My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

Summer outlook can be found here:



http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

***Scroll down for temperature/pcpn departure forecast details and maps, as well as 90F day forecast.

NJ map of total snowfall for the 2018-19 winter:



http://www.lightinthestorm.com/nj-snowfall



Comments and/or inquiries are appreciated.

Good write up Tom. Getting ready for a hot summer. Opened up my pool over the weekend and already purchased a new AC unit. Any early thoughts with winter 2019/20?

Thanks Tom! CPC also predicting hot and wet summer, I was hoping all the rain would be done after the spring...

Hey Tom I just want to say thank you for your summer outlook. I just hope this summer will not turn out to be like last summer because it was very humid

Thanks all for the comments. And yes, I don't anticipate months on end of 70F dew points akin to last year, although periods of very high dew points are likely.

Thanks for the kind words!

Thank you Tom.

Tom, is there a snow map for NY ?

dkodgis wrote:Tom, is there a snow map for NY ?

Unfortunately, I only produce maps for NJ each season. Doing two states would be quite a tall task. But I encourage someone from NY to begin making them.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1195





VERIFICATION

Temperature Departure Forecast JJA: +1 to +2

NYC/NJ Local Station Departures:

NYC: +1.2
LGA: +2
EWR: +1.3
JFK: +1.2
BDR: +1.9


ISP: +2.1

Mean of all stations: +1.6

This fell directly within the target range. The notion that June would be near normal with increasing heat and humidity in July and August was correct, as well as the forecast for at least one major heat spell.

Precipitation Forecast for JJA was wetter than normal. Results:

NYC: +0.49″
EWR: +2.1″
LGA: +0.53″
JFK: +0.75″
BDR: +0.92″
ISP: -0.35″

Mean of all stations = +0.74″ wetter than normal

This was a wet and active T-storm season overall, as anticipated in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

90 degree day projections / actual:

90 Degree Day Projections / actual through 9/2/2019:

BOS: 14 / 14 error: 0
NYC: 26 / 14 error: +12
LGA: 30 / 23 error: +7
EWR: 33 / 24 error: +9
PHL: 36 / 31 error: +5
DCA: 45 / 52 error: -7
RDU: 52 / 61 error: -9



Total error: +17 [overall, slightly warmer than anticipated]

This was a very good forecast considering the high level of difficulty; the numbers were virtually on target for the Mid-Atlantic and New England. It was slightly too many for the PHL-NYC corridor.

Summer Outlook 2019 Grade:

This will be considered a hit. The forecast was “A” locally. Including the nation-wide picture, the expectation for a very hot West Coast and Mid-atlantic/SE US was correct, and warmer than normal most other locations. The primary flaw was slightly cooler anomalies in the N/C Plains. The nationwide grade is therefore a B+.

The overall final grade is A-



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Tom,

Great work as usual and thank you for sharing.
Here's to a good solid winter my man!!

Mugs

Tom if you added in the 89° days in our local area you would have hit the 90 degree day Mark almost to a T.

Tom if you added in the 89° days in our local area you would have hit the 90 degree day Mark almost to a T. Also it was a very tolerable summer in regards to dew points. we had many days in the upper 80s and low 90s with dew points in the 50s to low 60s and was definitely more tolerable than last summer thanks again for sharing your thoughts

Thanks mugs and algae. Looking forward to the winter outlook period.

tom i hope you had a great summer i cannot believe its over already .thankyou so much for ur summer outlook i can not wait for the winter outlook have a great weekend

Thanks frank and doc as well. Hope all had a good summer here, too. Hard to believe the cool season is already upon us.

Nice work my friend!

Thanks Frank!

Tom, I don’t know how many other ways I can say that your work is remarkable, you did a fantastic job, etc., but I’m getting tired of using the same phrases over and over when reviewing your forecasts and verifications lmaoooo seriously, though, awesome job!! Also, I’m highly anticipating your Winter thoughts, as the progression of multiple factors has me a bit excited, though admittedly, I am a mere novice when it comes to seasonal outlooks haha I know last winter beat up on a lot of people, but I know you hardly ever make the same mistake twice lol

rb924119 wrote:Tom, I don’t know how many other ways I can say that your work is remarkable, you did a fantastic job, etc., but I’m getting tired of using the same phrases over and over when reviewing your forecasts and verifications lmaoooo seriously, though, awesome job!! Also, I’m highly anticipating your Winter thoughts, as the progression of multiple factors has me a bit excited, though admittedly, I am a mere novice when it comes to seasonal outlooks haha I know last winter beat up on a lot of people, but I know you hardly ever make the same mistake twice lol

Ray: thanks for those nice comments! Believe me, I spent a ton of time analyzing, post mortem, last winter, and it turned out to be [at least from my perspective] one of those situations in which I said to myself, "Wow - I cannot believe I didn't see this." And thereafter, kicking myself for missing it...the perfectionist in me. Hindsight is 20/20, but I really think I should have had last winter, after review. But it did help significantly clarify some aspects of the soup of indicators, and further refine my methodology. So in that way, I hope you're right and that type of mistake will not be repeated!

Isotherm wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Tom, I don’t know how many other ways I can say that your work is remarkable, you did a fantastic job, etc., but I’m getting tired of using the same phrases over and over when reviewing your forecasts and verifications lmaoooo seriously, though, awesome job!! Also, I’m highly anticipating your Winter thoughts, as the progression of multiple factors has me a bit excited, though admittedly, I am a mere novice when it comes to seasonal outlooks haha I know last winter beat up on a lot of people, but I know you hardly ever make the same mistake twice lol

Ray: thanks for those nice comments! Believe me, I spent a ton of time analyzing, post mortem, last winter, and it turned out to be [at least from my perspective] one of those situations in which I said to myself, "Wow - I cannot believe I didn't see this." And thereafter, kicking myself for missing it...the perfectionist in me. Hindsight is 20/20, but I really think I should have had last winter, after review. But it did help significantly clarify some aspects of the soup of indicators, and further refine my methodology. So in that way, I hope you're right and that type of mistake will not be repeated!

What was it that you missed? Or was it a culmination of minor things that added up as time went on? I’ll be honest and say that I was never able to read your verification on that

rb924119 wrote:

Isotherm wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Tom, I don’t know how many other ways I can say that your work is remarkable, you did a fantastic job, etc., but I’m getting tired of using the same phrases over and over when reviewing your forecasts and verifications lmaoooo seriously, though, awesome job!! Also, I’m highly anticipating your Winter thoughts, as the progression of multiple factors has me a bit excited, though admittedly, I am a mere novice when it comes to seasonal outlooks haha I know last winter beat up on a lot of people, but I know you hardly ever make the same mistake twice lol

Ray: thanks for those nice comments! Believe me, I spent a ton of time analyzing, post mortem, last winter, and it turned out to be [at least from my perspective] one of those situations in which I said to myself, "Wow - I cannot believe I didn't see this." And thereafter, kicking myself for missing it...the perfectionist in me. Hindsight is 20/20, but I really think I should have had last winter, after review. But it did help significantly clarify some aspects of the soup of indicators, and further refine my methodology. So in that way, I hope you're right and that type of mistake will not be repeated!

What was it that you missed? Or was it a culmination of minor things that added up as time went on? I’ll be honest and say that I was never able to read your verification on that

More along the lines of misinterpreting a couple macro-scale factors [though this is my own personal hypothesis]. Plus, the activated MJO, which seems to be a function of SSW forcing, to put it succinctly.

Isotherm wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Isotherm wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Tom, I don’t know how many other ways I can say that your work is remarkable, you did a fantastic job, etc., but I’m getting tired of using the same phrases over and over when reviewing your forecasts and verifications lmaoooo seriously, though, awesome job!! Also, I’m highly anticipating your Winter thoughts, as the progression of multiple factors has me a bit excited, though admittedly, I am a mere novice when it comes to seasonal outlooks haha I know last winter beat up on a lot of people, but I know you hardly ever make the same mistake twice lol

Ray: thanks for those nice comments! Believe me, I spent a ton of time analyzing, post mortem, last winter, and it turned out to be [at least from my perspective] one of those situations in which I said to myself, "Wow - I cannot believe I didn't see this." And thereafter, kicking myself for missing it...the perfectionist in me. Hindsight is 20/20, but I really think I should have had last winter, after review. But it did help significantly clarify some aspects of the soup of indicators, and further refine my methodology. So in that way, I hope you're right and that type of mistake will not be repeated!

What was it that you missed? Or was it a culmination of minor things that added up as time went on? I’ll be honest and say that I was never able to read your verification on that

More along the lines of misinterpreting a couple macro-scale factors [though this is my own personal hypothesis]. Plus, the activated MJO, which seems to be a function of SSW forcing, to put it succinctly.

ahhh ok. And yeah, the MJO definitely messed up a lot of our winter. But over on “another forum” I remember discussion that the MJO pulse was the precursor to the Stratospheric evolution......is that the case, or is there just a correlation without a clear causation?