Long Range Thread 19.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
I have 2 questions I wonder if someone could answer.
First, don't these pictures present a textbook set ups for all kinds of zillas?
Second, do I have this right? Is a Mugszilla a new storm classification being test run this year that means mostly winter rain with perhaps just enough frozen precip to make sure the storm is entirely annoying?
Very exciting...and the PERFECT time of the year temp-wise to be heading into (or really already in) a stormy and cold pattern. Doesn't guarantee anything...well, I take that back...it guarantees chances for big snow. In '12/13, '14/15, and '15/16 there was no real threats for snow imby (exit 80 GSP) until at least mid-late January. While '12/13 was as bad as last year overall, '14/15 and '15/16 turned out pretty good! But still, it's tough watching ALL of December and most of January totally wimp out and not even try to snow.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Isn't that the sign of the times-most Decembers and Januaries totally wimp out. Brings tears to my eyes. 20 years ago when I moved up here, it seemed Dec 1, 5, 22 dates were reserved for snow. Now, Dec and January are in FL on vacation.
You mention GSP exit 80, and that was what my friends said of me when I first moved up here. I was so used to asking "So what exit off the parkway do you live near?". I'm not saying I could have been on Jersey Shore but the mighty GPS tells all about all.
You mention GSP exit 80, and that was what my friends said of me when I first moved up here. I was so used to asking "So what exit off the parkway do you live near?". I'm not saying I could have been on Jersey Shore but the mighty GPS tells all about all.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
SENJsnowman wrote:
I have 2 questions I wonder if someone could answer.
First, don't these pictures present a textbook set ups for all kinds of zillas?
Second, do I have this right? Is a Mugszilla a new storm classification being test run this year that means mostly winter rain with perhaps just enough frozen precip to make sure the storm is entirely annoying?
Very exciting...and the PERFECT time of the year temp-wise to be heading into (or really already in) a stormy and cold pattern. Doesn't guarantee anything...well, I take that back...it guarantees chances for big snow. In '12/13, '14/15, and '15/16 there was no real threats for snow imby (exit 80 GSP) until at least mid-late January. While '12/13 was as bad as last year overall, '14/15 and '15/16 turned out pretty good! But still, it's tough watching ALL of December and most of January totally wimp out and not even try to snow.
The GEFS MSLP is showing pressure differences relative to mean sea level pressure. It's indicative on the ensembles to show a storm signal. It was not too thrilling, but did show a storm in Atlantic. The other picture shows the operational model upper level air pattern and that was thrilling. It showed a closed off maturing storm fully captured by the northern stream. As such it'd be guided right up the coast and give us a blizzard. Chances of that right now are very low since guidance is not really suggesting it.
Here are heights and you can see clearly that the 12Z keeps both streams separate. So what occurs on the 12Z is you have a strong storm that fizzles out and meanders offshore as there's no extra juice for it and nothing to drag it up the coast.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Thanks Hee Haw. I think I got so enamored with the first pic that I paid very little attention to how sloppy the second pic looked. So, obviously, there was no way I was gonna catch your subtle reference that the 2nd pic was just not that exciting lol! sorry bout that...
But your 2nd explanation and 'exhibits' were a great follow up and cleared up a bit of confusion I didn't even know I had! And of course, now the GFS shows a total non-event. We'll see if she wobbles back. Any other models showing anything for next week?
One last thing, you guys talk about 'heights' a lot. I don't get it. I understand the idea (I think... a little...) of different weather and wind patterns at the different altitudes and lower level/mid level/upper level dynamics. But what exactly are 'heights'? Is it the direction of the wind currents at certain altitudes? We want them pointing the storm up the coast?
I know you all are busy, so any input is great appreciated...thanks!
But your 2nd explanation and 'exhibits' were a great follow up and cleared up a bit of confusion I didn't even know I had! And of course, now the GFS shows a total non-event. We'll see if she wobbles back. Any other models showing anything for next week?
One last thing, you guys talk about 'heights' a lot. I don't get it. I understand the idea (I think... a little...) of different weather and wind patterns at the different altitudes and lower level/mid level/upper level dynamics. But what exactly are 'heights'? Is it the direction of the wind currents at certain altitudes? We want them pointing the storm up the coast?
I know you all are busy, so any input is great appreciated...thanks!
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Here is a look at the upper level pattern valid Friday afternoon. Very clearly you can see a piece of northern and southern stream upper air energy with a full-latitude western ridge. The +PNA greatly increases our chance for a coastal storm developing Sunday-Monday next week. The problem I'm seeing that could prevent said storm from developing is the pieces of upper air energy, or 500mb energy, never phase. There are reasons why that could be.
1. The southern energy is dug too far south and if a phase does happen the low pressure that develops will either be to our south or out to sea
2. The northern energy is too strong. This means it does not feel the influence of the western ridge and stays in southern Canada. No phase = no storm
3. The western ridge either collapses on future model runs or tries to propagate east too soon, basically disrupting the downstream pattern and pieces of energy from phasing.
4. Similar to #1, a phase does happen, however the coastal low that develops still never makes it up the coast because the blocking to our north is too strong. We would want the phase to happen near the Gulf coast or at that longitude somewhere, because if it happens east of there the block will shun the storm east.
1. The southern energy is dug too far south and if a phase does happen the low pressure that develops will either be to our south or out to sea
2. The northern energy is too strong. This means it does not feel the influence of the western ridge and stays in southern Canada. No phase = no storm
3. The western ridge either collapses on future model runs or tries to propagate east too soon, basically disrupting the downstream pattern and pieces of energy from phasing.
4. Similar to #1, a phase does happen, however the coastal low that develops still never makes it up the coast because the blocking to our north is too strong. We would want the phase to happen near the Gulf coast or at that longitude somewhere, because if it happens east of there the block will shun the storm east.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
SENJsnowman wrote:Thanks Hee Haw. I think I got so enamored with the first pic that I paid very little attention to how sloppy the second pic looked. So, obviously, there was no way I was gonna catch your subtle reference that the 2nd pic was just not that exciting lol! sorry bout that...
But your 2nd explanation and 'exhibits' were a great follow up and cleared up a bit of confusion I didn't even know I had! And of course, now the GFS shows a total non-event. We'll see if she wobbles back. Any other models showing anything for next week?
One last thing, you guys talk about 'heights' a lot. I don't get it. I understand the idea (I think... a little...) of different weather and wind patterns at the different altitudes and lower level/mid level/upper level dynamics. But what exactly are 'heights'? Is it the direction of the wind currents at certain altitudes? We want them pointing the storm up the coast?
I know you all are busy, so any input is great appreciated...thanks!
Hope this helps a little
https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/Heights_Thicknesses/thickness_temperature.htm
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
sroc4 wrote:SENJsnowman wrote:Thanks Hee Haw. I think I got so enamored with the first pic that I paid very little attention to how sloppy the second pic looked. So, obviously, there was no way I was gonna catch your subtle reference that the 2nd pic was just not that exciting lol! sorry bout that...
But your 2nd explanation and 'exhibits' were a great follow up and cleared up a bit of confusion I didn't even know I had! And of course, now the GFS shows a total non-event. We'll see if she wobbles back. Any other models showing anything for next week?
One last thing, you guys talk about 'heights' a lot. I don't get it. I understand the idea (I think... a little...) of different weather and wind patterns at the different altitudes and lower level/mid level/upper level dynamics. But what exactly are 'heights'? Is it the direction of the wind currents at certain altitudes? We want them pointing the storm up the coast?
I know you all are busy, so any input is great appreciated...thanks!
Hope this helps a little
https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/Heights_Thicknesses/thickness_temperature.htm
Thank you sir! This looks like exactly the info I was looking for.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
I am going to guess that by the 1st, there will be significantly colder temps in place.
Anyone have a thought about this?
Anyone have a thought about this?
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
dkodgis wrote:I am going to guess that by the 1st, there will be significantly colder temps in place.
Anyone have a thought about this?
Do yuo mean Jan 1st? Well Wednesday through Thursday are gonna be very cold with an arctic shot.
Yes the EPO looks to go Negative around the 28thish and will pump send a cross polar flow through the Canadian Plains and breadbasket of America and east.
EPO Euro Ens
GEFS take it deeper in the negative territory - I likey LOL!!!
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dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Frank_Wx wrote:Here is a look at the upper level pattern valid Friday afternoon. Very clearly you can see a piece of northern and southern stream upper air energy with a full-latitude western ridge. The +PNA greatly increases our chance for a coastal storm developing Sunday-Monday next week. The problem I'm seeing that could prevent said storm from developing is the pieces of upper air energy, or 500mb energy, never phase. There are reasons why that could be.
1. The southern energy is dug too far south and if a phase does happen the low pressure that develops will either be to our south or out to sea
2. The northern energy is too strong. This means it does not feel the influence of the western ridge and stays in southern Canada. No phase = no storm
3. The western ridge either collapses on future model runs or tries to propagate east too soon, basically disrupting the downstream pattern and pieces of energy from phasing.
4. Similar to #1, a phase does happen, however the coastal low that develops still never makes it up the coast because the blocking to our north is too strong. We would want the phase to happen near the Gulf coast or at that longitude somewhere, because if it happens east of there the block will shun the storm east.
Either #1 or #2 are going to play out, and unfortunately, neither would mean a coastal storm hitting our area. Still some time for this one but odds greatly diminished. The Pacific upper level pattern not conducive for east coast snowstorms right now.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Snow squalls possible tomorrow. Would be great if they could drop a quick 1/2" for someone.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Timing is everything. It will be quite cold tomorrow night around here-around 10 degrees. Squalls would hit the ground and glass.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Squalls are fun looking forward to it - need to have the phone and camera ready to catch these.
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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Yeah I caught the one last year, good lord 10 min of pure whiteout and wind like I never seen, now if it could only do that for many hours. That squall also got us out of work early, I think or director may take from our spring break if we keep having all this loss of money. When the kids arent there the school doesnt get paid. It is fee for service.amugs wrote:Squalls are fun looking forward to it - need to have the phone and camera ready to catch these.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
heehaw453 wrote:Snow squalls possible tomorrow. Would be great if they could drop a quick 1/2" for someone.
Classic set up for LI Sound effect snow actually
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
sroc4 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:Snow squalls possible tomorrow. Would be great if they could drop a quick 1/2" for someone.
Classic set up for LI Sound effect snow actually
That would be cool for you guys. I've always wondered why that doesn't happen more often on LI. It seems like a decent setup with the sound and all.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Why are we talking about snow squalls happening tomorrow in the long range thread? Why are the mods not doing their jobs? Why is Scott blatantly letting this happen as the 2nd admin?
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Temps on X-Mas Eve
Christmas Day
5-10 degrees above normal
Christmas Day
5-10 degrees above normal
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Look at the bright side at least it won’t as warm in 2015 we all remember when Christmas Eve we had a high of 75 * and a low of 64 *Frank_Wx wrote:Temps on X-Mas Eve
Christmas Day
5-10 degrees above normal
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Not a shock, temps have been on a rollercoaster. November the past 2 years seems to be colder than December. It was an active month but so much rain that it became disappointing as well.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Frank_Wx wrote:Why are we talking about snow squalls happening tomorrow in the long range thread? Why are the mods not doing their jobs? Why is Scott blatantly letting this happen as the 2nd admin?
My bad my bad. You are right.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
sroc4 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Why are we talking about snow squalls happening tomorrow in the long range thread? Why are the mods not doing their jobs? Why is Scott blatantly letting this happen as the 2nd admin?
My bad my bad. You are right.
HILARIOUS Doc!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Yep, Christmas 2015 was a record warm one. I am sure we all remember what happened just 4 weeks later, we all got buried in some 2 feet of snow! Be patient!
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
4 weeks? lol that's another month of winter gone.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Some noteworthy facts about the long range right now:
1. I recall reading some winter outlooks many suspected ENSO to be Modoki style El Nino. However, the greatest activity has been in the western and eastern sections of the equatorial Pacific. The region between the dateline and 120W has been devoid of convection.
2. Although the long range thru Christmas looks bleak the warm pool in the northern Pacific remains. This tells me regardless what happens the rest of this month, we should see a re-load of the trough settling over the eastern U.S. after the New Year.
3. This is supported by the tropical forcing that is forecasted to occur on Christmas. It's possible we see a re-load prior to the New Year or right around it.
4. The MJO is also seeing this wave - showing it exiting the COD into phase 7 end of month
5. The Stratosphere will undergo major changes, possibly resulting in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.
I am more confident in the tropical forcing / Pacific warm pool bringing back the winter pattern for eastern CONUS than I am for any SSWE at the moment. Until then, do not expect much activity.
1. I recall reading some winter outlooks many suspected ENSO to be Modoki style El Nino. However, the greatest activity has been in the western and eastern sections of the equatorial Pacific. The region between the dateline and 120W has been devoid of convection.
2. Although the long range thru Christmas looks bleak the warm pool in the northern Pacific remains. This tells me regardless what happens the rest of this month, we should see a re-load of the trough settling over the eastern U.S. after the New Year.
3. This is supported by the tropical forcing that is forecasted to occur on Christmas. It's possible we see a re-load prior to the New Year or right around it.
4. The MJO is also seeing this wave - showing it exiting the COD into phase 7 end of month
5. The Stratosphere will undergo major changes, possibly resulting in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.
I am more confident in the tropical forcing / Pacific warm pool bringing back the winter pattern for eastern CONUS than I am for any SSWE at the moment. Until then, do not expect much activity.
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