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January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:34 pm

GREAT AFD by UPTOn - MT Holly has the same view
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Home  [Northeast US] 1/20 Significant Snow & Ice Storm



.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A significant winter storm is still expected to impact the area this
weekend.

Changes to the headlines...a Winter Storm Warning is now in
effect for portions of northeastern NJ, the lower Hudson Valley
and for extreme western CT. A Winter Storm Watch remains in
effect for the remainder of the forecast area, with the
exception of coastal Suffolk County and the Twin Forks of Long
Island.

The eventual development and track of the surface low will depend
largely on the timing of phasing between a vorticity maximum
rotating around a broader Hudson Bay low pressure system, and a low
pressure trough that will gradually move into the Pacific
Northwest tonight. Ideally as the system moves onshore, a
better sampling of 00Z and 12Z RAOBs into tomorrow morning will
aid in the overall model consensus of its downstream
implications.

As of now, there unfortunately remains a fair amount of uncertainty
with regard to the eventual track of the surface low and expected
thermal profiles/precipitation types. The onset of precipitation has
trended slightly faster in recent model runs, so expect light snow
to overspread the region from west to east by late Saturday
afternoon into the evening. Confidence is high that the initial
precipitation type will be all snow, as temperatures largely remain
below freezing. For locations that are marginally above freezing, a
dry subcloud layer will aid in evaporative cooling that will allow
precipitation type to remain all snow.

Light snow will be short-lived, as the phasing of the troughs aloft
leads to strengthening low level winds and warm advection after
midnight. A corridor of intense frontogenesis is expected to rotate
through the region, quickly aiding in increasing precipitation
rates.
Confidence is highest that the interior - mainly where
the Winter Storm Warning is now in effect, will remain snow
longest. Elsewhere confidence is lower. The operational NAM and
3 km NAM remain the coldest, with cold air damming persisting
longest, but are outliers compared to other deterministic
forecasts. However, there is a tendency for cold air to remain
longer than forecast. [/b]
The GFS has continued in its past couple
runs to phase the upper systems faster, resulting in a continued
northward trend with the surface low placement. Should the GFS
verify, a quicker onset to rain will occur, with substantially
lower snow and ice amounts. The other available guidance is
largely in the middle of the two, including the 12Z Euro. The
current forecast remains a good compromise between all the
aforementioned scenarios, so little change was made, though it
should be noted that overall a slight trend towards warmer
solutions may be favored, with a transition to rain along
coastal locales occurring between around 2-6 am Saturday
night/Sunday morning.

Of significant concern, however, is the potential of at least a few
hours of sleet and/or freezing rain across the interior, given
the impressive low-level warm advection. If the colder solution
of the NAM verifies, the depth of the cold air beneath the warm
layer would favor more of a sleet profile. Being a high QPF
event, there is potential that accumulations may be significant.
The most likely corridor for this occurrence will be southern
portions of the lower Hudson Valley, northeastern NJ and parts
of western Connecticut. Additionally, should the colder (more
NAM-based) solution verify, then there`s potential that
sleet/ice accumulations may be as far south as the NYC Metro.
Further trends will need to be monitored closely. Per earlier
coordination with surrounding offices and WPC, a more
conservative approach was taken with the forecast with no major
changes made at this time.


Previous analogs of similar events lend confidence towards at least
a narrow region with sleet/ice potential, with the closest match
being February 2, 2015. Ice accumulations for that event were up to
a quarter of an inch, which is in line with our forecasts for this
event, and snow accumulations were primarily 6 to 14 inches, with
highest amounts across the interior.

Also similar to the 2015 event, deterministic models reflect a final
low level vorticity maximum moving through from west to east as the
system departs by early Sunday afternoon, which may be sufficient
for a quick few additional inches of snow as temperatures across
remaining areas quickly fall to below freezing once again. Cold
advection will then be strong into the evening, with the potential
that any standing water on untreated surfaces could quickly freeze,
creating hazardous travel conditions even where little wintry
precipitation occurs.


&&

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Empty Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:39 pm

I was surprised they had me in a Warning for 6-10" to be quite honest but looking at the 3K NAM and the frontegensis that it is showing over my area I can see why- we will puke snow for a hours like in November if that verifies.

I can see that map verifying - and stop looking at global for thermal profiles - they are not to be used in these LLC or CAD sigs here.

Great time stamp map by NWS on the timing of snow - if we last till 4PM even light with temps in the low 20's then watch the h out - 2015 is an interesting call on this
January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 DxNi6h7WoAE0PqG

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January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Empty Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by DAYBLAZER on Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:57 pm

amugs that's a fascinating map.

Interestingly, my local forecast isn't calling for the snow to start falling until 6pm. That map clearly shows snow moving into Sussex county by 2-3 pm.

The NW corner of the state also never appears to truly changeover to rain. There appears to be a brief period of mixed precip between 3am and 7am before changing back to all snow.

Perhaps this is what the NWS is sniffing up here which is maybe why they are sticking to the general 6-9 inch snowfall forecast for NW jersey.
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Post by WeatherBob on Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:13 pm

Is anyone familiar with the short range model(s), WRF-ARW. / WRF-ARW? This short range model is devasting for a lot of our area.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:18 pm

I do not have time for a write-up to explain my final call snow map. I will try to explain things later tonight if I can.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Final-Call

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January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Empty Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:32 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@HectorO wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:They must know something or see something I'm missing. Hope so.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Nws10

Looks like 9 for me. I'll let you guys know how my little snow blower does Laughing I'm always the one to freeze my @$$ off while everyone else is warm inside.

I just can't see this verifying though. It seems to go against every model run today. Weren't you in Mahwah for awhile?

I can
I'd certainly trust your word over theirs.

BTW I've been meaning to tell you. My wife and I were in Red Sox Suck about a month ago. We went on a pizza and history tour and were talking to another couple, maybe in their early forties. They tell me their from Wading River so of course I say I have a good friend in Wading River and he's a vet there. Well it turn out they didn't know you, as they don't have or own any animals, but friends of theirs do and they said they do nothing but sing your praises. I wasn't surprised.

Just glad they didn't ask what your last name was cause I have no clue.  I didn't want to go through the explanation of the whole weather forum thing. My wife would have hit me.




That’s awesome. Any ideas what their names are?  Wading River is a small place. Shoot me a PM. I’d love to know if I know them, esp if they have kids.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:34 pm

It's not uncommon for the warnings and advisories to be behind the models by 6-12 hours at this point. Look for the NSW to adjust their advisories and warnings throughout the evening towards the warmer/nw trends.

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I do not have time for a write-up to explain my final call snow map. I will try to explain things later tonight if I can.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Final-Call
No ice threat area, all snow?
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:46 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:Is anyone familiar with the short range model(s), WRF-ARW. /  WRF-ARW?  This short range model is devasting for a lot of our area.
WRF is the 3km NAM, not sure about those specific namings I am trying to see if weatherbell has them, where did you see them? And devastating how? Ice?
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:51 pm

If I am correct and it is the 3km NAM WRF (which thats what it shows as the label on wxbell here is the ice map, yes its really bad. I would like to see 00z, but it has been very consitant in this area, though most are calling for it further north.  Verbatim this would be crushing ranging from 0.25 to 1.6 inches of ice, my area sees in the .4 to .75 range which is really bad.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Hires_17


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:55 pm

I love this, I wish all models had this breakdown, those snow maps are misleading.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Hires_18

Also if you go hour by hour it shows you what is accumulating when and in what order. For instance my area is snow, sleet, frz (prolonged), rain.
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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:32 pm

0Z the data is fully ingested into the.models for downstream affects. As AL and Saroc have explained these set ups have happened before and a banana high with on piece in Quebec will drain the cold intone reguon. Will the warn air push happen yes BUT the dense cold air will hang tough and the ZR and Sleet will be a huge problem. Now how can we get 6" in NJ as Scott explained the front genesis will be incredible and it.will.puke snow in this region 2-3 hours. Thus 2"per hour would be 4-6 easily with such heavy rates.
Now casting will be in full force with this storm.
Have a great night everyone and here's to the NWS holding their forecast totals in line.

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January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Empty Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by HectorO on Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:37 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@HectorO wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:They must know something or see something I'm missing. Hope so.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Nws10

Looks like 9 for me. I'll let you guys know how my little snow blower does Laughing I'm always the one to freeze my @$$ off while everyone else is warm inside.

I just can't see this verifying though. It seems to go against every model run today. Weren't you in Mahwah for awhile?

I can
I'd certainly trust your word over theirs.

BTW I've been meaning to tell you. My wife and I were in Red Sox Suck about a month ago. We went on a pizza and history tour and were talking to another couple, maybe in their early forties. They tell me their from Wading River so of course I say I have a good friend in Wading River and he's a vet there. Well it turn out they didn't know you, as they don't have or own any animals, but friends of theirs do and they said they do nothing but sing your praises. I wasn't surprised.

Just glad they didn't ask what your last name was cause I have no clue.  I didn't want to go through the explanation of the whole weather forum thing. My wife would have hit me.




That’s awesome. Any ideas what their names are?  Wading River is a small place. Shoot me a PM. I’d love to know if I know them, esp if they have kids.

Yes, I was in Mahwah. I'm over in Bloomingdale now.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:25 pm

0z NAM ticked a little warmer a little further north again. Again, not a major shift but second run where the rain/frz line creeped a bit further north. Compare NNJ and NYC (and eastern PA) at 4 am Sunday on the 12z today:
January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Eab31d10

Now on 0z just out:
January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 B1c72210
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:26 pm

News latest briefing package brings the colder solution further south putting rain out of the picture for NYC north. Also has a wcs ice map of .25 to .5 plus. 1 in 10 they show but like am said its go be a big problem.

Anyone think I should continue to keep my driving trip to CT on Sunday morning? Lol jk pretty sure I know that answer.
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Post by Guest on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:27 pm

0z NAM freezing rain mapJanuary 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 Ice_ma10
:

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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:30 pm

0z NAM frz forecast looks frightening in NWNJ:
January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 C29ae310
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:31 pm

3km nam looks nothing like that aresian its almost all rain even a bit north of NYC. Movers the ice north and much less of it odd it doesn't match that at all. And 1 inch or 2 of snow for coast and u don't get into 6 inches till 50 plus miles inland.... I dunno what to believe.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:32 pm

@billg315 wrote:0z NAM frz forecast looks frightening in NWNJ:
January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 C29ae310
that's absolutely insane where is that map from? The regular man and 3km differ in precip by quite a bit is that a red flag?
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:36 pm

@billg315 wrote:0z NAM frz forecast looks frightening in NWNJ:
January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 9 C29ae310

if I am not mistaken with my geography I think that is right over Dayblazer and my sister lives up in that area as well..not a pretty picture
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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:37 pm

Looking at that ice map and the slight shift in the NAM I think the NAM might be moving toward the warm nose pushing further north but the cold air at the surface holding strong in certain areas north and west of the city. That could make this something we don’t see a lot of here: a major ice storm, more so than snowstorm (except for the Aresian who will still have a foot-plus of snow dumped on him).
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:38 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:3km nam looks nothing like that aresian its almost all rain even a bit north of NYC. Movers the ice north and much less of it odd it doesn't match that at all. And 1 inch or 2 of snow for coast and u don't get into 6 inches till 50 plus miles inland.... I dunno what to believe.
we down here I bet are going to have down pours of rain and wind. We have Gale warnings.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:39 pm

Weathermom, the shore areas are going to get poured on tomorrow night. Bet there are flooding issues in some flood prone areas.
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Post by Guest on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:44 pm

One way or the other, I'll do very well with this storm. At this stage I think just how well will have a lot more to do with ratios and thermal boundaries than actual precipitation amounts.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:52 pm

@billg315 wrote:Weathermom, the shore areas are going to get poured on tomorrow night. Bet there are flooding issues in some flood prone areas.
 Have not seen any yet as of tonight, but I am sure they are to come. and it is a full moon weekend, so that is not going to help matters! Where I am we don't have to worry about flooding, I am more worried about Monday morning when we have single digits and everything is frozen over. Anyway..hope you have a good night..not staying up tonight.


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