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Long Range Thread 19.0

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:17 am

Rain storm today/tomorrow will produce more rain on western side with trough tilt like this.  Don't buy the western edge.



Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Rain10

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Surfac15

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Post by Grselig Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:25 am

docstox12 wrote:Sorry, CP, here is where I part ways with you.I hate all slop storms, give me pure snow or pure rain.As Sinatra sang "All or nothing at all"!
Looks like slop headed our way for Mon and Tues.UGH

Don't mind rain. Love the snow. Ice and slop ("mixed bag") is not worth it. Monday looks like a mess.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:45 am

Grselig wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Sorry, CP, here is where I part ways with you.I hate all slop storms, give me pure snow or pure rain.As Sinatra sang "All or nothing at all"!
Looks like slop headed our way for Mon and Tues.UGH

Don't mind rain.  Love the snow.  Ice and slop ("mixed bag") is not worth it.  Monday looks like a mess.
well maybe we can get a delay out of it or if ice closures. I don't wish harm to anyone but I kinda wanna see a sig ice storm.
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Post by Irish Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:02 pm

Why would anyone want to see a big ice storm?! Nothing but a recipe for damage and disaster. Like wanting a tornado.
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Post by Grselig Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Grselig wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Sorry, CP, here is where I part ways with you.I hate all slop storms, give me pure snow or pure rain.As Sinatra sang "All or nothing at all"!
Looks like slop headed our way for Mon and Tues.UGH

Don't mind rain.  Love the snow.  Ice and slop ("mixed bag") is not worth it.  Monday looks like a mess.
well maybe we can get a delay out of it or if ice closures. I don't wish harm to anyone but I kinda wanna see a sig ice storm.


I hear you. I love “unique” weather. Below zero cold. Heat. At the bottom of my heart want the hurricane and ice storm. But logicaly there is too much damage and pain. So yes, in a world where we could experience these with zero suffering and loss, it would be great. But that’s not the case so my mind wins 100% of the time
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:21 pm

12Z Euro shows 2-4" for most of area for Monday night/Tuesday morning with ice being a concern still away from coast.  It seem most models showing the WAA snows and storm going to our west.  Probably would accumulate well initially as surface temps are shown to be below freezing.  How long can we hold the mid levels below freezing?

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Euro10

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Post by hyde345 Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:29 pm

heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro shows 2-4" for most of area for Monday night/Tuesday morning with ice being a concern still away from coast.  It seem most models showing the WAA snows and storm going to our west.  Probably would accumulate well initially as surface temps are shown to be below freezing.  How long can we hold the mid levels below freezing?

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Euro10

Thanks for posting. What does it have for ZR? I'm really concerned about that in HV.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:42 pm

ZR is here ugly for interrior sections of NNJ and lHV
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 1576864800-391yqi4NF8w

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:45 pm

Close up - CP, DOC, Damien - get the firewood to heat the home cause you losin power guys with this!!

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 1576864800-g5ZUyXlmy3c

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:46 pm

Close up for snow woop woop I'll take the Irish Curse of 3" and RUN!! LOL

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 1576929600-2R5zp694dtQ

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Post by hyde345 Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:01 pm

amugs wrote:Close up - CP, DOC, Damien - get the firewood to heat the home cause you losin power guys with this!!

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 1576864800-g5ZUyXlmy3c

Thanks for posting. On that map I'm north of worst icing, not so much for the guys in Orange county.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:37 pm

amugs wrote:Close up for snow woop woop I'll take the Irish Curse of 3" and RUN!! LOL

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 1576929600-2R5zp694dtQ

lol! lol! lol! lol! lol!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:59 pm

amugs wrote:Close up - CP, DOC, Damien - get the firewood to heat the home cause you losin power guys with this!!

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 1576864800-g5ZUyXlmy3c

Mugs,
NOT GOOD if that pans out here! Like the snow map a lot better 4.5 by me.I'm ready to order, my good man! I'll take 4.5 inches of snow followed by plain rain if you please,LOL.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:32 pm

Is the snow 1st or 2nd? Either way bad recipe. Even my area sees .17 ice which is a lot. We had one ice storm a long time ago no damage but side roads were unwalkable and cars were slide into each other. It was nuts I couldn't even get to my car to try to go to work. My wife fell and hurt her wrist not severely.
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Post by hyde345 Fri Dec 13, 2019 3:35 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Is the snow 1st or 2nd? Either way bad recipe. Even my area sees .17 ice which is a lot. We had one ice storm a long time ago no damage but side roads were unwalkable and cars were slide into each other. It was nuts I couldn't even get to my car to try to go to work. My wife fell and hurt her wrist not severely.

The snow is on the front end, then mid and upper levels warm.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:50 pm

hyde345 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Is the snow 1st or 2nd? Either way bad recipe. Even my area sees .17 ice which is a lot. We had one ice storm a long time ago no damage but side roads were unwalkable and cars were slide into each other. It was nuts I couldn't even get to my car to try to go to work. My wife fell and hurt her wrist not severely.


The snow is on the front end, then mid and upper levels warm.
snow encased in ice that's the worst.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:46 pm

I think a thread sould be started for 16/17th threat, Euro is not backing down. 18z has a general 2-5 inche snow then dangerous icing for most, at hr 90 its already over 0.25 in some places and its barely started. I see a lot of delays and terrible commute Tuesday morning. If it is even possible.
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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:17 pm

All the global models today a very interesting for the 22nd. The one that skins likes. The euro was a very close Miss today love the setup. Get rid of that low pressure in Northwest Canada build that ridge out west Northward drop the shortwave near the Great Lakes Southward and will be in business
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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:48 pm

The dark Red colors over the Davis Straits look lovely and keep getting darker. Fun times ahead if that continues
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Post by amugs Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:50 pm

The blocking after this SWFE is gonna pump the NAO and AO regions 7 days to go is a lifetime for the storms. The set up at 500 is there. We also have a Clipper dropping g in possibly xmas eve/xmas day.
Anyone check out the cold behind this storm mon n tues? How about Friday through Fec 26ish? We do above freezing in many parts. Put some snow and ice on the ground and shave a few more digits off those temps.
Wednesday any snow and ice won't be melting with this
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 D8d78710

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:51 pm

Wow at this set up
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Img_2043

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:54 pm

Um dir anyone see or hear that we are third sin e 1851 on the record list for low solar behind 1901 and 1913. 1878 falls this up coming week.  Yea u know what that means??
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Huber_10
Means huge blockiness like this!!
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 31 days
2019 total: 268 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 14 Dec 2019
Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.19x1010 W Cold
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Screen10


Last edited by amugs on Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:02 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by algae888 Sat Dec 14, 2019 2:55 pm

The big difference from this December to last December is the mjo. If you recall at this time it was in high-amplitude progressing through 4 5 and 6 for a long period. This year it's basically been week and in Phase 2 or Circle of Death. This is allowing other factors to take control of our weather and why we are seeing better responses in the nao domain. I mean when was the last time we had two negative Nao episodes in the month of December if the second one comes to fruition which is looking more and more likely
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Dec 14, 2019 3:45 pm

For the 22nd storm I love were we sit right now don't want a hit 180 hours out bc it will change. Need to get northern stream to phase in and Kaboom time will tell. One thing of change is it looks like cold air isnt a issue.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:49 am

Holy smokes euro for 22nd!! Obliterated northern ct and mass with up to 30 inches!! Long ways to go and we could easily have this come our way. Though after euro fail with Tuesday's system I'm hesitant to believe that model now till 1 to max 2 days out.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:34 am

06Z GFS.  That's a beauty.  Still a little far out.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Ull12

But at least there is a signal.Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Gefs10

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:05 am

heehaw453 wrote:06Z GFS.  That's a beauty.  Still a little far out.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Ull12

But at least there is a signal.Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 9 Gefs10

I have 2 questions I wonder if someone could answer.

First, don't these pictures present a textbook set ups for all kinds of zillas?

Second, do I have this right? Is a Mugszilla a new storm classification being test run this year that means mostly winter rain with perhaps just enough frozen precip to make sure the storm is entirely annoying?

Very exciting...and the PERFECT time of the year temp-wise to be heading into (or really already in) a stormy and cold pattern. Doesn't guarantee anything...well, I take that back...it guarantees chances for big snow. In '12/13, '14/15, and '15/16 there was no real threats for snow imby (exit 80 GSP) until at least mid-late January. While '12/13 was as bad as last year overall, '14/15 and '15/16 turned out pretty good! But still, it's tough watching ALL of December and most of January totally wimp out and not even try to snow.

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