2019 TROPICAL SEASON

I'd be highly surprised if he stuck around that long along the east coast. The 18z gfs was fairly similar but after obx does head ne and develops into a huge subtropical system. Would still wreak havoc on the beaches but in that scenario that be it for us. I'm not used to not hearing Frank chime in. I miss ya guy hope things are going well in your life.

recon 973??

Radz wrote:recon 973??

wow that's a big drop over 10mb I believe since 5pm update.

By Tommorow morning 5 am update it will be 100mph

Dorian beat ya 11pm 105mph. Might be close to cat 3 by morning hh finding rapid intensification. Is he going for cat 5 eventually...lets hope not.

No. (TCLPurple slurple)

Over the last few years I’ve noticed the models grossly under call a hurricanes intensity in the long range. They give off the impression a tropical depression or storm will be the biggest threat. As we get closer, and the storm undergoes rapid intensification, they catch on that we’re dealing with a major hurricane.

Pretty unbelievable what a low shear / warm water environment can do for a tropical system. Dorian has a chance to reach Cat 5 at this point. People in Florida need to pay attention. Possibly evacuate if they’re along the east coast!

UKIE track looks like the GFS/EURO. Amazing consensus.

Frank I was just thinking the same thing. The models don’t seem to pick up well in that rapid intensification. But you can almost bet (minus shear) it will occur once these storms get to that Gulf Stream region. A couple days ago this was progged as a Cat 1 at landfall - now we’re talking 4 or 5. Wow.

Frank you are totally right like Michael and Matthew and Irma. Just crazy how bad the models are on picking this up. They are all initializing far higher pressures than Dorian truly is right now which could in fact cause a change in track.

SoulSingMG wrote:No.   (TCLPurple slurple)

what's with that one odd track. Weird obviously not go happen.

110mph now.

Folks,

Went through pages of wx information from many pros and amatys.
The OHC - ocean heat content is very high for where she will gain her strength from and it has solid depth of her projected track. The upper level and mid level wind fields and shear are attractive to this and will steer her like Sandy a sharpish left turn to an almost perpendicular direction to the coast thus enhancing the tidal surge.
The track from the maps looks to keep her just east of I 75 in Fla and then up through Ga flat water region as a Cat 1. The upper level pattern does imply this and good thing is if the models are correct she will not reemerge in the Gulf and then re-intensify and make a second strong CAT 2 or even 3 strength landfall. Time will tell but the information is serious in nature adn IF you anyone from West Palm beach region up through Melbourne - start the preps, plan and think evac - the infrastructure will be impeded to a major degree - this is what I am trying to tell my wife's aunt on the west coast directly across from WPB - yuo dont need to be in the bulls eye to feel great affects.

Oh and there are two more waves we'll need to watch in the coming weeks as the pattern looks to be conducive for development.

FROM BAM - look at this track - ala Floydish and Irene

amugs wrote:Folks,

Went through pages of wx information from many pros and amatys.
The OHC - ocean heat content is very high for where she will gain her strength from and it has solid depth of her projected track. The upper level and mid level wind fields and shear are attractive to this and will steer her like Sandy a sharpish left turn to an almost perpendicular direction to the coast thus enhancing the tidal surge.
The track from the maps looks to keep her just east of I 75 in Fla and then up through Ga flat water region as a Cat 1. The upper level pattern does imply this and good thing is if the models are correct she will not reemerge in the Gulf and then re-intensify and make a second strong CAT 2 or even 3 strength landfall. Time will tell but the information is serious in nature adn IF you anyone from West Palm beach region up through Melbourne - start the preps, plan and think evac - the infrastructure will be impeded to a major degree - this is what I am trying to tell my wife's aunt on the west coast directly across from WPB - yuo dont need to be in the bulls eye to feel great affects.

Oh and there are two more waves we'll need to watch in the coming weeks as the pattern looks to be conducive for development.

FROM BAM - look at this track - ala Floydish and Irene

Great read. I have family in West Palm that seem to think it will turn out like Matthew. Forecast is a direct hit and then ends up not making landfall and staying just off the coast with minimal impact

aiannone wrote:

amugs wrote:Folks,

Went through pages of wx information from many pros and amatys.
The OHC - ocean heat content is very high for where she will gain her strength from and it has solid depth of her projected track. The upper level and mid level wind fields and shear are attractive to this and will steer her like Sandy a sharpish left turn to an almost perpendicular direction to the coast thus enhancing the tidal surge.
The track from the maps looks to keep her just east of I 75 in Fla and then up through Ga flat water region as a Cat 1. The upper level pattern does imply this and good thing is if the models are correct she will not reemerge in the Gulf and then re-intensify and make a second strong CAT 2 or even 3 strength landfall. Time will tell but the information is serious in nature adn IF you anyone from West Palm beach region up through Melbourne - start the preps, plan and think evac - the infrastructure will be impeded to a major degree - this is what I am trying to tell my wife's aunt on the west coast directly across from WPB - yuo dont need to be in the bulls eye to feel great affects.

Oh and there are two more waves we'll need to watch in the coming weeks as the pattern looks to be conducive for development.

FROM BAM - look at this track - ala Floydish and Irene

Great read. I have family in West Palm that seem to think it will turn out like Matthew. Forecast is a direct hit and then ends up not making landfall and staying just off the coast with minimal impact

Looking over some guidance I have a feeling this will not be the case. Seems to me Dorian misses the weakness in the ridge. Al is right - this storm has potential to have a Sandy like left turn that literally forces water onto land. Maybe models in the next day or 2 back off this idea and spare Florida the worst !!

Does anyone have any insight into the possibility of impacts up this way late next week? It does kinda look like irenes track. And why do people keep saying her? Dorian is a guys name no?

Well from that map above we are in the cone but who's cone is that? Not the nhc.

Keep in mind the steering currents  that influence a weaker storm vs a stronger storm are different.   With Dorian being as strong as it is progged to be you have to look at the upperlevels as well as 500mb too.  Sum pof all vectors.  200-250mb level has an HP that wants to steer it WSW.  The winds around the edge of the retreating 500mb Burmuda HP are weaking on approach.  There are still many factors to consider here so exact track is still uncertain.

At 500mb the ULL to its SW is also tugging in it all the while

sroc4 wrote:At 500mb the ULL to its SW is also tugging in it all the while

Aned this means? Its going to go south of florida?

2pm intermediate update Dorian is a major hurricane 115mph.

wow 12z euro is bad 48 hrs he takes to go a few hundred miles and hrs 72 to 96 barely moves at all over bahamas totally wreaking havoc and flirting florida, really bad news if true.

Edit OMG he pulls a matthew!! and misses FL. Makes it to NC not having made landfall anywhere, this would be the best case senario with some impacts, can we really get a run like this for real? And looks headed OTS after that. I know its one run but thats a big change and would really change the concern level.

Wow, he gets his strongest pressure wise as he passes us and gets dangerously close to cape cod, 946mb! Look at that wind swath! Would wreak havock on the beaches up and down the EC for certain.

Latest Euro just goes to show how much uncertainty there is beyond Bahamas. Even if Euro verified it would still result in some major issues for southeastern coast because its a large intense storm that isn't moving very quickly. Still too early to say if it makes landfall or not but I think westward track into gulf is a very low probability now.

jmanley32 wrote:wow 12z euro is bad 48 hrs he takes to go a few hundred miles and hrs 72 to 96 barely moves at all over bahamas totally wreaking havoc and flirting florida, really bad news if true.

Edit OMG he pulls a matthew!! and misses FL. Makes it to NC not having made landfall anywhere, this would be the best case senario with some impacts, can we really get a run like this for real? And looks headed OTS after that. I know its one run but thats a big change and would really change the concern level.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:wow 12z euro is bad 48 hrs he takes to go a few hundred miles and hrs 72 to 96 barely moves at all over bahamas totally wreaking havoc and flirting florida, really bad news if true.

Edit OMG he pulls a matthew!! and misses FL. Makes it to NC not having made landfall anywhere, this would be the best case senario with some impacts, can we really get a run like this for real? And looks headed OTS after that. I know its one run but thats a big change and would really change the concern level.

Nearly every year we experience this back and forth.  Hopefully the slowing down and some changes in the trough north allow it to go out to sea.  As much as I love the drama and excitement of weather, unlike snow,  there is no way I want it to hit land.  Keeping fingers crossed that FL is spared. All I want is for us to get some good rain. But one good model does not put us out of danger.