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Post by GreyBeard on Wed May 13, 2020 9:44 pm

@amugs wrote:Grey look at my post my man I referred to NJ not the world with me numbers.
   


Then what was your meaning of 9 million peeps as of today? Apparently I misunderstood you.

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Post by sroc4 on Thu May 14, 2020 10:43 am

So I have been trying to stay quiet. But here is some info Ive posted in other areas of social media. Keep these two facts in mind. 1) How to handle the virus and the economy has been and will continue to be very political even though it shouldn't be. It will be until the Nov election and will likely continue after. The left wants economic crisis at the expense of removing Trump at all costs, and the Right is trying to counteract that, sometimes at the possible expense of our societies overall health, and Social media perpetuates this divide on both sides.

Unfotunately the media and social media world is dominated by the liberals. So many keep touting this idea that we have to follow the science.

SCIENCE. What does science really mean? So many idiots on social media out there who keep talking about "the science" as if they really know what that means. "Its science." "You cant deny science." It is quite clear that so many out there have ZERO clue what science really is, even those who have studied it all their lives. We are ALL victims of our bias's. This happens on the subconscious level. Just because someone presents something to you in a way that's easy to understand and makes sense to you does not mean its fact. You believe it because someone smarter than you presented it to you, many others smarter than you agree with this idea, and it's what you want to believe; making any idea contradictory...."bad science"

But see that's the thing about science. Things that are allegedly known as facts in science are not actually facts at all. Its merely a truth based off what we think we understand about a subject. We go along with these truths because they work in most instances. But in science nothing is ever perfect 100% of the time. There are always instances where we cant quite explain something in these few instances despite most times it works just fine.

Science is like breaking down an engine and putting it back together but always having a few left over parts. The engine still runs, sometimes quite smoothly, and perhaps for a long time. You’re still scratching your head because you have left over parts that were there all along but the engine apparently runs just fine. So you push those spare parts aside because they are apparently not needed. And so for awhile the engine runs just fine; perhaps days, weeks, months, years, or even decades. But then all of a sudden things begin to break down in the engine. First this part fails, then that part. Its not quite clear why this break down occurs. The engine has been running normally for a long time, so we chalk it up to normal wear and tear; the normal life span of the engine. Those left over parts are an after thought. But then someone comes along and is brave enough to re-incorporate the prev left out parts, and some time goes by. Now over time we begin to understand that those left over parts were key to preventing perhaps this one very tiny piece from deteriorating, which in turn helped explain while this part of the puzzle happened and so on and so on. THIS my friends is science. THERE ARE ALWAYS LEFT OVER PARTS. And they too play a role in the big picture, some more importantly than others. So no mater how much understanding we think we have on a subject, and no matter how much you want to believe something is fact, and no matter how much you want to disagree with someone else's ideas that may go against what we think we know as fact, SCIENCE IS someone willing to take those left over parts and figure out how they fit into the engine even though society tells them the engine works just fine without them. So Its time for so many of you to shut your mouths and open your minds. Enter in politics. Not everything the other side says is perfect, but if your not willing to at least listen you may miss the small left over part that actually does fit into the engine, and will make it run even better; for even longer.

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Post by sroc4 on Thu May 14, 2020 10:50 am

In science there are ALWAYS:
1) things we know
2) things we think we know and
3) things we just don't know.

The problem in this current situation is that there is a lot that has never been seen before making number 2 above even more relevant. "Things we think we know"

Here are some really great videos from a human board certified pulmonologist, criticalist, and internal medicine specialist discussing just how complex this virus really is and its physiology. He does a great job breaking things down in a way that most laymen will understand, but it is still somewhat technical so some may still struggle with the details. I stronglyt encourage you to take a listen as he addresses some import aspects of what we know, think we know, and just dont know yet about the how and why this disease operates. Enjoy!

This one was posted mid April


This one posted May 6th:


And this is the link to this guys channel with all his videos if interested.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Mike+Hnasen

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Post by sroc4 on Thu May 14, 2020 10:59 am

For the record I am in the camp of getting things going again in a safe way. We will likely see some minor increases in cases as this happens in certain areas, but it wont nearly be like it was in early March because we are smarter now in our social distancing practices in public, and mask wearing. And now that we have flattened the curve, which was needed so our healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed, we need to get going again.  Health care workers are now caught up and better prepared even in hot zones like where I live out on LI.   Here is a video that is not quite as professional as the ones I posted above but sums up pretty nicely the way I think many of us feel right now.    

https://www.instagram.com/p/CAJbYtmnLiP/

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Post by Grselig on Thu May 14, 2020 1:36 pm

@sroc4 wrote:For the record I am in the camp of getting things going again in a safe way. We will likely see some minor increases in cases as this happens in certain areas, but it wont nearly be like it was in early March because we are smarter now in our social distancing practices in public, and mask wearing.  And now that we have flattened the curve, which was needed so our healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed, we need to get going again.  Health care workers are now caught up and better prepared even in hot zones like where I live out on LI.   Here is a video that is not quite as professional as the ones I posted above but sums up pretty nicely the way I think many of us feel right now.    

https://www.instagram.com/p/CAJbYtmnLiP/

Glad you stopped by. 1) you are okay. 2) great post. Informative. I just watched a video by Dr. Hansen and like him quite a bit. Thanks for sharing.
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Post by jimv45 on Thu May 14, 2020 1:51 pm

Yea Sroc getting back in a safe way! But what is safe? when lots of the top people say if you open to soon this thing could go back the other way in a hurry, we still don't know what this virus can do! And for people putting numbers up and comparing this to the flu is insane the flu yes kills people too i get it but there is a vaccine for that and a med Tamiflu that can help people yes people will die from the flu but there is nothing for this virus yet you can say that can help to make people feel more safe! I not saying never open I am saying this thing if we open to soon will come back with a fury and then we start the whole thing over again don't want that.

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Post by GreyBeard on Thu May 14, 2020 2:12 pm

I think the whole re-opening thing is going to be one giant mess. Was just reading that the Wisconsin supreme court lifted the stay at home ban and people were heading out to the bars.There is no plan in place, towns are making their own rules. Some are still staying home,others not.

If there isn't a unified orderly process for all, then I think things will get out of hand in a hurry. If one town is back to business as usual and the next town over isn't, what's to stop people from just going over to the town that is no longer under restrictions?Here is the article if anyone is  interested.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/open-immediately-wisconsinites-head-out-to-bars-after-state-stay-at-home-orders-lifted/ar-BB144Lhn?li=BBnb7Kz

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Post by jimv45 on Thu May 14, 2020 2:23 pm

Yep greybeard one big mess, and just think there may not be a vaccine for another year. People are going nuts being told what to do many will not follow rules and many more lives will be lost, but we can't stay closed forever but just hope people can learn from what we went through. But it doesn't look like many will!!

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Post by sroc4 on Thu May 14, 2020 2:34 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Yea Sroc getting back in a safe way!  But what is safe? when lots of the top people say if you open to soon this thing could go back the other way in a hurry, we still don't know what this virus can do! And for people putting numbers up and comparing this to the flu is insane the flu yes kills people too i get it but there is a vaccine for that and a med Tamiflu that can help people yes people will die from the flu but there is nothing for this virus yet you can say that can help to make people feel more safe!  I not saying never open I am saying this thing if we open to soon will come back with a fury and then we start the whole thing over again don't want that.

Jim The problem is the people at the top are politicians. Mugsy has pointe out some really important points. Suicides, heart failure, child abuse cases, sexual abuse cases, spousal abuse cases, depression, etc the list goes on has sky rocketed. Deaths from this virus so far are a fraction of what all these others problems are. Im not saying its not scary, but which death is worse? The guy who has no finacial means to provide for his family so he takes his own life, or the guy who has a heart attack and dies at home because he was too scared to go to the ER for fear of catching corona, or the death from the corona virus itself? Because while we have saved some lives by doing what we have so far, now you have those other deaths mounting. Why is this better. The social distancing thing has never been to destroy the virus. It was to flatten the curve so that our health care system isnt overwhelmed. We are there now. The fear of it exploding again like a California wild fire, and the reality of what will actually happen are not one and the same. Georgia has been open for 3 weeks and there has been ZERO spike in new cases.

If we open up but require the social distancing as best as possible in businesses, and people are wearing their masks while indoors to these establishments, the likely hood of the asymptomatic carrier passing it along to you or me is really REALLY small. Eventually 10-14 days goes by, that person is no longer shedding virus, and develops antibodies. Antibodies dont guarantee that the individual cant catch it again, but it gives them a fighting chance. We cant hide under the rock forever.
If your scared stay home. If your symptomatic stay home and isolate and call your Dr. If your old or immune-compromised cont to take extra precautions. If you have to be out and about wear your mask in public. The truth is the majority of people with this disease do not develop the serious complications.

I have had one of my employees test positive back in March. I have followed every protocol set forth by the state health department and not a single other employee has fallen ill, and I have been working the entire time. (Im a veterinarian). I as recently as last week have had the blood antibody test and came back negative. As long as you do the right thing and you are relatively healthy individual, you are likely safe to take care of what you need to in the world. This is not an all or none thing. If you have someone high risk at home then take extra precaution. Here is a great quote from someone on FB. Author unknown:

“Flattening the curve didn’t mean stop the infection, but spread it out so that the system could handle it. I am seeing so much anxiety about resuming business, and so much anger about continued regulations. People are feeling the need to catapult to one side or the other, then fight the opposition.

Here’s my perspective, from a mainstream medical model. I think a lot of folks have fallen into the idea that social distancing was meant to stop the viral spread. It wasn’t. It was meant to SLOW it while we put medical infrastructure in place. It’s not perfect, but it’s much better than it was seven weeks ago.

A vaccine is a long way off. At some point, people have to be systematically exposed to begin the building of (hopeful) herd immunity. We will likely begin to experience a real increase in cases after reopening. Ideally, that exposure is controlled and calculated, in phases, to allow our medical community to respond adequately, and reduce the number of severe or fatal cases. That’s where we are.

Whether you feel like things will be opening too soon, or not soon enough, we were never going to social distance this thing into nonexistence. You now need to proceed as your health, wallet, and conscience allow.

If you are medically vulnerable, you do not need to be a part of what is about to happen. Stay home if you can. If you’re not, or if your financial vulnerability trumps your health concerns, you need to proceed in ways that continue to protect yourself, and the elderly and medically vulnerable around you.

All of us need to calm down. Quit telling people who are financially struggling that they don’t care about human lives. Quit telling people who are truly at risk of dying from this virus that they are cowering in fear. Remember that until you’ve walked in someone else’s shoes, you should probably be careful in your judgements and subsequent harsh words.

We don’t HAVE to choose an either/or proposition and fight. We could choose other ways to be. Examples include but are not limited to:

“I think this may be too soon, so I will continue to shelter myself, and pray/make masks/ check on those who can’t.”

“I really need to go back to work, so I will do so, but I will be careful and try to protect myself, my family, and those around me with healthy strategies.”

See how those positions allow each of us to do what we need to, and also respect those who are choosing differently?

One thing that allows us to do this is humility. I can acknowledge that I am not an epidemiologist/economist/whatever, that I am making decisions based on my understanding of complex subjects and my own personal health and financial situation, that I am not all knowing, always right, and an expert in all fields, and that each person around me is doing their best too. We can make different choices and still be a supportive community. We can learn and evolve in our understanding of these issues.

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Post by jimv45 on Thu May 14, 2020 2:47 pm

Yes Sroc you make some good points!! But people are not following the rules now I see many people at parks in groups like nothing is going on!!! I am talking local where we know how bad this is, lifting the stay at home is going to happen life will not be the same for a while even so but nobody not you not I can say what is to soon all I am saying with things this virus is doing seems to change every week now with kids that they said before were going to be fine are dying and no Vaccine in site opening here there going to be big problems!

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Post by brownie on Thu May 14, 2020 4:50 pm

I went to five stores today, flower shopping.  That is the most extensive travel I’ve made outside my house in 2 months.  I wore a mask, was mostly outside, the stores weren’t crowded, everyone observed social distancing.  I felt perfectly safe.  Am I going to attend a packed concert any time soon?  I doubt it, but you have to start thinking logically and start living life again.  So what if some people get too close to each other at a park or on a beach or in a bar?  Stay away from them!  I participated in a local election for my HOA this week as a ballot counter.  8 of us there together, all wore masks, stayed away from each other, some people Zoomed in.  It was SO good to have some social interaction again.  As long as YOU take prudent precautions - wear a mask, don’t get too close - I believe you can and should live your life.  Use common sense.  Stay away from situations you think are risky.  But I don’t think EVERYTHING is risky.  After 8.5 weeks at home alone, I am resuming my life.  I even went to a doctor’s office last week and hung around to chat, and I am still fine. Be smart.  Wear a mask, don’t get too close.

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu May 14, 2020 4:53 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Yes Sroc you make some good points!!  But people are not following the rules now I see many people at parks in groups like nothing is going on!!!  I am talking local where we know how bad this is, lifting the stay at home is going to happen life will not be the same for a while even so but nobody not you not I can say what is to soon all I am saying with things this virus is doing seems to change every week now with kids that they said before were going to be fine are dying and no Vaccine in site opening here there going to be big problems!  
I agree, but I see Scotts points too but also opening and seeing a big increase in cases scott will not keep things open they will seal us shut harder than before. They (the people in charge) will lock us back down and we will continue this in a cyclical fashion until there is some type of vaccine, and a stable one at that. No way i am taking the first one, it could prove fatal as they are not adequately testing and rushing to get any old thing out. it will be years before we have a stable proven vaccine and until then we will spirial in and out of trying to open and closing again for 60 days. When we open people will flock to those areas, NY to NJ, NJ to NY, NY to CT etc. And if they open AC and the casinos in CT (there will be a lot of restrictions though that for those that like to go to the casino will not like, and CT has sovereign nation casinos so they can defy the government) it will be a mega disaster of infection. Do not get me wrong no one wants things to be as they were or at least close (I will wear a mask, though summer will suck) than I do, So many pleasures in my life have been depleted I am not self medicating with food and its really bad. Sitting at home al lday working and doing other things is not fun, I do get out but not for long. In fact I think ill get some air now, tomorrow its gonna be HOT!
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Post by jimv45 on Thu May 14, 2020 5:28 pm

Yes Jman nobody is wrong here!! Al i fear is starting to soon and paying for it later!!! When they open around here you know it and I know the rules will not be followed by everyone I see that now they are not, This virus is just plan scary a 104 old woman got through it but a 24 year old in perfect health who ran track and played baseball dies nobody is safe from this!!

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Post by jimv45 on Thu May 14, 2020 5:35 pm

Brownie that's good for you but if you think everyone and I don't expect everyone too wear a mask and keep 6 feet apart and follow what you said then you are kidding yourself, this virus is not going anywhere soon and yes life must go on but so does being smart and not saying ok everyone go back to normal and I bet when they open NYC with all these people like you counting down the day to get out there will be many not following what you said in the post but yes life must go on just life will not be the same until they get the vaccine and learn more about this virus.

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Post by sroc4 on Thu May 14, 2020 5:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:Yes Sroc you make some good points!!  But people are not following the rules now I see many people at parks in groups like nothing is going on!!!  I am talking local where we know how bad this is, lifting the stay at home is going to happen life will not be the same for a while even so but nobody not you not I can say what is to soon all I am saying with things this virus is doing seems to change every week now with kids that they said before were going to be fine are dying and no Vaccine in site opening here there going to be big problems!  
I agree, but I see Scotts points too but also opening and seeing a big increase in cases scott will not keep things open they will seal us shut harder than before. They (the people in charge) will lock us back down and we will continue this in a cyclical fashion until there is some type of vaccine, and a stable one at that. No way i am taking the first one, it could prove fatal as they are not adequately testing and rushing to get any old thing out.  it will be years before we have a stable proven vaccine and until then we will spirial in and out of trying to open and closing again for 60 days. When we open people will flock to those areas, NY to NJ, NJ to NY, NY to CT etc. And if they open AC and the casinos in CT (there will be a lot of restrictions though that for those that like to go to the casino will not like, and CT has sovereign nation casinos so they can defy the government) it will be a mega disaster of infection.  Do not get me wrong no one wants things to be as they were or at least close (I will wear a mask, though summer will suck) than I do, So many pleasures in my life have been depleted I am not self medicating with food and its really bad.  Sitting at home al lday working and doing other things is not fun, I do get out but not for long.  In fact I think ill get some air now, tomorrow its gonna be HOT!

There are states already open without that happening.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by jimv45 on Thu May 14, 2020 5:49 pm

Sroc we don't know that to be a fact yet that nothing is happening with these states yet!

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Post by brownie on Thu May 14, 2020 6:00 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Brownie that's good for you but if you think everyone and I don't expect everyone too wear a mask and keep 6 feet apart and follow what you said then you are kidding yourself, this virus is not going anywhere soon and yes life must go on but so does being smart and not saying ok everyone go back to normal and I bet when they open NYC with all these people like you counting down the day to get out there will be many not following what you said in the post but yes life must go on just life will not be the same until they get the vaccine and learn more about this virus.
Trust me, I am not “counting down the days to get out there.”. I realize most of what I used to do for leisure and entertainment is no longer possible for the foreseeable future, but you CAN go out and not be at great risk.  I don’t know if I’ll ever go to NYC again.  But I definitely have realized in the past week that I can leave my house and interact with others without putting either them or myself in any great danger.

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Post by jimv45 on Thu May 14, 2020 6:19 pm

Yes Brownie I don't care when they open NYC I would never go there! I am not fighting to keep everything closed as I went out for a plant on mothers day and yes everyone had a mask except one young girl but it only takes one fool to get this going, All I am saying if we open to soon they will regret that move not totally knowing how this virus acts, facts are that I heard all the experts saying that children are at no risk when this started now look and who knows if this is airborne as well like some experts I read think it might be just got to be smart that's all I am saying!!!

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Post by GreyBeard on Thu May 14, 2020 6:38 pm

Jim,you seem to be getting more upset the more the discussion goes on. What it boils down to is that You have to do what feels right for You. You are right,not everything is known about this virus. I have read that the virus can enter you through your eyes. I have read that using your air conditioning could circulate the virus,wouldn't that be wonderful with summer approaching? There are no guarantees that a vaccine will ever be found. Please try and not drive yourself crazy with worry. We have to have some optimism that this will be over sooner rather than later. Hang in there the best you can.

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Post by jimv45 on Thu May 14, 2020 6:47 pm

No Greybeard don't mean to write and sound that I am upset I am really not!! Just feel with 150 to 200 a day still dying in NY state for some of this state its still to early to say lets go!! I see NJ is starting to open they were hit bad too hope for some good luck to them but the City is what I am mostly worried about for those people because when they open how in the hell is that going to work you can't stay 2 feet apart never mind 6 is wasn't built for that to be that far apart. Greybeard where I am in Ulster they will be opening soon it hasn't been to bad near me. hope all is well!!

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Post by Grselig on Thu May 14, 2020 6:52 pm

NJ opening is obviously a bit of concern, but I think we are being smart. Limit contact. Limit distance. Masks. I'm a fan of curbside pickup. In NJ we do have about 1,000 new cases a day reported. Its dropped from 3,000 about 2 weeks ago. What are the circumstances of the new cases? We need to open, but monitor carefully. People have to be smart.
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Post by GreyBeard on Thu May 14, 2020 6:53 pm

Jim,Glad to hear that. Stay well.

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Post by GreyBeard on Thu May 14, 2020 8:21 pm

Pandemics that changed history. It's a wonder we are still here.

https://www.history.com/topics/middle-ages/pandemics-timeline

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri May 15, 2020 12:31 am

@GreyBeard wrote:Pandemics that changed history. It's a wonder we are still here.

https://www.history.com/topics/middle-ages/pandemics-timeline
I am not going to speak for NJ because I do not know or see NJ everyday but HERE in NY, people are morons and losing their minds. Today in Wendys, (yes I go out sometimes, I am not being uncautious but I also have to get out ocasionally, stand back and always wear a mask) a guy flipped out on the manager because of a coupon not specifying breakfast times and he wanted breakfast at 4:30pm!! He demanded it and had to be brought out of the store after trying to grab the guy and threw the coupon at hom. I was waiting for hi mto spit honestly. The kids here, ohhhh the kids. I am very concerned for these teens. Playing in mass groups (police dont give a shit they turn a blind eye despite the requirement of a mask, even outside), they had a large vigil for nurses in untermyer park, it did not look like no social distancing to me!! And these were nurses at the hospital! I saw it on facebook I wasnt there. And a big group photo with masks on. I mean really? Your a nurse you toot about all the correct things to do and then you don't do it yourself? I support all the medical field people and any essential service, I do but that seemed like a very dumb idea by Yonkers officials. As summer comes crime rises in yonkers, teens get more roudy, well hell its going to be doomsday here!!! Couped up for 2 months and now they say its time to reopen slowly while kids pile into the streets with no parks pools or recreation?! Sorry but unless by some luck like scott said the cases do not rise we are in for a rude awakening. I am trying to stay positive but I am just seeing way to much lax in this already, and have been for weeks. In March and through a large part of april the roads were a ghost town. Now you wouldnt even know anythings going on!!! Well there isnt traffic like there is usually but I still got into some traffic when picking up my 2 curbside AC to replace our old mildew ones figured we do not want to cause any resipratory issues if we can help it! (btw the thing about AC spreading the virus means inside if someone has it by blowing the water droplets around if the force of the air is strong enough. Not it being brought in from outside, you can turn on your AC with no worry, especially at home). I know many will be forced to go back to work or gladly go back to work, for me I have no choice but to work from home through June 30th and it has not been determined about our summer session yet if we will return to the school or not. I find it hard to believe we will. These are 18 month to 3 year olds, they can't wear a mask, they can't socially distance, honestly I have no clue how any childcare setting is going to be safe. I guess we will see, there are just still so many unknowns.
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Post by docstox12 on Fri May 15, 2020 6:41 am

Just read that Cuomo extended the lockdown for most areas of New York State until June 13th.Broadway shows will not re-open until Labor day and even schools re-opening in September are in doubt.
If the Federal Government does not send billions to New York State, many small businesses will go belly up.
Looks like we have our own scientific experiment set up now.States that re-open earlier versus states like New York that remain mostly in lockdown.Let's all pray the results are not deadly.As Doc said above, we will soon find out the results of what we think we know.
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