Re: Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:32 pm

And NWS has 4-6 for us Al, why so negative about this? Been pretty consistent about these amounts past few days.

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:34 pm

amugs wrote:WAA always start earlier than models forecast - this is a given peeps, not staying it will start at 10 pm but I am thinking around 1-2AM at this time - we'll know more tomorrow.

Look at this CAD Signature from the 1040 HP on the 18 Z NAM

Look at this push - even by 20 mile ticks

SLEET galore for NNJ into LHV North of I80 by this map - it is going to pour sleep by this map

850's warm right

BL temps not so peeps - ice ice baby

Watches going up and advisories as well - Upton slow to the post as usual

NWS holding steady on their snowfall amounts

NWS upton doesnt even have a Hazerdous weather outlook for southern westchester city or costal CT, which makes no sense in comparison to their snow map.

by **billg315** Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:36 pm

I have to think you get a few inches and a lot of sleet there JMan because that is what the models are hinting at and the NWS is projecting that now inside of 36 hours until start time. I think the further south and east you go the better chance of this busting. As for schools, I’ve seen them close for an inch of snow this winter. They absolutely should close for this mess Tuesday.

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:41 pm

billg315 wrote:I have to think you get a few inches and a lot of sleet there JMan because that is what the models are hinting at and the NWS is projecting that now inside of 36 hours until start time. I think the further south and east you go the better chance of this busting. As for schools, I’ve seen them close for an inch of snow this winter. They absolutely should close for this mess Tuesday.

So you think NWS of 4-6 is way too much? If it happens right in the morning and lasts till midday at least some type of hazerdous weather my school will, its not board of Ed., they have a seperate bussing company Astra, that doesnt seem to take any chances especially since these kids are 18 mos to 3 years old and special needs.

by **jmanley32** Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:46 pm

18z nam snow map is impressive shows godzilla totals north and mothreazilla for most but much of it is likely sleet, looking at simulated radar wow with the ice duration.

by **SENJsnowman** Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:47 pm

All the short range models are getting a bit more bullish on tonight for Ocean County, upping outputs from 1" to 2". Larry, you may see a few inches just tonight and into tomorrow.

And we also might see a few Ocean County school districts with surprise delayed openings tomorrow.

by **billg315** Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:47 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:I have to think you get a few inches and a lot of sleet there JMan because that is what the models are hinting at and the NWS is projecting that now inside of 36 hours until start time. I think the further south and east you go the better chance of this busting. As for schools, I’ve seen them close for an inch of snow this winter. They absolutely should close for this mess Tuesday.
So you think NWS of 4-6 is way too much? If it happens right in the morning and lasts till midday at least some type of hazerdous weather my school will, its not board of Ed., they have a seperate bussing company Astra, that doesnt seem to take any chances especially since these kids are 18 mos to 3 years old and special needs.

No I think 4-6 is possible where you are but everything in terms of start time and changeover time has to break right. Otherwise you might only be 2-4 then sleet. I think many schools will play it safe and close Tuesday (unless the forecast changes by tomorrow night - which is possible).

by **billg315** Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:52 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:All the short range models are getting a bit more bullish on tonight for Ocean County, upping outputs from 1" to 2". Larry, you may see a few inches just tonight and into tomorrow.

And we also might see a few Ocean County school districts with surprise delayed openings tomorrow.

Yes. SJ should not overlook tonight’s quick hitter. You may wake up to a nice scene tomorrow. Heck you might wake up to a nice scene Tuesday too - it’s just you’ll be the first to go over to rain.

by DAYBLAZER Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:03 pm

I must admit this one caught me by surprise. As others have stated, I think the initial projections of this being another "snow for a bit, followed quickly by rain" storm has caused people to not take this storm as seriously as it might need to be taken.

Up here in Sussex county, NJ, our current forecast is for 5-8 inches of snow and up to 1/4 inch of ice. Verbatim, that would be BY FAR the most impactful storm this area of the state has seen since November.

I also noted that even though the forecast calls for a mixed bag in terms of precip on Tuesday afternoon, our High temp never exceeds 27 degrees. That's a big red flag in terms of potential ice.

This one certainly bears watching. As others have stated, I think a key to a solid "snow day" is going to be when this precip starts. Hoping for an earlier start around here. Time will tell.

by **rb924119** Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:03 pm

Really frustrated that I can’t be more involved with this system, because there is so much that I would love to share with you in terms of reasoning behind my thoughts, but I just have no chance :/ so I apologize for that. However; my thinking remains unchanged on this system: A general 1-3”/2-4” snowfall board-wide brought during an ~2-4 hour period of snow at the onset followed by the dreaded transition. I’ve never been excited for this storm, and Scott (sroc) brought up one of the key points as to why in his brief, but well-designed discussion earlier today. The lack of a true -EPO to help really resist the warm advection aloft. People, largely on another forum where I have been recently alienated (and am therefore not posting this there for those who are also members there), are claiming how similar this is to the November “surprise” snow event, and that anybody who believes that this will not be a bigger event are undoubtedly wrong. Quite honestly, this event is nearly entirely DIS-similar, in my opinion. The November event featured an overwhelming resistance to the warm advection when both tropical forcings (MJO, Niño, and SOI) and hemispheric alignments are considered. This event features ABSOLUTELY NO resistance to the warmth when analyzing those same factors, and given other influences such as surrounding SST anomalies/associated feedbacks and diabatic effects. I see a much stronger resemblance to the largely failed January event (though even THAT had nearly enough resistance to overpower the warm advection, and would have, if it wasn’t for that meddling decayed -EPO in the short-range, note the Scooby Doo deference :p). Anyway, I’m holding firm here, and unfortunately believe this will disappoint those who are hyping these bigger snowfall accumulations. Just my opinion, though, so take that for what it’s worth. Also as a side note, I haven’t been able to deeply analyze this event, so if I’m wrong.........that’s my excuse hahaha again, I’m sorry that I can’t contribute more to your discussion :/ Happy tracking!!

by **rb924119** Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:16 pm

I also want to express my large degree of happiness and excitement to see some of our newcomers leading the charge with the discussion of this system. Billig, NJSnowman, heehaw, and Blazer, as well as anybody else I missed in my skimming, absolutely GREAT WORK today and in days prior taking the reigns and leading some really teriffic discussion in here in the stead of some of the regulars/admin. SO awesome to see, and I look forward to all of your future contributions, and those of you who have yet to really get your feet wet Wink

by **rb924119** Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:17 pm

And obviously, I’m NOT ignoring our regulars who have also been contributing (mugsy, Algae, scott, Jman, etc.). Just figured it goes without saying Smile

by **billg315** Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:I also want to express my large degree of happiness and excitement to see some of our newcomers leading the charge with the discussion of this system. Billig, NJSnowman, heehaw, and Blazer, as well as anybody else I missed in my skimming, absolutely GREAT WORK today and in days prior taking the reigns and leading some really teriffic discussion in here in the stead of some of the regulars/admin. SO awesome to see, and I look forward to all of your future contributions, and those of you who have yet to really get your feet wet

Thanks rb! And I totally get your hesitance on this system. I am inherently skeptical of all “transition” events. Lol. I’ve been burned too often by these to ever go all-in. I’m in full nowcasting mode for this. But I’m hoping some of these colder solutions with more bullish snow totals pull through for us - because this winter I really need it. Haha.

by **aiannone** Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:38 pm

Reminds me of the November storm. We saw what happens when the cold air holds on just a little more than expected

by **billg315** Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:29 pm

0z NAM is in line with a later start time (7-8 am) for NYC proper. Very brief period of snow then sleet from mid morning through about 4 pm before rain line finally starts to creep north. This would greatly limit snow totals but during that time there is about about .75” liquid equivalent of mostly sleet.
GFS and NAM are just way apart on start time (about 8 hours) unless GFS trends that way in its next run. That’s a huge difference for any snow totals. That said, if you trust the NAM more, it’s quite a sleet storm.

by **SENJsnowman** Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:55 pm

32* and snowing steady in Bayville. Coating already everywhere. The precip came in earlier and it looks like it's going to get moderately strong and steady throughout the night. Short range models, radar and even my beloved TWC app like 2-3 inches tonight from Toms River on south.

You heard it here first...several school districts in southern NJ will be CLOSED tomorrow as the southern tier of the state wakes up to a total surprise 2-3" and in some spots 4-6" of snow everywhere.

Now, once again the big question is, as this storm slides to our south, how far north and how intense will the precip shield get.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:01 am

Mt Holly's radar shows a MUCH stronger precip shield than previously modeled for tonight. Nobody told their mets though...They say >1 snow for tonight. lol

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 4 15ogcxh

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 4 15ogcxh

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:07 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Mt Holly's radar shows a MUCH stronger precip shield than previously modeled for tonight. Nobody told their mets though...They say >1 snow for tonight. lol

Very nice!!

Hope it over performs big time. There's nothing like waking up to a surprise blanket of white.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:17 am

CP, I might not be sleeping tonight...

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 4 Xf48ly

For the past 30 min that green band has been regenerating over the Wilmington De/Chester Pa border looks like...and it's cruising down Route 70 straight to the OC!

If that persists... Shocked

by Smitty623 Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:05 am

SENJ

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by **SENJsnowman** Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:29 am

I wasn't gonna say anything, Smitty, I thought you might be sleeping! ha ha. If I'm right, this is gonna blow that last storm away. 3" easy. Larry, down in barnegat you guys must be off the chain!

by Smitty623 Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:38 am

I was going to go to sleep until I looked out my window haha. It’s nice seeing Snow, and especially with the chance of a big time over performance. From this hitter.

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by larryrock72 Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:44 am

Snowing at a good clip here in Barnegat everything covered. Dogs seemed to be surprised too when I let them out! I'll be up again in 4hrs to see what this storm will produce

by larryrock72 Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:51 am

Current temp 28. Cold enough. SENJ, I just saw 29 in bayville. Good band over Ocean county

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:57 am

I think now really the only thing that matters is how long does the snow stick around for. If it persists until 8-9 in the morning, we could hit even 4-5 inches. Figures to be at least a steady, moderate hitter all the way thru. Temps aren't supposed to be an issue for tonight Larry, that's for round 2 on Monday-Tuesday!

Heaviest snow of the night coming through now...

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 4 34zcd5k

Feb. 11-12 2019 Wintry Mix Event - Page 4 34zcd5k

by Smitty623 Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:05 am

I wish I’m able to understand every little thing all of you guys, pros do. I mean im 18 i do my best to watch, listen, learn! Definitely love snow, and for what i can see it looks good from here until perhaps 9:00 as you said SENJ

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by larryrock72 Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:09 am

4-5" works for me. Heaviest band over us right now should drop 2" alone. We'll see if kids get a closing, a delay is a def.

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