs to move S and E by a lot to get me out of this slop fest.

i'm hoping the next storm prelimary 1/23 will be a better than this weekend..ughh

syosnow94 wrote:I really feel like there’s too much panic and freaking out over ice in this discussion right now. Relax

A.  Freezing rain forecasts almost always bust low
B.  There’s still 3 sets of model runs before anything is nailed down and we are still trending south as we speak
C.  Load up on wood and booze and ride it out. People have survived for ages. We will too. Relax

Already loaded up on food, booze, wood, and gas in the car. Where I am there is a real concern for the ice. Look up Westwood on google maps, I'm just enough outside NYC that I sometimes get more snow, but I am just close enough to NYC that we get a little on the warmer side, elevation is only 86' so no influence there. Always the battle zone.

doc I agree but I wouldn't call it a slop fest up here,.Temps in the mid 20s after a good thump to start to an ice rink, don't want the ice but it looks like its coming.

The good news is even if this doesn't pan out like people would like we are entering into an active pattern for the remainder of this month and into Feb.

What about the intensity of some of the bands cooling the column and keeping it cold? Could that help prevent freezing rain? I'd rather have sleet, at least it wouldn't be a skating rink

jimv45 wrote:doc I agree but I wouldn't call it a slop fest up here,.Temps in the mid 20s after a good thump to start to an ice rink, don't want the ice but it looks like its coming.

Jim, NWS only has us getting .10-.20 of ice, which still sucks but it could be worse. Most of our precip should be snow and sleet.

yea hyde even though I don't think we get blockbuster totals here it looks to be a nice hit of snow to start, but its the ice that concerns me with teps in the mid 20s and crashing Sunday with sleet and freezing rain.

Channel 7 has their maps up, 3-6" for me, worried about icing

hyde345 wrote:The good news is even if this doesn't pan out like people would like we are entering into an active pattern for the remainder of this month and into Feb.

Problem is most of us on this forum has the attitude of I'll believe when I see it. I know that you need the proper setup for a snowstorm to occur, but there is a certain degree of luck involved too, i.e. timing issues. To this point its been all bad. So its hard to be optimistic.

Me: https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/cb9813a9-aaab-4ed2-8dc0-fc462d36c051

Also me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lpR_2RMZdc

So far today the trends from the last 24 hours have begun to reverse themselves to a warmer solution. If this continues with the Euro at 1 pm today then I’m jumping ship. In that case take my map and toss it

syosnow94 wrote:So far today the trends from the last 24 hours have begun to reverse themselves to a warmer solution. If this continues with the Euro at 1 pm today then I’m jumping ship. In that case take my map and toss it

But I already framed it. I thought we had a deal.

TheAresian wrote:Me: https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/cb9813a9-aaab-4ed2-8dc0-fc462d36c051

Also me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lpR_2RMZdc

When you got it,FLAUNT it!!!

Nobody deserves this storm more than You Aresian, time after time you have seen the Shore and island crew get whacked while you get a dusting.I can't remember when the last time a major snowstorm took the track to hit you area like this one will, it's been years!

@rb I did not post nor comment on the GFS brother - I was teaching about C ...A...D.. which this stomr will have the utmost issue with and only IMO High Res models can sniff out.
Did not like seeing the Ukie jump 100 miles NW adn brings the low over Delaware/Cape May - needed it to stay further South. That woudl still mean above I80 ice issues - soundings will be important with this.
The trend has been to a more icy solution above I80 and warmer for those below I78/Driscoll Bridge.
The snow pattern is just not conducive with this one for one reason or another as goes this winter.
One thing though do not underestimate the CAD sign again for points about i 78 and N.
Back to C....A......D!!

amugs wrote:@rb I did not post nor comment on the GFS brother - I was teaching about C ...A...D.. which this stomr will have the utmost issue with and only IMO High Res models can sniff out.
Did not like seeing the Ukie jump 100 miles NW adn brings the low over Delaware/Cape May - needed it to stay further South. That woudl still mean above I80 ice issues - soundings will be important with this.
The trend has been to a more icy solution above I80 and warmer for those below I78/Driscoll Bridge.
The snow pattern is just not conducive with this one for one reason or another as goes this winter.
One thing though do not underestimate the CAD sign again for points about i 78 and N.
Back to C....A......D!!

Do not worry. At least we will get an inch tonight. Saves us from an F- winter. Now it’s just an F

From Allan Weather - pro met student - excellent work here after digesting the 12z maps:

AND HE said ZR is going to be a major problem - this set up is a deep winter CAD Signature unlike a late Feb or March