Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

An absolute paste bomb in Manhattan currently

@weatherwatchermom wrote:

@Frank_Wx wrote:

@Irish wrote:Major mixing for me in CNJ, rain, sleet and snow. We won't touch big amounts. Maybe 3-4 total.

@justdrew wrote:Middletown NJ - 3 inches - just changed over to sleet

This was well modeled and not a shock after the temp maps I just posted.

Do you think this area will change back to snow?

Yes, for the last 30-60 minutes or so of the storm. Precip should shut off around 2:30am

Mesoscale Discussion 0157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2019

Areas affected...Northern New Jersey northeastward into southern
Massachusetts

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 040344Z - 040745Z

SUMMARY...Light to moderate snow from northern New Jersey
northeastward up the Atlantic coast will increase to heavy snow
within the next few hours. Snowfall rates may exceed 2 inches per
hour in the heaviest snow bands.

DISCUSSION...Composite reflectivity shows increasingly heavy
precipitation lifting north across New Jersey at 03Z as
low-to-mid-level frontogenesis strengthens north of a surface low
currently located near the southeast Virginia coast. As these
heavier precipitation rates lift into the cold air, snowfall rates
are expected to increase. At the peak, snowfall rates may exceed 2
inches per hour in a corridor from near New York City to Providence,
Rhode Island where slantwise instability will likely enhance
localized banding.

The latest high resolution guidance suggests warm air aloft will
remain mostly offshore, but an eventual transition to freezing rain
or rain is possible in eastern Long Island and far southeast
Massachusetts.

..Bentley.. 03/04/2019

I'm at 7" currently. By the looks of the radar, I get another 1-2". Will measure in the morning. March total snowfall so far 12.5" and 32" for season. March seems to be the new February lately and it's bailed me out the last 3 years here.

6 in - midnight. Probably finish with around 7 or so. Night folks!

32 with moderate snow, about 3 inches

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Haven't heard much from the South and Central Jersey coast crew. I'm assuming those yellow bands are rain and not snow there?

CP, I'm at exit 80 of the GSP, about exactly halfway from the Hook to the Cape, about 2-3 miles in off the barrier-island coastline (Seaside Heights- think Snooki and Jwoww- is actually directly east of me). Anyway, at exactly 5:30 pm, light rain turned to moderate sleet. By 6 pm that moderate sleet began to mix with snow. By 6:30, it was back to all sleet and it basically sleeted for 60-90 min, before changing back to all rain by 8-9 pm.

I never really saw this coming together down here. Way too many models continued to keep us warm throughout to be able to discount that. This time of year, the coast cannot work with marginal temps without also having genuine dynamics in a storm- like last March 21.

And we all know the coast is always high risk, high reward. You all taught me that at the coast: If you want the snow, you gotta smell the rain.

Well, sometimes when you smell the rain, you get 13" of thundersnow in 5-6 hours. Today (and usually) we got the rain.

Oh well. "You get you get and you don't get upset." If that's good enough for the kiddos, it's good enough for me!

Glad to hear that many of you did get/are getting good snow! Enjoy and may you stay under radar all night!

Like not being able to leave the craps table. The storm is pushing in a good fetch of moisture. It did drop 3 MB in last hour. I guess I've come this far...

@heehaw453 wrote:Like not being able to leave the craps table.  The storm is pushing in a good fetch of moisture.  It did drop 3 MB in last hour.  I guess I've come this far...

Why do you think casinos offer free booze...but no windows or wall clocks? ha ha

But back end thump potential always does exist if the low does get itself going, right?

Looks like the Rockaways and the Hamptons are starting to mix

@SENJsnowman wrote:

@heehaw453 wrote:Like not being able to leave the craps table.  The storm is pushing in a good fetch of moisture.  It did drop 3 MB in last hour.  I guess I've come this far...

Why do you think casinos offer free booze...but no windows or wall clocks? ha ha

But back end thump potential always does exist if the low does get itself going, right?

I would think a bit of banding as it intensifies and moves NE. It's projected to drop another 10 MB or so.

7 inches even and still snowing heavily. Upton kept lowering HV totals, well they were wrong.

30.6° and no wind. It's like heaven out there, at least my version of it. Going to bed hoping for double digits by morning. Actually expecting it now.

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:7 inches even and still snowing heavily. Upton kept lowering HV totals, well they were wrong.

30.6° and no wind. It's like heaven out there, at least my version of it. Going to bed hoping for double digits by morning. Actually expecting it now.

So funny how the modeling trended away from you guys and right towards us...you just never know what's actually gonna happen. Enjoy, it's the LHV time of year anyhow!

@SENJsnowman wrote:

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:7 inches even and still snowing heavily. Upton kept lowering HV totals, well they were wrong.

30.6° and no wind. It's like heaven out there, at least my version of it. Going to bed hoping for double digits by morning. Actually expecting it now.

So funny how the modeling trended away from you guys and right towards us...you just never know what's actually gonna happen. Enjoy, it's the LHV time of year anyhow!

True, I was concerned down your way when I kept seeing the clown maps showing 9 inches over Baltimore knowing full well they weren't getting an inch. Temperatures were so marginal in this it was a crap shoot for anyone near the ocean.

1:00am
Lake Mahopac NY
32*
7.0" on the deck rails

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:7 inches even and still snowing heavily. Upton kept lowering HV totals, well they were wrong.

30.6° and no wind. It's like heaven out there, at least my version of it. Going to bed hoping for double digits by morning. Actually expecting it now.

Looks like it stopped CP, by visual and radar.Eyeballing 8 inches but will wait for trained spotter.Nice to be on high end of the range for a change.Nice set up for the cold coming in this week.Give Ophelia an extra helping of Groundhog Chow.

Busted low here,too much mixing. Maybe 3 inches. Temps never got lower than 33.

As per the TWC past radar run, only small pockets of southern Long Island/NYC saw mixing or rain tonight. Eastern Nassau and pretty much the whole northern edge of NYC/LI thru eastern Suffolk mostly stayed snow as well.

From about mid Nassua on, all the way out to Montouk, it switched to all rain except that northern edge.

TWC future radar trying to bring a back-end thump for Eastern half of NJ and NYC/LI from 5-7 am. Would be bad timing, but looking at how quick it has things moving, I think that maybe this won't come close to a 2-hour thump, and my hunch those radar bands could be light or empty when they pass over.

3:30 am. My Orange County brethren are up so early as are others. Here it is 30 degrees, and I too eyeball about eight. It has stopped snowing except for a few stray flurries. A nice snow event for me/us/some. I am a bit surprised at the temp vs. the snow. The temp is warmer than I thought. I would be surprised if things are not closed up here. It is a heavy snow to get up between now and later.

That lack of blocking just ruined the back-end potential. Compare with last March 21, when the NAO block (or whatever it was) held that redeveloping coastal low in place for hours as many of us got pelted like sitting ducks with hours of great snow after enduring a day and a half of cold rain.

Now, as the (in my case raging rain) storm passes and the cold air rushes in, the storm can't get away from the cold air fast enough.

Oh well, back to sleep I guess...

Done here, about 8", a little overperformer!

Maaaajor bust in Manhattan. Looks like 2-3 inches at most. Snow has stopped.

@SoulSingMG wrote:Maaaajor bust in Manhattan. Looks like 2-3 inches at most. Snow has stopped.

Doesnt look all that great here either.
I see maybe an inch or 2 on pavement and melting now. Sat was more impressive.

6.5'' of heavy wet cement.