January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
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53 posters
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
24.4 moderate snow, a little over an inch
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Surface is warm along the coast. Those who still have a cold surface the radar looks really good. You should get a very nice front-end thump.
Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
jmanley32 wrote:You are the most stable person on this board...I guess thats why you run it, your so calm about such a crummy situation. Not your fault if I did not already say it you all put a ton of effort into this and its great, without this board I would not really have anyone to discuss weather with.Frank_Wx wrote:Pouring rain in Cranford
A great point Jman, especially the part about if we didn't have this board who would we discuss weather with?
My parents, siblings, kids, friends, none of them have this ailment. They kind of accept the weather/snow neurosis I have, but still think it's weird.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Above the red line you are snow, below it rain.
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Lights no temperatures are dropping from 35 to 33 degrees of course that's not going to last
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
21* with moderate snow, about 1.5 inches so far.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Very light mix 35*
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
ESE winds near the coast...hence the rain. -EPO failed us. It was supposed to keep an HP in place to our north to keep winds northerly.
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Light to moderate snow past two hours here. Enjoying it while it lasts. Closing in on an inch.
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Frank_Wx wrote:ESE winds near the coast...hence the rain. -EPO failed us. It was supposed to keep an HP in place to our north to keep winds northerly.
Of all the models my loose recollection is the NAM/UK clearly failed (I mean too strong but roll with it) by being too far south/east and the GFS was overpowered and too far west (no way my temps in North Hunterdon are going to get anywhere near what GFS had been showing). Was this another Euro "win" in the sense of it being the least out of line with reality for the longest? Of course all models make adjustments over the long term but I feel like Euro was overall most consistently nearest to what actually ended up occurring...
Zhukov1945- Posts : 138
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Well it’s been snowing very lightly at 1190 feet altitude in Stillwater Nj for about 2 hours and we now have 48/64 of a inch of fresh powder ! The temperature is holding at 28 degrees Fahrenheit, any snow is good ! If you think about it weather (sea what I did there ) you have 4 inches of snow or 18 inches of snow you really only see the top 1/2 inch so anything over a half inch is bonus and all good ! Frank in Cranford and the other fellas doing there best to “read the signs” and try to make a weather prediction based on all the variables , well thanks you guys are great ! Never play it safe or be a fence sitter, be bold, stand behind your predictions and LEAD THE WAY ! That’s why we tune in !
On another note maybe someone should go check on MR TISSUES, AKA the KLEENEX MAN (SYSNOW), talk him back from the ledge and bring him a bottle of Knob Hill Bourbon!
Good Luck !
On another note maybe someone should go check on MR TISSUES, AKA the KLEENEX MAN (SYSNOW), talk him back from the ledge and bring him a bottle of Knob Hill Bourbon!
Good Luck !
1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Zhukov1945 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:ESE winds near the coast...hence the rain. -EPO failed us. It was supposed to keep an HP in place to our north to keep winds northerly.
Of all the models my loose recollection is the NAM/UK clearly failed (I mean too strong but roll with it) by being too far south/east and the GFS was overpowered and too far west (no way my temps in North Hunterdon are going to get anywhere near what GFS had been showing). Was this another Euro "win" in the sense of it being the least out of line with reality for the longest? Of course all models make adjustments over the long term but I feel like Euro was overall most consistently nearest to what actually ended up occurring...
To be honest I do not have a weather models subscription. Without access to the EURO its hard for me to answer. But the EURO was showing a cold solution just 2 days ago, while the GFS has been consistently warm.
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Zhukov1945 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:ESE winds near the coast...hence the rain. -EPO failed us. It was supposed to keep an HP in place to our north to keep winds northerly.
Of all the models my loose recollection is the NAM/UK clearly failed (I mean too strong but roll with it) by being too far south/east and the GFS was overpowered and too far west (no way my temps in North Hunterdon are going to get anywhere near what GFS had been showing). Was this another Euro "win" in the sense of it being the least out of line with reality for the longest? Of course all models make adjustments over the long term but I feel like Euro was overall most consistently nearest to what actually ended up occurring...
Agree 100%
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Battleground right now. Changed over to rain. Now heavier precip changed for the moment to sleet/snow mix.
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
I just looked outside to check the snow and the sky looks pre-dawn rather than late night.
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Battleground right now. Changed over to rain. Now heavier precip changed for the moment to sleet/snow mix.
Still snowing 8 miles up the road from you so assume our changeover coming soon...
Zhukov1945- Posts : 138
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Wow how is it snowing and 36 out? And its even sticking in some places.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
jmanley32 wrote:Wow how is it snowing and 36 out? And its even sticking in some places.
The rapidity of the snow sticking and coating despite being 35 degrees most of the day surprised me to (even though we are at 33 now)
Zhukov1945- Posts : 138
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
I’m not at home but based on reliable information (and Frank’s report which isn’t far up the road) it is 35* with a steady rain. I’m not sure we even started as snow there.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Light to moderate snow in West Orange since about 6:30pm. Took a while to start sticking but it is now sticking to all surfaces.
Fededle22- Posts : 169
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
1.5” and starting to flip. Probably it for me. The warm tongue is no joke and expanding rapidly. I think even Binghamton will taint later tonight.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Light snow and sticking Dusting 35*
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Very heavy snow in Hopatcong, about 2 inches on the ground as of now.
DAYBLAZER- Posts : 228
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
Managed a dusting on grassy surfaces..patchy though. More sleet now. Temp down to 33*
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map
This snow is going to have to explode from the sky if there's going to be a foot on the ground before the storm moves through. The NWS is saying there's going to be a period of 1-2"/hr and possibly as much as 3"/hr at some point, but I don't know if I'll be awake when or if it arrives.
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