Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:05 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:TD10, which was expected to become Imelda, looks to have an ominous future as it is forecast to be a hurricane near the Antilles by the weekend. The system in the Gulf just threw a curve ball and became Tropical Storm Imelda last-minute, which will bring potentially historic rainfall to SE TX. Therefore, TD10 would then be named Jerry.

yeah but no models develop this so what is the nhc going by? That looks like a normal ots spot that far north of the islands . doubt makes anywhere close to the us. But as i said I don't see anything but a remnant low on gfs euro and cm. So nhc is going against all models?

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:09 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Okay I am going to go out on a limb here and say the latest runs look scary trying to pull a sandy left hook as it reaches mid atlanic latitude but quickly gets kicked out after traveling west briefly, is it possible he doesnt get kicked out?

I think weathermaps.com has them, but I cannot access them. What models are you looking at? The GEM and NAVGEM? There are three GFS ensemble members that do it, though still well out to sea, and maybe 15 of the EURO Ensemble members (where about half of those say that Humberto should start making a loop back to the south about now lol). I think this is just the models doing their usual dance, and continue to believe that this poses no threat the U.S. Not to mention the hurricane models also continue to show no such threat. Not saying that it can’t, but given the pattern evolution I just don’t see and trust the consensus.

well I was going by the few comments about it possibly moving west. You even said 18z euro to mugs. I'm assuming that run hit the us?

by **sroc4** Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:TD10, which was expected to become Imelda, looks to have an ominous future as it is forecast to be a hurricane near the Antilles by the weekend. The system in the Gulf just threw a curve ball and became Tropical Storm Imelda last-minute, which will bring potentially historic rainfall to SE TX. Therefore, TD10 would then be named Jerry.

yeah but no models develop this so what is the nhc going by? That looks like a normal ots spot that far north of the islands . doubt makes anywhere close to the us. But as i said I don't see anything but a remnant low on gfs euro and cm. So nhc is going against all models?

All models? HWRF, a hurricane model, says otherwise. And do you really think the NHc is basing there forecast simply on weather models. Come on man.

by **rb924119** Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Okay I am going to go out on a limb here and say the latest runs look scary trying to pull a sandy left hook as it reaches mid atlanic latitude but quickly gets kicked out after traveling west briefly, is it possible he doesnt get kicked out?

I think weathermaps.com has them, but I cannot access them. What models are you looking at? The GEM and NAVGEM? There are three GFS ensemble members that do it, though still well out to sea, and maybe 15 of the EURO Ensemble members (where about half of those say that Humberto should start making a loop back to the south about now lol). I think this is just the models doing their usual dance, and continue to believe that this poses no threat the U.S. Not to mention the hurricane models also continue to show no such threat. Not saying that it can’t, but given the pattern evolution I just don’t see and trust the consensus.
well I was going by the few comments about it possibly moving west. You even said 18z euro to mugs. I'm assuming that run hit the us?

I made the “18z” comment because it’s an off-hour run that doesn’t ingest fresh upper air data, so you can see some whacky things go on with them. Same as 06z lol but the ensemble showed about 1/3 of the members bending back toward the west and U.S. mainland (at that time).

by **rb924119** Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:11 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:TD10, which was expected to become Imelda, looks to have an ominous future as it is forecast to be a hurricane near the Antilles by the weekend. The system in the Gulf just threw a curve ball and became Tropical Storm Imelda last-minute, which will bring potentially historic rainfall to SE TX. Therefore, TD10 would then be named Jerry.

yeah but no models develop this so what is the nhc going by? That looks like a normal ots spot that far north of the islands . doubt makes anywhere close to the us. But as i said I don't see anything but a remnant low on gfs euro and cm. So nhc is going against all models?

All models? HWRF, a hurricane model, says otherwise. And do you really think the NHc is basing there forecast simply on weather models. Come on man.

Sometimes I don’t know what they’re basing their forecast on, to be honest lmao told ya

by **amugs** Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:48 pm

Kelvin Wave hitting Atlantic Basin off African Coast and MDR. Gonna be a boom in the next two week from this. Do they get near landfall here in the good old USA remains to be seen.

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:37 pm

yeah your right scott but like rb said lol. But I know they do use the models and often lean towards the globals and not so much hwrf which was one i didnt look at cuz i usually consider it to be rediculous in intensity and shows some pretty wacky outcomes. Humberto is impressive, look at him and he is now a major hurricane 115mph!!

by **jmanley32** Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:25 am

Wow 11th named storm already and a new area to watch. We may hit the high end of the new prediction of 10 to 17. So Jerry is pur potential next threat in a week or so? How do those maps look with the blue. Is it still showing blue in western Atlantic.

by **sroc4** Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:26 pm

When the upper air pattern looks like this in September...........

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

You get a trop Atlantic and Trop Pac that look like this....

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Two_atl_0d0

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Two_pac_0d0

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Two_cpac_0d0

Man its active

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:41 pm

It sure is. No notable threats even in the long range. Looks like all fish storms. Boring lol

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:51 am

jmanley32 wrote:It sure is. No notable threats even in the long range. Looks like all fish storms. Boring lol

Looks like every storm stays out to sea. It is most likely a weakness caused by Humberto. Our best bet is for a homegrown storm in October.

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 29, 2019 9:30 pm

GFS fantasy land has a powerful hurricane coming out of the same area sandy and I rene did, and around October 15th, same time Sandy formed, who knows if this will even be there in a week but might be one toi watch as that area usually causes a threat along east coast, I am not saying landfall,a threat.

by **Sanchize06** Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:48 pm

Nestor quickly up to a 60mph tropical storm, could bring some showers here on Sunday. 12z models are little further north than previous runs

by **Sanchize06** Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:12 pm

0z NAM again further NW.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Namconus_ref_frzn_eus_38

by **Sanchize06** Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:28 pm

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:32 pm

3km nam and 12km ate showing 2 to 4 inches jyst miles offshore of long Island and a good portion of Jersey sees heavy rain and some gusty winds from nestor. Only a small tick north west and some of the area will have ts conditions. Maybe even a watch for coastal areas. But that remains to be seen. Lr models are sticking closed to nhc track. Guess they ate not buying into the sr.

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