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January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:51 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:UKMET actually looks noticeably colder from what can tell so far, but I’m waiting on further maps to confirm.

Ah I see my error here, didn’t realize the forecast time segments changed from the 00z to the 12z lol it is a bit warmer I believe.

A bit?

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

Similar surface track, though, it seems.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:55 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:At what point do we start looking at what is actually happening upstream with the main pieces of energy, and how closely the models are getting those correct?

The 00z model runs last night had proper sampling of the PAC energy. Ever since better sampling we've seen our trends go in the wrong direction. Here is today's 12z EURO:

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5c4217957b9c7


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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:58 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:At what point do we start looking at what is actually happening upstream with the main pieces of energy, and how closely the models are getting those correct?

The 00z model runs last night had proper sampling of the PAC energy. Ever since better sampling we've seen our trends go in the wrong direction. Here is today's 12z EURO:

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5c4217957b9c7


That part I get. But at what point can we look at current observations, say, as the low tracks over the Rocky Mountains or dips down through Texas, and look at where the models had the low at that time, and see for ourselves if the models got it right...and if they didn't...what that difference might mean over the next 24-36 hours?
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:01 pm

I may have to take a trip to LHV or Poconos on this one!

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Post by jimv45 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:02 pm

Boy Euro nothing City south, but still has us north folks in decent snow.

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:04 pm

Something like "here we are at 10:00 PM Friday night...as you can see, the low is currently positioned here...the NAM thought it would be here though, which means it was a bit too slow/too fast in its modeling which may mean xyz for us in 24 hours...whereas the Euro had the low at this point by 10:00PM which means it was off in abc way which might mean xyz for us down the road".

That sort of thing. When can we start looking at what is happening in real time and compare to where the models thought the pieces would be at that time, and see which models are getting it right (if any) and what that might mean for us on Saturday.
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Post by Guest on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:09 pm

Do you mean something like this:

On the Tuesday 12k NAM hr 84, which is today's 12k NAM hr 12, the surface low was half of Oklahoma away. In other words, the surface low on today's 12k NAM is half the state of Oklahoma further along (to the SE) that it was predicted to be on Tuesday.

For what it's worth, the GFS shows something almost identical. The surface low is well ahead of its earlier predicted location. I believe the same holds true at 500mb on both models.

A question for those who know: Is the energy being further along than earlier predicted why phasing is being mentioned now when it seemed much less likely earlier this week?


Last edited by TheAresian on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by hyde345 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:10 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Boy Euro nothing City south, but still has us north folks in decent snow.

That is one extreme temperature gradient. I think we get somewhere between 8 and 12 depending on how much sleet mixes in.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:14 pm

@TheAresian wrote:Do you mean something like this:

On the Tuesday 12k NAM hr 84, which is today's 12k NAM hr 12, the surface low was half of Oklahoma away. In other words, the surface low on today's 12k NAM is half the state of Oklahoma further along (to the SE) that it was predicted to be on Tuesday.

Kind of, but that is still just showing one run of a model to another. What I am asking is, at what point can we look at what is happening in real time, at that very second, and say "the "x" model said this low would be located at point "a" at this exact moment. But the low is actually, right now, located at point "b". Therefore the model was wrong in "this" way which means "this" for us down the line.
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Post by jimv45 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:15 pm

Yea Hyde, You will be on the higher side with me being in the southern part with more mixing i think.

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Post by hyde345 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:16 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Something like "here we are at 10:00 PM Friday night...as you can see, the low is currently positioned here...the NAM thought it would be here though, which means it was a bit too slow/too fast in its modeling which may mean xyz for us in 24 hours...whereas the Euro had the low at this point by 10:00PM which means it was off in abc way which might mean xyz for us down the road".

That sort of thing. When can we start looking at what is happening in real time and compare to where the models thought the pieces would be at that time, and see which models are getting it right (if any) and what that might mean for us on Saturday.


I think this will start tonight after 00z runs.
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Post by DAYBLAZER on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:21 pm

Interesting on that EURO snowmap totals-- it has sussex county nj anywhere from 8 (low end) to as much as 15 inches of snow. That's actually more than I thought. And quite a big range for one single county.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:36 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:At what point do we start looking at what is actually happening upstream with the main pieces of energy, and how closely the models are getting those correct?

The 00z model runs last night had proper sampling of the PAC energy. Ever since better sampling we've seen our trends go in the wrong direction. Here is today's 12z EURO:

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5c4217957b9c7


0 inches in NYC to 15 inches in Northern Orange County.

That's a 50 mile distance. Still needs to be watched, 50 miles isn't that much of a change in 36 hours.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:42 pm

Wow this is now looking like just another heavy rain storm I am out. Pretty sure this trend back nw is what's gonna happen being we have the right sampling. Congrats to the far north people. Not even going to get upset. Maybe next time.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:43 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:At what point do we start looking at what is actually happening upstream with the main pieces of energy, and how closely the models are getting those correct?

The 00z model runs last night had proper sampling of the PAC energy. Ever since better sampling we've seen our trends go in the wrong direction. Here is today's 12z EURO:

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 7 5c4217957b9c7


0 inches in NYC to 15 inches in Northern Orange County.

That's a 50 mile distance. Still needs to be watched, 50 miles isn't that much of a change in 36 hours.
nah pretty sure its over for us for anything frozen at all oh well.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:18 pm

Sorry to say, but it's looking like the 18z NAM may be a bit warmer, which is to say slight movement toward the other warmer models. For the first time it is showing plain rain just north of I-78 in NJ.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:20 pm

Still showing an extended freezing rain event across far northern NJ and into the Hudson Valley. Maybe an inch of freezing rain in those areas on this model.
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Post by hyde345 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:24 pm

@billg315 wrote:Sorry to say, but it's looking like the 18z NAM may be a bit warmer, which is to say slight movement toward the other warmer models. For the first time it is showing plain rain just north of I-78 in NJ.

Very small difference.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:24 pm

@billg315 wrote:Still showing an extended freezing rain event across far northern NJ and into the Hudson Valley. Maybe an inch of freezing rain in those areas on this model.

hopefully it gets warmer and we all get rain.

I'm done
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Post by frank 638 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:31 pm

I guess the cities not taking a chance I am seeing a lot of buses with tire chains on their buses and I'm saying to myself what's the point because it looks like this is going to be a rainstorm instead of a snowstorm I'm sick and tired of getting coating or 2 inches then rain this winter sucks

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Post by hyde345 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:34 pm

@frank 638 wrote:I guess the cities not taking a chance I am seeing a lot of buses with tire chains on their buses and I'm saying to myself what's the point because it looks like this is going to be a rainstorm instead of a snowstorm I'm sick and tired of getting coating or 2 inches then rain this winter sucks

After the November debacle the city is going to put chains on and have the plows out for flurries. The city will probably get a few inches from the front end.
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Post by Grselig on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:35 pm

Wow. I did not expect the warning as trends are getting warmer.

They increased my limits from 3 to 5 to 6-10. Very odd

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12PM EST SAT UNTIL 6PM EST SUN ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN NEW YORK. * WHEN...FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW, SLEET AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. CHECK LOCAL DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION INFORMATION SERVICES FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS.
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Post by Vinnydula on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:40 pm

Totals got upped in lower Westchester.? I'm confused


Last edited by Vinnydula on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:40 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Sorry to say, but it's looking like the 18z NAM may be a bit warmer, which is to say slight movement toward the other warmer models. For the first time it is showing plain rain just north of I-78 in NJ.

Very small difference.

Yeah definitely not a huge jump. But also, as I said above, if the NAM is off on temps by a few degrees that’s the difference between an extended snow/ice event vs a mostly rain event for a lot of people. And this was a tick in the wrong direction. If there was a lot of support for the NAM from other models I’d probably ignore a small change like this on one run. But since the NAM seems a bit of an outlier on this now, it has to be viewed with caution.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:44 pm

That WSW is interesting. The NAM - which is one of our colder solutions right now - doesn’t show anyone in that area getting more than 3-4”.
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