Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Peeps,
Friday night through Saturday late morning storm has gotten legs and is a sneaky coastal. Euro and Gfs get this are on the same page some what! Imagine that.
Euro

LET'S DO THIS!!!!

Even though I'm ready for spring bring on winter!

Love the look of each EPS mean is better than Barney and the probability of a warning level storm is better than we've had. 
Watch our Boy who cried wolf NJ Governor call for a SOE!!

12K NAM is a friggin mauling for Saturday storm. In a good way.

Looks like close to 6” for nyc anD northern nj. Probably not done trending this too.

@amugs wrote:

Love the look of each EPS mean is better than Barney and the probability of a warning level storm is better than we've had. 
Watch our Boy who cried wolf NJ Governor call for a SOE!!

this also includes monday what does model show just through sat?

3km nam shows a few hrs of light snow for sat maybe at most 2-4 including tonight so more like 1-2/3, trust in SR models at this point IMO

Mugs, I am Dr. Yes

3K name is at its extended range for Sat. We are not look g at 1-3 for Saturday Jman.
It's has the e armark of a warning level criteria storm. I have not started a thread for a storm since last year March, ride my coat tails to what could be our best storm of this putrid winter.
12 K 0zNAM just plowed us under in its run

HOLY GFS!

Wow GFS gives all of CT 10-14 literally 25 miles away sees double my snowfall + (GFS shows 5 inches here). Anyway we can get this to intensify sooner and give us a big storm or is it too little too late once it starts going? Beantown and cape get a high end godzilla damnit. Even you soul, you see about 7-10 versus my 5 and we are nearly neighbors, thats crazy.

Models are 3 days out from Sunday night. They couldn’t be more different how to handle the solution. Even Saturdays event’s solution is quite different among the models. Like many have said just have to take one event at a time.

I have to stop working late.

7 inches Saturday IMBY? I never saw this coming, provided of course it actually happens. Which this winter I have my doubts, even this close to the event.

@amugs wrote:

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I have to stop working late.

7 inches Saturday IMBY? I never saw this coming, provided of course it actually happens. Which this winter I have my doubts, even this close to the event.

@amugs wrote:

I am skeptical of these next two storms, this pattern has destroyed the winter since November 15, 3 1/2 solid months, but it sure is due to change.Hopefully, these next two storms do that.It's March 1st, and as Sinatra would say...."and so, the end is near, my friends we've reached, the final curtain"!

NAM has good snow for EPA on this one. I can understand how it’s possible but skeptical for now.

Here is a first call snow map for this one.  After looking at things Im worried about a warm nose between 750mb and 850mb level that could cut down on totals. Area Im most worried about is S&E of the yellow line.  Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  

@sroc4 wrote:Here is a first call snow map for this one.  After looking at things Im worried about a warm nose between 750mb and 850mb level that could cut down on totals.  Area Im most worried about is S&E of the yellow line.  Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  

Scott if I'm not mistaken this is your first snowfall map this entire winter season except maybe for the November storm what a horrible winter it was hopefully we can make up for it in the next week to 10 days

Al unfort you are 100% correct. And Im pretty sure I did not make a snow map back in Nov. But its been so long ago and Im getting older now so the memory is fuzzy. lol

@sroc4 wrote:Here is a first call snow map for this one.  After looking at things Im worried about a warm nose between 750mb and 850mb level that could cut down on totals.  Area Im most worried about is S&E of the yellow line.  Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  

Very nice map, Scott. Aside from a slight northward adjustment that I would apply, that’s nearly identical to what I think as well (maybe 1-3 instead of 2-4, but that’s really splitting hairs lol).

@sroc4 wrote:Here is a first call snow map for this one.  After looking at things Im worried about a warm nose between 750mb and 850mb level that could cut down on totals.  Area Im most worried about is S&E of the yellow line.  Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  

I think a good call for now.

The soundings for EPA are very close to freezing at 750 - 850 during the first couple of hours of the precip and get progressively warmer towards the coast. If this thing can wind up a little bit off the coast these numbers are very achievable and honestly your backyard in Suffolk County could really do well with this. Moreover, there is a high in Quebec which helps with cold air supply.

Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

@sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol