Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
Yeah I’m having a hard time seeing Ocean County do over 4” due to a lot of rain and the possibility of a sleet fest in the areas that do change over. Maybe far NW Ocean County could crack into the higher numbers.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
Sounds like some bad reviews are in order shortlyFededle22 wrote:My wife is supposed to go to Hoboken for a cooking class from 7-9pm with friends and she doesn't want to go due to the storm. The owner does not give refunds and says they are supposed to get 1-2 inches of rain so why would he cancel. What forecast is he listening to?
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
[/quote] At the same time, I think Mt Holly is on crack in the other direction.
In what is the most out of character move I have seen anywhere in a while, NWS has put Ocean County to a warning and upped their call to 4-7" for 'portions of southern NJ"?!?!
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...HEAVY WET SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE. * WHEN...RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ALL SNOW OCCURS INTO THIS EVENING.
Whatever, I'll be here a-tracking either way, but I think the coast is toast, not the host to boast the most roast...[/quote]
Sounds like they are concerned with Western Southern and central Jersey by including SE PA, more inland away from the coast. Sounds like there can be a sharp cutoff from the shore and inland, maybe between the turnpike and parkway...
In what is the most out of character move I have seen anywhere in a while, NWS has put Ocean County to a warning and upped their call to 4-7" for 'portions of southern NJ"?!?!
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...HEAVY WET SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE. * WHEN...RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ALL SNOW OCCURS INTO THIS EVENING.
Whatever, I'll be here a-tracking either way, but I think the coast is toast, not the host to boast the most roast...[/quote]
Sounds like they are concerned with Western Southern and central Jersey by including SE PA, more inland away from the coast. Sounds like there can be a sharp cutoff from the shore and inland, maybe between the turnpike and parkway...
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
I expect areas just north/west of the r/s line to have intense snowfall this evening and I wonder: could there even be thundersnow?
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
Zoo your explanation makes the most sense to me as to the term 'Southern New Jersey', but still confused as to the decision to up Ocean County to a warning? Because the county line contours sharply towards the coast, there is no SW to the county. It must be the far NW corner (out by Six Flags) of the County has a shot for warning level snowfall.
In the mean time, this could be a relatively humbling evening for yours truly lol:
In the mean time, this could be a relatively humbling evening for yours truly lol:
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
had a little drizzle/flurry. 38/26, so i expect some evaporational cooling at the surface. 850's -7 and 925's -3.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
SENJsnowman wrote:Zoo your explanation makes the most sense to me as to the term 'Southern New Jersey', but still confused as to the decision to up Ocean County to a warning? Because the county line contours sharply towards the coast, there is no SW to the county. It must be the far NW corner (out by Six Flags) of the County has a shot for warning level snowfall.
In the mean time, this could be a relatively humbling evening for yours truly lol:
That's why I figured between the Parkway and the Turnpike, but still holding out hope for something for y'all!
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
First flakes have begun falling here in Hopatcong NJ at about 3:35 pm.
DAYBLAZER- Posts : 228
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
light snow 35/30. The bottom part of the air column cools quickly once you start getting consistent precip. Unfortunately it will take time to get surface below freezing. I think that'll be across the board here, but not having to battle the sun will help a lot i think.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
41 degrees here in southern ocean county no precipitation yet. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say rain, rain rain All night. Hopefully the majority of this board gets a good shot of snow. Go get em!!!!!
larryrock72- Posts : 140
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
Very light fine snow. Dropped from 41 to 37.
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
light rain, 38 and heading down in New Hope, PA
kalleg- Posts : 137
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
Very light, fine snow here. Shocking, actually.
brownie- Posts : 385
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
Nam has upped the ante with QPF though a tick warmer. A general 6-10 inches for NYC metro.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
It seems the snow has broken out over NYC and is spreading south to the Jersey Shore?
OK...
OK...
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
we dropped 4* in the last hour and it is SNOWING!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
first snow in Butler on the Kinnelon/West Milford line!
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
Some drizzle now. 41*
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
you would think the mesos would have very justified track at this point among each other. Nope. 18Z RGEM and NAM are quite different. NAM much more tucked inside BM even more than Euro while RGEM is much closer to BM. Consequently RGEM is much colder solution.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
40* with a cold light rain here. Dew point is 28*. Feels like snow is not far off and radar confirms that. I expect a changeover to light snow in the next hour or two. So far radar is developing consistent with what the short-range models showed earlier so they are on target thus far.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
Temperature has dropped to 33.5 which is encouraging.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
Something made TWC a bit more bullish for the coast, we're now 1-3 with accumulating snow for 4-5 hours tonight on a front end thump. Now if that back end thump from the GFS come thru...
This storm seems a bit more amped than was progged, no? Does that back a colder, or warmer, solution? Or not necessarily either?
This storm seems a bit more amped than was progged, no? Does that back a colder, or warmer, solution? Or not necessarily either?
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
39 light rain
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
heehaw453 wrote:you would think the mesos would have very justified track at this point among each other. Nope. 18Z RGEM and NAM are quite different. NAM much more tucked inside BM even more than Euro while RGEM is much closer to BM. Consequently RGEM is much colder solution.
Which model is closer to what is happening with the storm at this point? I would assume we follow that model if it has predicted what is happening now with development, movement and precip.
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Re: Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm
Raining by me.
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