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Long Range Thread 19.0

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:34 am

06Z GFS.  That's a beauty.  Still a little far out.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Ull12

But at least there is a signal.2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Gefs10

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:05 am

heehaw453 wrote:06Z GFS.  That's a beauty.  Still a little far out.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Ull12

But at least there is a signal.2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Gefs10

I have 2 questions I wonder if someone could answer.

First, don't these pictures present a textbook set ups for all kinds of zillas?

Second, do I have this right? Is a Mugszilla a new storm classification being test run this year that means mostly winter rain with perhaps just enough frozen precip to make sure the storm is entirely annoying?

Very exciting...and the PERFECT time of the year temp-wise to be heading into (or really already in) a stormy and cold pattern. Doesn't guarantee anything...well, I take that back...it guarantees chances for big snow. In '12/13, '14/15, and '15/16 there was no real threats for snow imby (exit 80 GSP) until at least mid-late January. While '12/13 was as bad as last year overall, '14/15 and '15/16 turned out pretty good! But still, it's tough watching ALL of December and most of January totally wimp out and not even try to snow.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:52 am

Isn't that the sign of the times-most Decembers and Januaries totally wimp out. Brings tears to my eyes. 20 years ago when I moved up here, it seemed Dec 1, 5, 22 dates were reserved for snow. Now, Dec and January are in FL on vacation.

You mention GSP exit 80, and that was what my friends said of me when I first moved up here. I was so used to asking "So what exit off the parkway do you live near?". I'm not saying I could have been on Jersey Shore but the mighty GPS tells all about all. Very Happy
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 15, 2019 12:57 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:06Z GFS.  That's a beauty.  Still a little far out.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Ull12

But at least there is a signal.2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Gefs10

I have 2 questions I wonder if someone could answer.

First, don't these pictures present a textbook set ups for all kinds of zillas?

Second, do I have this right? Is a Mugszilla a new storm classification being test run this year that means mostly winter rain with perhaps just enough frozen precip to make sure the storm is entirely annoying?

Very exciting...and the PERFECT time of the year temp-wise to be heading into (or really already in) a stormy and cold pattern. Doesn't guarantee anything...well, I take that back...it guarantees chances for big snow. In '12/13, '14/15, and '15/16 there was no real threats for snow imby (exit 80 GSP) until at least mid-late January. While '12/13 was as bad as last year overall, '14/15 and '15/16 turned out pretty good! But still, it's tough watching ALL of December and most of January totally wimp out and not even try to snow.

The GEFS MSLP is showing pressure differences relative to mean sea level pressure. It's indicative on the ensembles to show a storm signal. It was not too thrilling, but did show a storm in Atlantic.  The other picture shows the operational model upper level air pattern and that was thrilling.  It showed a closed off maturing storm fully captured by the northern stream.  As such it'd be guided right up the coast and give us a blizzard.  Chances of that right now are very low since guidance is not really suggesting it.

Here are heights and you can see clearly that the 12Z keeps both streams separate. So what occurs on the 12Z is you have a strong storm that fizzles out and meanders offshore as there's no extra juice for it and nothing to drag it up the coast.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Captur10
2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Notcap10

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:11 am

Thanks Hee Haw. I think I got so enamored with the first pic that I paid very little attention to how sloppy the second pic looked. So, obviously, there was no way I was gonna catch your subtle reference that the 2nd pic was just not that exciting lol!  sorry bout that...

But your 2nd explanation and 'exhibits' were a great follow up and cleared up a bit of confusion I didn't even know I had! And of course, now the GFS shows a  total non-event. We'll see if she wobbles back. Any other models showing anything for next week?

One last thing, you guys talk about 'heights' a lot. I don't get it. I understand the idea (I think... a little...) of different weather and wind patterns at the different altitudes and lower level/mid level/upper level dynamics. But what exactly are 'heights'? Is it the direction of the wind currents at certain altitudes? We want them pointing the storm up the coast?

I know you all are busy, so any input is great appreciated...thanks!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:36 am

Here is a look at the upper level pattern valid Friday afternoon. Very clearly you can see a piece of northern and southern stream upper air energy with a full-latitude western ridge. The +PNA greatly increases our chance for a coastal storm developing Sunday-Monday next week. The problem I'm seeing that could prevent said storm from developing is the pieces of upper air energy, or 500mb energy, never phase. There are reasons why that could be.

1. The southern energy is dug too far south and if a phase does happen the low pressure that develops will either be to our south or out to sea

2. The northern energy is too strong. This means it does not feel the influence of the western ridge and stays in southern Canada. No phase = no storm

3. The western ridge either collapses on future model runs or tries to propagate east too soon, basically disrupting the downstream pattern and pieces of energy from phasing.

4. Similar to #1, a phase does happen, however the coastal low that develops still never makes it up the coast because the blocking to our north is too strong. We would want the phase to happen near the Gulf coast or at that longitude somewhere, because if it happens east of there the block will shun the storm east.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Capture


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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:37 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Thanks Hee Haw. I think I got so enamored with the first pic that I paid very little attention to how sloppy the second pic looked. So, obviously, there was no way I was gonna catch your subtle reference that the 2nd pic was just not that exciting lol!  sorry bout that...

But your 2nd explanation and 'exhibits' were a great follow up and cleared up a bit of confusion I didn't even know I had! And of course, now the GFS shows a  total non-event. We'll see if she wobbles back. Any other models showing anything for next week?

One last thing, you guys talk about 'heights' a lot. I don't get it. I understand the idea (I think... a little...) of different weather and wind patterns at the different altitudes and lower level/mid level/upper level dynamics. But what exactly are 'heights'? Is it the direction of the wind currents at certain altitudes? We want them pointing the storm up the coast?

I know you all are busy, so any input is great appreciated...thanks!

Hope this helps a little

https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/Heights_Thicknesses/thickness_temperature.htm

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:52 am

sroc4 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Thanks Hee Haw. I think I got so enamored with the first pic that I paid very little attention to how sloppy the second pic looked. So, obviously, there was no way I was gonna catch your subtle reference that the 2nd pic was just not that exciting lol!  sorry bout that...

But your 2nd explanation and 'exhibits' were a great follow up and cleared up a bit of confusion I didn't even know I had! And of course, now the GFS shows a  total non-event. We'll see if she wobbles back. Any other models showing anything for next week?

One last thing, you guys talk about 'heights' a lot. I don't get it. I understand the idea (I think... a little...) of different weather and wind patterns at the different altitudes and lower level/mid level/upper level dynamics. But what exactly are 'heights'? Is it the direction of the wind currents at certain altitudes? We want them pointing the storm up the coast?

I know you all are busy, so any input is great appreciated...thanks!

Hope this helps a little

https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/Heights_Thicknesses/thickness_temperature.htm

Thank you sir! This looks like exactly the info I was looking for.

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Post by dkodgis Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:45 am

I am going to guess that by the 1st, there will be significantly colder temps in place.

Anyone have a thought about this?
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Post by amugs Mon Dec 16, 2019 12:58 pm

dkodgis wrote:I am going to guess that by the 1st, there will be significantly colder temps in place.

Anyone have a thought about this?

Do yuo mean Jan 1st? Well Wednesday through Thursday are gonna be very cold with an arctic shot.
Yes the EPO looks to go Negative around the 28thish and will pump send a cross polar flow through the Canadian Plains and breadbasket of America and east.


EPO Euro Ens
2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 1576454400-vzPOVOmWbDY_all

GEFS take it deeper in the negative territory - I likey LOL!!!
2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 1576476000-iXJCLhCmaQ0

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Post by dkodgis Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:00 pm

Well, there you go. Thanks, Mugs. Happy birthday tomorrow
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:31 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Here is a look at the upper level pattern valid Friday afternoon. Very clearly you can see a piece of northern and southern stream upper air energy with a full-latitude western ridge. The +PNA greatly increases our chance for a coastal storm developing Sunday-Monday next week. The problem I'm seeing that could prevent said storm from developing is the pieces of upper air energy, or 500mb energy, never phase. There are reasons why that could be.

1. The southern energy is dug too far south and if a phase does happen the low pressure that develops will either be to our south or out to sea

2. The northern energy is too strong. This means it does not feel the influence of the western ridge and stays in southern Canada. No phase = no storm

3. The western ridge either collapses on future model runs or tries to propagate east too soon, basically disrupting the downstream pattern and pieces of energy from phasing.

4. Similar to #1, a phase does happen, however the coastal low that develops still never makes it up the coast because the blocking to our north is too strong. We would want the phase to happen near the Gulf coast or at that longitude somewhere, because if it happens east of there the block will shun the storm east.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Capture


Either #1 or #2 are going to play out, and unfortunately, neither would mean a coastal storm hitting our area. Still some time for this one but odds greatly diminished. The Pacific upper level pattern not conducive for east coast snowstorms right now.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:53 am

Snow squalls possible tomorrow. Would be great if they could drop a quick 1/2" for someone.

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Post by dkodgis Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:39 am

Timing is everything. It will be quite cold tomorrow night around here-around 10 degrees. Squalls would hit the ground and glass.
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:49 am

Squalls are fun looking forward to it - need to have the phone and camera ready to catch these.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:20 pm

amugs wrote:Squalls are fun looking forward to it - need to have the phone and camera ready to catch these.
Yeah I caught the one last year, good lord 10 min of pure whiteout and wind like I never seen, now if it could only do that for many hours. That squall also got us out of work early, I think or director may take from our spring break if we keep having all this loss of money. When the kids arent there the school doesnt get paid. It is fee for service.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:06 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Snow squalls possible tomorrow.  Would be great if they could drop a quick 1/2" for someone.

Classic set up for LI Sound effect snow actually

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:20 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Snow squalls possible tomorrow.  Would be great if they could drop a quick 1/2" for someone.

Classic set up for LI Sound effect snow actually

That would be cool for you guys. I've always wondered why that doesn't happen more often on LI. It seems like a decent setup with the sound and all.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:27 pm

Why are we talking about snow squalls happening tomorrow in the long range thread? Why are the mods not doing their jobs? Why is Scott blatantly letting this happen as the 2nd admin?























told ya

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:28 pm

Temps on X-Mas Eve

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Gfs_T2m_neus_30

Christmas Day

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Gfs_T2m_neus_34

5-10 degrees above normal

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Gfs_T2ma_neus_34

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Post by frank 638 Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Temps on X-Mas Eve

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Gfs_T2m_neus_30

Christmas Day

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Gfs_T2m_neus_34

5-10 degrees above normal

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Gfs_T2ma_neus_34
Look at the bright side at least it won’t as warm in 2015 we all remember when Christmas Eve we had a high of 75 * and a low of 64 *

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Post by HectorO Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:09 pm

Not a shock, temps have been on a rollercoaster. November the past 2 years seems to be colder than December. It was an active month but so much rain that it became disappointing as well.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:07 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Why are we talking about snow squalls happening tomorrow in the long range thread? Why are the mods not doing their jobs? Why is Scott blatantly letting this happen as the 2nd admin?























told ya

My bad my bad. You are right.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Tenor

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Post by docstox12 Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Why are we talking about snow squalls happening tomorrow in the long range thread? Why are the mods not doing their jobs? Why is Scott blatantly letting this happen as the 2nd admin?























told ya

My bad my bad. You are right.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Tenor


lol! lol! lol! lol! lol! HILARIOUS Doc!
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Post by lja Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:34 pm

Yep, Christmas 2015 was a record warm one. I am sure we all remember what happened just 4 weeks later, we all got buried in some 2 feet of snow! Be patient!

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Post by HectorO Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:56 pm

4 weeks? lol that's another month of winter gone.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:47 am

Some noteworthy facts about the long range right now:

1. I recall reading some winter outlooks many suspected ENSO to be Modoki style El Nino. However, the greatest activity has been in the western and eastern sections of the equatorial Pacific. The region between the dateline and 120W has been devoid of convection.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 R.global.anom.30.5S-5N

2. Although the long range thru Christmas looks bleak the warm pool in the northern Pacific remains. This tells me regardless what happens the rest of this month, we should see a re-load of the trough settling over the eastern U.S. after the New Year.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

3. This is supported by the tropical forcing that is forecasted to occur on Christmas. It's possible we see a re-load prior to the New Year or right around it.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 U.anom.30.5S-5N

4. The MJO is also seeing this wave - showing it exiting the COD into phase 7 end of month

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member

5. The Stratosphere will undergo major changes, possibly resulting in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.

2 - Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 10 Image.png.04cc43c7611419e865a4acfc63409f1a

I am more confident in the tropical forcing / Pacific warm pool bringing back the winter pattern for eastern CONUS than I am for any SSWE at the moment. Until then, do not expect much activity.

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