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January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

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January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Empty Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:30 pm

24.4 moderate snow, a little over an inch

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:33 pm

Surface is warm along the coast. Those who still have a cold surface the radar looks really good. You should get a very nice front-end thump.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Capture.thumb.PNG.9e1f1f902e8624aa25f5d3f6d992f2f1

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Pouring rain in Cranford
You are the most stable person on this board...I guess thats why you run it, your so calm about such  a crummy situation.  Not your fault if I did not already say it you all put a ton of effort into this and its great, without this board I would not really have anyone to discuss weather with.

A great point Jman, especially the part about if we didn't have this board who would we discuss weather with?

My parents, siblings, kids, friends, none of them have this ailment. They kind of accept the weather/snow neurosis I have, but still think it's weird.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:40 pm

Above the red line you are snow, below it rain.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Capture.thumb.PNG.38bc2e24e050e89ec017f3e1ada589a0

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Post by frank 638 Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:42 pm

Lights no temperatures are dropping from 35 to 33 degrees of course that's not going to last

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Post by hyde345 Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:48 pm

21* with moderate snow, about 1.5 inches so far.
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Post by oldtimer Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:50 pm

Very light mix 35*

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:53 pm

Current RADAR

The Rain Snow Line

Green for rain....................

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 1-19-110
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:53 pm

ESE winds near the coast...hence the rain. -EPO failed us. It was supposed to keep an HP in place to our north to keep winds northerly.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Capture.thumb.PNG.2b3980a000c90e8bd106e0025828465e

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:59 pm

Light to moderate snow past two hours here. Enjoying it while it lasts. Closing in on an inch.
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Post by Zhukov1945 Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:ESE winds near the coast...hence the rain. -EPO failed us. It was supposed to keep an HP in place to our north to keep winds northerly.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Capture.thumb.PNG.2b3980a000c90e8bd106e0025828465e

Of all the models my loose recollection is the NAM/UK clearly failed (I mean too strong but roll with it) by being too far south/east and the GFS was overpowered and too far west (no way my temps in North Hunterdon are going to get anywhere near what GFS had been showing). Was this another Euro "win" in the sense of it being the least out of line with reality for the longest? Of course all models make adjustments over the long term but I feel like Euro was overall most consistently nearest to what actually ended up occurring...
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Post by 1190ftalt Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:00 pm

Well it’s been snowing very lightly at 1190 feet altitude in Stillwater Nj for about 2 hours and we now have 48/64 of a inch of fresh powder ! The temperature is holding at 28 degrees Fahrenheit, any snow is good ! If you think about it weather (sea what I did there )  you have 4 inches of snow or 18 inches of snow you really only see the top 1/2 inch so anything over a half inch is bonus and all good ! Frank in Cranford and the other fellas doing there best to “read the signs” and try to make a weather prediction based on all the variables , well thanks you guys are great ! Never play it safe or be a fence sitter, be bold, stand behind your predictions and LEAD THE WAY ! That’s why we tune in !
On another note maybe someone should go check on MR TISSUES, AKA the KLEENEX MAN  (SYSNOW), talk him back from the ledge and bring him a bottle of Knob Hill Bourbon!
           Good Luck !
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:01 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:ESE winds near the coast...hence the rain. -EPO failed us. It was supposed to keep an HP in place to our north to keep winds northerly.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Capture.thumb.PNG.2b3980a000c90e8bd106e0025828465e

Of all the models my loose recollection is the NAM/UK clearly failed (I mean too strong but roll with it) by being too far south/east and the GFS was overpowered and too far west (no way my temps in North Hunterdon are going to get anywhere near what GFS had been showing).  Was this another Euro "win" in the sense of it being the least out of line with reality for the longest?  Of course all models make adjustments over the long term but I feel like Euro was overall most consistently nearest to what actually ended up occurring...

To be honest I do not have a weather models subscription. Without access to the EURO its hard for me to answer. But the EURO was showing a cold solution just 2 days ago, while the GFS has been consistently warm.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:02 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:ESE winds near the coast...hence the rain. -EPO failed us. It was supposed to keep an HP in place to our north to keep winds northerly.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 Capture.thumb.PNG.2b3980a000c90e8bd106e0025828465e

Of all the models my loose recollection is the NAM/UK clearly failed (I mean too strong but roll with it) by being too far south/east and the GFS was overpowered and too far west (no way my temps in North Hunterdon are going to get anywhere near what GFS had been showing).  Was this another Euro "win" in the sense of it being the least out of line with reality for the longest?  Of course all models make adjustments over the long term but I feel like Euro was overall most consistently nearest to what actually ended up occurring...

Agree 100%

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:17 pm

Battleground right now. Changed over to rain. Now heavier precip changed for the moment to sleet/snow mix.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:20 pm

I just looked outside to check the snow and the sky looks pre-dawn rather than late night.

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Post by Zhukov1945 Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:20 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Battleground right now. Changed over to rain. Now heavier precip changed for the moment to sleet/snow mix.

Still snowing 8 miles up the road from you so assume our changeover coming soon...
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:21 pm

Wow how is it snowing and 36 out? And its even sticking in some places.
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Post by Zhukov1945 Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow how is it snowing and 36 out? And its even sticking in some places.

The rapidity of the snow sticking and coating despite being 35 degrees most of the day surprised me to (even though we are at 33 now)
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:30 pm

I’m not at home but based on reliable information (and Frank’s report which isn’t far up the road) it is 35* with a steady rain. I’m not sure we even started as snow there.
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Post by Fededle22 Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:38 pm

Light to moderate snow in West Orange since about 6:30pm. Took a while to start sticking but it is now sticking to all surfaces.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:39 pm

1.5” and starting to flip. Probably it for me. The warm tongue is no joke and expanding rapidly. I think even Binghamton will taint later tonight.

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Post by Joe Snow Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:45 pm

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 14 1-19-111

Finally getting into some white Gold

JMan, looks like you are in the Heavy Snow warning that was issued.
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Post by oldtimer Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:48 pm

Light snow and sticking Dusting 35*

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Post by DAYBLAZER Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:49 pm

Very heavy snow in Hopatcong, about 2 inches on the ground as of now.
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Post by Dtone Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:20 pm

Managed a dusting on grassy surfaces..patchy though. More sleet now. Temp down to 33*

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Post by Guest Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:22 pm

This snow is going to have to explode from the sky if there's going to be a foot on the ground before the storm moves through. The NWS is saying there's going to be a period of 1-2"/hr and possibly as much as 3"/hr at some point, but I don't know if I'll be awake when or if it arrives.

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