Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

12K NAM is a friggin mauling for Saturday storm. In a good way.

Looks like close to 6” for nyc anD northern nj. Probably not done trending this too.

Mugs, I am Dr. Yes

Models are 3 days out from Sunday night. They couldn’t be more different how to handle the solution. Even Saturdays event’s solution is quite different among the models. Like many have said just have to take one event at a time.

NAM has good snow for EPA on this one. I can understand how it’s possible but skeptical for now.

@sroc4 wrote:Here is a first call snow map for this one.  After looking at things Im worried about a warm nose between 750mb and 850mb level that could cut down on totals.  Area Im most worried about is S&E of the yellow line.  Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  

Very nice map, Scott. Aside from a slight northward adjustment that I would apply, that’s nearly identical to what I think as well (maybe 1-3 instead of 2-4, but that’s really splitting hairs lol).

@sroc4 wrote:Here is a first call snow map for this one.  After looking at things Im worried about a warm nose between 750mb and 850mb level that could cut down on totals.  Area Im most worried about is S&E of the yellow line.  Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  

I think a good call for now.

The soundings for EPA are very close to freezing at 750 - 850 during the first couple of hours of the precip and get progressively warmer towards the coast. If this thing can wind up a little bit off the coast these numbers are very achievable and honestly your backyard in Suffolk County could really do well with this. Moreover, there is a high in Quebec which helps with cold air supply.

@sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol