Re: Banter Thread 5.0

[docstox12]

Seems we are experiencing shades of last year.    Big storm signal that goes away for our backyard. Long term potential that faded.  I know it’s mid December, but I see the outline of a panic button

It's very early but I agree with you.Not liking the pattern at all so far.Big rainstorms then slop.I just got lucky being in the LHV with the one snowstorm earlier this month.It was not widespread.

[heehaw453]

Context.  

He was concerned about snowfall forecast of general 2-6" which obviously didn't come to fruition. Went offline at 8 and said snow forecast was on track which was just not regarding observations.

Predicting the weather in particular snowfall is such a humbling experience.  Maybe a better reaction would be sorry guys i missed this one?

[Grselig]

Context.  

He was concerned about snowfall forecast of general 2-6" which obviously didn't come to fruition.  Went offline at 8 and said snow forecast was on track which was just not regarding observations.

Predicting the weather in particular snowfall is such a humbling experience.  Maybe a better reaction would be sorry guys i missed this one?

He's always been a bit of a flake.  Don't ever want to disparage any forecaster, its tough to get right.  But a few years ago he kept on harping about a hurricane still able to hit us after all evidence said its not a problem for our area. He just could not let go.  

On a different not,  Heehaw, thanks for sharing your knowledge!

[Grselig]

Happy Holidays Syo!  

Just read that we may have a storm on the 22nd.  Please move it up a day.  Star Wars movie tickets with my little guy that day.  Hopefully lots of white (no jinx), but starting on the evening, not afternoon.

Yeah a lot of folks would be upset for sure if they couldn't go to see it! I haven't made plans yet for that. Are you watching the Mandalorian?

Looks like we are safe. Mixed reviews, but its going to be fun!

[amugs]

Thank you all for the birthday wishes yesterday. It was a great day and thankful to be healthy for my 5-0 bday!!
Now, what's the whining all about in here. This has been an active December with tracking happening since the end of November. The last time we had such was 2013. Sector 13 and 14 are open on OTI for those who need a break from this as is Cell Block L (short for lunacy). Has it worked out from fanstasy land - no, but last storm was a driving rainstorm as per CP post when I said other and it tried. It was a wintry storm that if were all rain peeps would be biaging about this. The pattern will reboot and we'll be back in business tracking things more substantial as indicators are showing (EPO, NAO/AO and PV areas). The chase is 1/2 the fun hands down.
The snow did not come to fruition but the ice did for most. 93-94 analog winter had a lot of ice events so following this analog it is very close so far. Once teh pattern settled in and matured we were off to the races with storms every 3-4 days if you recall.
BTW we are breaking low solar and cosmic ray, irradiance records from modern space age times
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 34 days
2019 total: 271 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 17 Dec 2019


1878 I see you - Doc and CP remember these golden years LOL!! next up after we blow through those olf's is 1901 - this is more Doc and CP's time frame !!

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.17x1010 W Cold

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +10.0% High
7-day change: +1.2%
Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)

Means more cloudy days, high precipitable and severish storms. Moer blockiness in the high latitudes

Another VEI 2/3 explosions here
Sabancaya Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: continuous ash emissions to 30000 ft (9100 m)
Tue, 17 Dec 2019, 23:30

[heehaw453]

Context.  

He was concerned about snowfall forecast of general 2-6" which obviously didn't come to fruition.  Went offline at 8 and said snow forecast was on track which was just not regarding observations.

Predicting the weather in particular snowfall is such a humbling experience.  Maybe a better reaction would be sorry guys i missed this one?

He's always been a bit of a flake.  Don't ever want to disparage any forecaster, its tough to get right.  But a few years ago he kept on harping about a hurricane still able to hit us after all evidence said its not a problem for our area. He just could not let go.  

On a different not,  Heehaw, thanks for sharing your knowledge!

Absolutely. We all learn a lot from each other here! My all time favorite from Steve D was January 2015. Remember the blizzard (Weather Channel named it Juno) that was supposed to clobber everyone right into EPA? It was past 3 AM and he was still tweeting about clear moisture transports at 700mb which would carry snow banding inland and his snowfall forecast would verify. I don't think he actually stopped until the storm had cleared Maine.

[Frank_Wx]

Context.  

He was concerned about snowfall forecast of general 2-6" which obviously didn't come to fruition.  Went offline at 8 and said snow forecast was on track which was just not regarding observations.

Predicting the weather in particular snowfall is such a humbling experience.  Maybe a better reaction would be sorry guys i missed this one?

Definitely not easy to forecast. All he can do is explain what went wrong and move onto the next.

[mikeypizano]

Context.  

He was concerned about snowfall forecast of general 2-6" which obviously didn't come to fruition.  Went offline at 8 and said snow forecast was on track which was just not regarding observations.

Predicting the weather in particular snowfall is such a humbling experience.  Maybe a better reaction would be sorry guys i missed this one?

Definitely not easy to forecast. All he can do is explain what went wrong and move onto the next.

Maybe they should fix the damn models since they can't get anything right...

[Grselig]

Context.  

He was concerned about snowfall forecast of general 2-6" which obviously didn't come to fruition.  Went offline at 8 and said snow forecast was on track which was just not regarding observations.

Predicting the weather in particular snowfall is such a humbling experience.  Maybe a better reaction would be sorry guys i missed this one?

Definitely not easy to forecast. All he can do is explain what went wrong and move onto the next.

Maybe they should fix the damn models since they can't get anything right...

Well Mikey P., the models offer guidance. It is surly unwise to to simply hug a model and hope for the best. If you are too literal ya might end up in jail. Take the time to understand all the possibillities. People like you just walk around blindly screaming snow at the toilet paper and water line in the supermaket. You scream fire in a movie theater. Maybe you catch the chaos on you phone to post on YouTube. So stop being an excitable boy and apologize to the models for your problems!

Now I'm not joking at this point - its very cool reading the posts by people who can put together the data, make sense of it and offer insights. A good analysis offers paths to what can go right and how things turn to rain or just dry. Others can make sense and make mature conclusions. That's why I think this is a great site. Posts by people who share their knowledge. I can anticipate potential weather, knowing both the good and bad.

[mikeypizano]

Context.  

He was concerned about snowfall forecast of general 2-6" which obviously didn't come to fruition.  Went offline at 8 and said snow forecast was on track which was just not regarding observations.

Predicting the weather in particular snowfall is such a humbling experience.  Maybe a better reaction would be sorry guys i missed this one?

Definitely not easy to forecast. All he can do is explain what went wrong and move onto the next.

Maybe they should fix the damn models since they can't get anything right...

Well Mikey P., the  models offer guidance.  It is surly unwise to to simply hug a model and hope for the best.  If you are too literal ya might end up in jail.  Take the time to understand all the possibillities. People like you just walk around blindly screaming snow at the toilet paper and water line in the supermaket.  You scream fire in a movie theater.   Maybe you catch the chaos  on you phone to post on YouTube. So stop being an excitable boy and apologize to  the models for your problems!  

Now I'm not joking at this point - its very cool reading the posts by people who can put together the data, make sense of it and offer insights.  A good analysis offers paths to what can go right and how things turn to rain or just dry.  Others can make sense and make mature conclusions.  That's why I think this is a great site.  Posts by people who share their knowledge.   I can anticipate potential weather, knowing both the good and bad.

No, we must demand proper functioning models!

[Dunnzoo]

A post from Joe Cioffi:

TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS (snow lover version) I wrote this December 2014.

Twas the night before Christmas and all through the east
Not a snowflake was flying, Not one in the least

Snow lovers where checking inside of a stocking
To see if Santa would leave them some blocking
The pattern you see is very complex
Because ot the northernmost polar vortex

While some models show the pattern will switch
there is always a model that puts up a hitch
The weenies all lined up along side a bridge
And threatened to jump because of the ridge

But whether it changes or just stays the same
The day to day weather will always remain
A challenge to forecast for which is your call
From Joe Cioffi the wish, Merry Christmas to All!

[dkodgis]

A nice poem. Thank you for sharing.

Am I the only one who heard that Mugs got up on the table and turned that mutha out?

[docstox12]

A post from Joe Cioffi:

TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS (snow lover version) I wrote this December 2014.

Twas the night before Christmas and all through the east
Not a snowflake was flying, Not one in the least

Snow lovers where checking inside of a stocking
To see if Santa would leave them some blocking
The pattern you see is very complex
Because ot the northernmost polar vortex

While some models show the pattern will switch
there is always a model that puts up a hitch
The weenies all lined up along side a bridge
And threatened to jump because of the ridge

But whether it changes or just stays the same
The day to day weather will always remain
A challenge to forecast for which is your call
From Joe Cioffi the wish, Merry Christmas to All!

[weatherwatchermom]

A post from Joe Cioffi:

TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS (snow lover version) I wrote this December 2014.

Twas the night before Christmas and all through the east
Not a snowflake was flying, Not one in the least

Snow lovers where checking inside of a stocking
To see if Santa would leave them some blocking
The pattern you see is very complex
Because ot the northernmost polar vortex

While some models show the pattern will switch
there is always a model that puts up a hitch
The weenies all lined up along side a bridge
And threatened to jump because of the ridge

But whether it changes or just stays the same
The day to day weather will always remain
A challenge to forecast for which is your call
From Joe Cioffi the wish, Merry Christmas to All!

I love him...what a cute poem!

[Frank_Wx]

What’s everyone’s top 5 Christmas movies?

1. Christmas Carol
2. Christmas Story
3. Elf
4. Home Alone
5. Polar Express

[bloc1357]

1. Home Alone
2. Christmas Vacation
3. The Santa Clause
4. Miracle on 34th St - (The Original)
5. Deck The Halls

[docstox12]

1.Its A Wonderful Life
2.Miracle on 34th St (The Original)
3.Christmas Carol
4.Home Alone
5.Twilight Zone episode with Art Carney "The Night of the Meek"

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1. Its A Wonderful Life
2. Home Alone
3. Elf
4. Miracle on 34th street
Tie for 5th
5. Christmas Carol
5. A Charlie Brown Christmas (classic for it's simplicity)
5. Scrooged (only because of Bill Murray)
5. The Santa Clause

[Frank_Wx]

What’s everyone’s top 5 Christmas movies?

1. Christmas Carol
2. Christmas Story
3. Elf
4. Home Alone
5. Polar Express

Since CP added more:

5. The Santa Clause
5. Grinch
5. Jingle all the Way

[Dunnzoo]

1. A Christmas Carol with Patrick Stewart
2. A Christmas Story
3. The Santa Clause
4. Charlie Brown Christmas
5. Miracle on 34th St.

[Grselig]

its a wonderful life
Christmas Story
Die Hard
Polar Express
Klaus (Netflix) was very well done
TV shows: (My kids love these and so do I)
Prep and Landing 1 and 2
Frosty The Snowman

[SENJsnowman]

1. It's a Wonderful Life
1. A Christmas Story
1. Christmas Vacation

[weatherwatchermom]

1. It's a Wonderful Life
2. Polar Express
3. White Christmas
4. Miracle on 34th the original
5 Arthur's Christmas or Scroodge

[Grselig]

Friggin LV setting up show over Alaska, not a good sign for us here on the EC or the CONUS for that matter. No one saw this coming. Another curve ball to the pattern. We'll see how this plays out over the next few days but the promising pattern has once again been de railed for a bit. Here will come the Warmicists and Cliff Divers.
See y'all later

Im giving up. If Mugs posts bad news, its nearly game over. That damn cliff is pretty deep. I'm gonna hold off jumping for another day or two. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukah to all! Maybe Santa can seed the skies tonight for some white gold.

[billg315]

1. National Lampoons Christmas Vacation;
2. A Christmas Story;
3. It’s a Wonderful Life;
4. A Christmas Carol (almost any version, but the Patrick Stewart one was well done in the modern era);
5. Charlie Brown Christmas (if it counts as a movie).

[billg315]

1. National Lampoons Christmas Vacation;
2. A Christmas Story;
3. It’s a Wonderful Life;
4. A Christmas Carol (almost any version, but the Patrick Stewart one was well done in the modern era);
5. Charlie Brown Christmas (if it counts as a movie).

I’d love to work The Grinch (original Boris Karloff) in here too. Five is a tough limit. Lol.

Merry Christmas everyone!!

[Grselig]

Ok. its winter.  My son loves Godzilla. (Thrasher is the reindeer from the TV special Prep and Landing.

Godzila vs. Santa

Twas the morn before Christmas, when all through the house,
Young creatures hungry, whining to my wonderful spouse;
Their tummies were screaming, all ears stung by the harsh blare,
In hopes that tasty breakfast would be quickly there;
The children were wrestling, dad looked on in dread;
While visions of Irish whiskey danced kindly in his head;
And mamma so tired, dearly wanting a nap,
Had succumbed to make breakfast, despite her aching back,
When she reached to the top shelf, the jars fell hard with a splatter,
Dad sprang from sofa to see what was the matter.
To the mess on the floor he made a mad dash,
To his disgust, in the wood planks, there lied a deep gash.
The hole was quite profound, he did indeed know.
When to his frightening eyes, did suddenly appear,
In the back yard he spied a massive reptile stomping down deer,
The size of tall buildings, dad quickly felt sick,
He knew in a moment Godzilla arrived quick.
The disturbance of fallen spices was certainly to blame,
The monster smashed and danced and nothing of the town remained:
"Now, New Jersey! now, Iowa! now California and everything was stricken!
On, Trenton! on, Des Moines! on, Oakland and regrettably grandmas kitchen!
The world was torched! Civilization preparing to fall!
Twas now near night! Red Red Rudolph saw the din! He made a quick call!
As Santa’s sled met the fury, wild blows did fly,
For lengthy minutes battle they engaged, but overmatched, the Big Man was hurled motionless, through the twilight sky;
The reindeers, Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, Vixen, Comet, Cupid, Donder and Blitzen were fearful, doom, they anticipated, they knew,
With blazing fire, Earth was cracking in two—
But then, in a twinkling, I heard on the roof,
The mighty Thrasher with thundering hoof.
He sped toward the city, by twice the speed of sound,
Into the monster he crashed, they fell solidly to the ground.
He screamed not on my watch, and sharpened candy canes flew from his front tooth,
And the beast staggered, confused and covered in sugar and soot;
But with atomic breath, the monster fought back,
Evenly matched the titans engaged, each other attacked.
A tail struck the hero, thrown into a New York water ferry,
Bloodied angry and wet, he rose, writing Godzilla's obituary!
And with horrific vitriol, he delivered a powerful blow,
And the gigantic reptile collapsed, dirtying  the glittering night snow;
But the struggle was not complete,  and Godzilla tore Thrasher’s leg with the sharpest of teeth,
And the reindeer just grinned; to the Monster’s clear disbelief.
He jabbed his front hoof into the beast’s belly,
And he laughed, and kicked and the monster’s legs turned to jelly .
A blast of coal breath put The King on the shelf,
And the white bearded Big Man suddenly woke feeling again like himself;
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,
He thanked his secret ally, ordering there’s things to be done, as kids went to bed;
He snapped his stubby fingers, the world magically rebuilt, Thrasher gave a happy smirk,
And Rudolph screamed, “all, let’s hit the midnight air, get to work.”
With teamwork supreme, they tied all the bows,
And on the high-speed sled, the team enthusiastically rose;
Santa sprang to his sleigh, to his crew gave a whistle,
And away they all flew, like a modern-day missile.
And I heard him exclaim, things were all right—
“Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good night!”