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Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:15 am

29* steady light snow. Just a dusting so far. Dew point is 15*.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:17 am

billg315 wrote:29* steady light snow. Just a dusting so far. Dew point is 15*.

With the dewpoint that low it will be interesting to see how low the surface temp drops when the precip picks up.

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:24 am

Another waste in this terrible winter, no snow here, just been pure sleet. Onto the next one...
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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:28 am

jmanley32 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Dew point much lower than forecast in the NYC metro. Currently 27.8/9 on Long Island. That will slow the warming process at the surface. May mean prolonged ice or ZR
Does this have the potential to be a bad ice storm or thinking mainly sleet? 8 hrs of freezing rain would be horrible.

More sleet
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:28 am

There must be another layer warmer than 0C because this should represent ALL snow.  I call bull on this.

Lastest 925 and 850 temperatures:

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 2-12-210
Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 2-12-211

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Post by DAYBLAZER Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:31 am

Morning all. Currently 24 degrees with light to moderate snow here in Hopatcong
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:31 am

heehaw453 wrote:There must be another layer warmer than 0C because this should represent ALL snow.  I call bull on this.

Lastest 925 and 850 temperatures:

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 2-12-210
Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 2-12-211

Looks like the NAM may have nailed this one.

Stupid model, when you want it to be right it isn't, and when you want it to be wrong it is. It could be a country song.
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Post by brownie Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:38 am

Very fine snow just started here within the last 5 minutes.  Starting to lightly coat my deck and driveway immediately.

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Post by Taffy Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:39 am

32 feels like 21. Winds still at 16mph ESE. Dew point now up to 17 from 13 about an hour ago. Light snow the last 15 minutes and starting to pick up.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:41 am

Radar says it's snowing but it's sleeting. Great.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:43 am

Back to moderate snow now. It's just going to be one of those storms back and forth kind of deals. These won't accumulate much, but at least it's wintry...

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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:44 am

heehaw453 wrote:There must be another layer warmer than 0C because this should represent ALL snow.  I call bull on this.

Lastest 925 and 850 temperatures:

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 2-12-210
Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 2-12-211
The warm nose is way up there between 700. An 800 millibars that's usually asleet signal when the 925 go above freezing that's a freezing rain sign
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:44 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:There must be another layer warmer than 0C because this should represent ALL snow.  I call bull on this.

Lastest 925 and 850 temperatures:

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 2-12-210
Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 2-12-211

Looks like the NAM may have nailed this one.

Stupid model, when you want it to be right it isn't, and when you want it to be wrong it is. It could be a country song.

Agreed. NAM does have its moments. And like the jingle!

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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:45 am

heehaw453 wrote:Back to moderate snow now.  It's just going to be one of those storms back and forth kind of deals.  These won't accumulate much, but at least it's wintry...
Most likely when precipitation is coming down moderate to heavy at least at the early stages of the storm it will transition back to snow as precipitation rates can overcome slightly warmer upper levels
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:47 am

Snow has commenced here in the north Bronx / Mount Vernon that's about an hour ahead of schedule according to the n a m and latest hrrr
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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:51 am

8:50; it has started. Surprisingly, it is not itsy bitsy stuff.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:06 am

LOL, snow to the left of me, above me, below me, to the right.....but not here.

LMAO, as soon as I send this I see a flake.Gotta use this again for the next storm.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:07 am

Lots of warm air already infiltrating the coast. Most likely mixing already here.

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 Screenshot_20190212-085351_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.51c0e9abdc82ea81e1ce11dc9bb439ae

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:09 am

Holding at 29*. Snow has picked up from light to moderate. Ground is coated. Street in front of my house (which is treated and somewhat well traveled) is finally getting accumulation in spots.
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Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:12 am

Snow just started in Manhattan streets are wet due to the salt

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Post by Smitty623 Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:14 am

Mix to rain. Mainly Rain. Changed over around 9:00 35*

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:15 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Lots of warm air already infiltrating the coast. Most likely mixing already here.

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 Screenshot_20190212-085351_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.51c0e9abdc82ea81e1ce11dc9bb439ae

Frank it's mixing all the way to Allentown, PA

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:16 am

Just to show a change in intensity in the past half-hour, my street is treated and has a fair amount of traffic. 20 minutes ago it was wet blacktop. Now it is getting a nice coating.
Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 98834010
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:16 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:There must be another layer warmer than 0C because this should represent ALL snow.  I call bull on this.

Lastest 925 and 850 temperatures:

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 2-12-210
Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 10 2-12-211

Looks like the NAM may have nailed this one.

Stupid model, when you want it to be right it isn't, and when you want it to be wrong it is. It could be a country song.

I kind of brought this up last night but the models yesterday developed along similar lines from the November 15th storm (EURO/HRRR linger duration of snow in NYC while 12-km/3-km NAM had a quick changeover. The EURO/HRRR combo won out in that one. That being said, those models developed along very similar lines 3/14/17, only the NAM won out there.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:21 am

I will say this though, while I may have several hours of sleet and frz rain still to go, snow totals here will bust way low. If it changes over by 11 (as modeled) I can’t see getting more than an inch - maybe two if the last hour is heavy.
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Post by jimv45 Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:30 am

20 here and snow picking up! Looks to stay frozen here through storm.

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:34 am

Snow has commenved here in NENJ finally!! 
Light dusting already on roads.went rom flurries to this quickly.
Missed 4 hours of snow dur to Virga, I'll take what I get and my day off from school and enjoy it. 
Funny NWS write up had me as 2-5" for snow and sleet but their maps had 4-6".

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