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Long Range Thread 19.0

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Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:31 pm

@dkodgis wrote:If we go another 2-3 winters, then this is starting to become the new reality/weather pattern, yes?

While another two or three winters like the last two certainly would give me night terrors, I wouldn't call anything the new reality after a few winters. I well remember the late 1980s into the beginning of the 1990s a stretch of at least four, maybe five or six, winters where I couldn't buy a few inches of snow. Lots of warmth, rain and only the occasional nuisance snowstorm. During that stretch we had maybe one (two at most) storms that delivered 6" or more of snow. A lot of people said "Winter has changed, it just doesn't snow anymore." Then, like clockwork in our atmosphere's ever-cyclical pattern, the mid-1990's delivered a stretch of cold snowy winters, followed by another round of snowy winters from about 2003-2006 and yet another from 2009-2015 (minus one clunker in there around 2012).  Frankly after the good run we had in the first half of last decade, I'm not sure we should be surprised to have had a few disappointing winters now.

And remember, it is still early. Sometimes we just get a lot more snow in February/March than December/January (sorry Mikey P Wink )
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:14 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@dkodgis wrote:If we go another 2-3 winters, then this is starting to become the new reality/weather pattern, yes?

While another two or three winters like the last two certainly would give me night terrors, I wouldn't call anything the new reality after a few winters. I well remember the late 1980s into the beginning of the 1990s a stretch of at least four, maybe five or six, winters where I couldn't buy a few inches of snow. Lots of warmth, rain and only the occasional nuisance snowstorm. During that stretch we had maybe one (two at most) storms that delivered 6" or more of snow. A lot of people said "Winter has changed, it just doesn't snow anymore." Then, like clockwork in our atmosphere's ever-cyclical pattern, the mid-1990's delivered a stretch of cold snowy winters, followed by another round of snowy winters from about 2003-2006 and yet another from 2009-2015 (minus one clunker in there around 2012).  Frankly after the good run we had in the first half of last decade, I'm not sure we should be surprised to have had a few disappointing winters now.

And remember, it is still early. Sometimes we just get a lot more snow in February/March than December/January (sorry Mikey P Wink )

Good post and I agree

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Post by dkodgis on Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:18 pm

@Billg315, thank you. Put that way, I see what you mean.
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:23 pm

March 2018 we had 50 inches of snow up in the HV.March has been a big snow producer recently.Way, way too early to count this winter out, it's only January 6th.We are heading into the heart of big snow time, mid January to the end of February.Hold fast NJ Strong Crew!!!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:25 pm

@dkodgis wrote:@Billg315, thank you. Put that way, I see what you mean.

I activated the ability to tag members but for whatever reason it does not work for me :/

Glad to see it works for you though

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:35 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@dkodgis wrote:If we go another 2-3 winters, then this is starting to become the new reality/weather pattern, yes?

While another two or three winters like the last two certainly would give me night terrors, I wouldn't call anything the new reality after a few winters. I well remember the late 1980s into the beginning of the 1990s a stretch of at least four, maybe five or six, winters where I couldn't buy a few inches of snow. Lots of warmth, rain and only the occasional nuisance snowstorm. During that stretch we had maybe one (two at most) storms that delivered 6" or more of snow. A lot of people said "Winter has changed, it just doesn't snow anymore." Then, like clockwork in our atmosphere's ever-cyclical pattern, the mid-1990's delivered a stretch of cold snowy winters, followed by another round of snowy winters from about 2003-2006 and yet another from 2009-2015 (minus one clunker in there around 2012).  Frankly after the good run we had in the first half of last decade, I'm not sure we should be surprised to have had a few disappointing winters now.

And remember, it is still early. Sometimes we just get a lot more snow in February/March than December/January (sorry Mikey P Wink )
I lived through the 1980's as well. For snow lovers it was hell on earth. What drives me crazy is when we have a slow start to winter and all these climate change enthusiasts proclaim that this is how winter seasons will be from here on out. What BS! We just finished up a decade with the most total snowfall for NYC in recorded history! We were due for a couple of clunkers. Weather runs in cycles. If this winter ends up in the crapper, of course I'll be frustrated but by no means does it ensure that it will repeat the following year.
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:42 pm

HAVE NO FEAR MY LITTLE DESCIPLES THE FOREIGNERS ARE HERE

12z EPS says the SWEDES AND GRETA ARE GONNA HELP US

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_9456800(1)



OH CANADA - PUSHING THE RIDGE INTO EASTERN GREENLAND AND THE RIDGE SAYS AHOY MATES AS IT COMES ASHORE

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Cmc_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_9456800(1)

COURTESY OF JB AND THE WXBELL SITE

I lived through the 70's and 80's beginning of 70's was cold n dry and teh second half was a bangor 76-77, 77-78 and then 78-79 (okay). 83 - the greatest turn around for a storm I have seen in my lifteime wnet for 1-3 " at 8:30 from....Mr. G to an all out blizzard at 1:30PM, 83-84 not bad, 84-85 was a good winter overall late Janish through late Feb ruled with cold n snowstorms, 85-86 meh, 86-87 a couple of good storms, 88 had a high end secs early Jan and a few other storms, Enough of the memory lane and Nutley so true, just like teh wildfires in Aussie land - all due to GW - lets not start but its a climate pattern variability, and....a majority were started by man.

Lets hope what I have posted comes to fruition. I see the cold air press setting up a nice gradient. Time will tell.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:58 am

The GEFS continue advertising a pattern change taking place after January 20th. These pattern changes always take time. The first step is getting the Pacific ridge to move into the EPO/PNA region. The second step is getting the AO/NAO regions to go negative. GEFS show this, but it will take time for the trough to settle in over the east. Snow chances return 4th week of January but I am thinking any 'big' snows will wait until February.

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:32 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS continue advertising a pattern change taking place after January 20th. These pattern changes always take time. The first step is getting the Pacific ridge to move into the EPO/PNA region. The second step is getting the AO/NAO regions to go negative. GEFS show this, but it will take time for the trough to settle in over the east. Snow chances return 4th week of January but I am thinking any 'big' snows will wait until February.
Yes Frank the MJO plots are much improved. My concerns of the MJO falling into the COD then returning to the 4-5 phase later this month are less likely to occur. Looks like instead it traverses into phase 8 at months end or early February. Hope the good trends continue and we rock in February and March.
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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:23 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS continue advertising a pattern change taking place after January 20th. These pattern changes always take time. The first step is getting the Pacific ridge to move into the EPO/PNA region. The second step is getting the AO/NAO regions to go negative. GEFS show this, but it will take time for the trough to settle in over the east. Snow chances return 4th week of January but I am thinking any 'big' snows will wait until February.
Yes Frank the MJO plots are much improved. My concerns of the MJO falling into the COD then returning to the 4-5 phase later this month are less likely to occur. Looks like instead it traverses into phase 8 at months end or early February. Hope the good trends continue and we rock in February and March.

You asked my man Nutley and it is delivered - MJO into favorable phases.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 20200108_102612.jpg.85ec2d820cd843ad50a8662090b5c7c3

From PB on 33&rain board - love the depiction and I said about the MJO that the CFS was doing and has been doing a great job handling the MJO plots. Also, we are seeing teh wave dying in the NW AUSSIE land region in time and teh convection flaring up in phases 7 , 8 and then moving east
GFS MJO PLOT
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Ensplume_small.gif.5f6d66d1c38ee8f245abaa089cbe3bd3
EPS as I posted above was showing the way to the pattern change. There is tremendous cold air in CANADA and on our side of teh globe and once we got into phase 7 the Trough starts to eject out west and this tremendously dense cold air will undercut the ridge and start to beat it back. Looks like a nice thermal gradient IF it sets up advantageously for us.
GEFS (remember they are on the old platform from teh 486 computer LOL!)
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 2FA57803-F24F-4D58-A857-A7A44CF58BCC.png.fdd697ec9208f3322f6b528363784f50
Here the deep cold air from the TPV ejecting out
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Gfs_T2m_us_30l
Watch for thw wild weather swing starting this weekend (Sunday - in a 6 hour time frame peeps will go from t-shirts to winter jackets) all due to low solar and the meridional flow of the jet.

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Post by Grselig on Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:49 am

@amugs wrote:
@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS continue advertising a pattern change taking place after January 20th. These pattern changes always take time. The first step is getting the Pacific ridge to move into the EPO/PNA region. The second step is getting the AO/NAO regions to go negative. GEFS show this, but it will take time for the trough to settle in over the east. Snow chances return 4th week of January but I am thinking any 'big' snows will wait until February.
Yes Frank the MJO plots are much improved. My concerns of the MJO falling into the COD then returning to the 4-5 phase later this month are less likely to occur. Looks like instead it traverses into phase 8 at months end or early February. Hope the good trends continue and we rock in February and March.

You asked my man Nutley and it is delivered - MJO into favorable phases.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 20200108_102612.jpg.85ec2d820cd843ad50a8662090b5c7c3

From PB on 33&rain board - love the depiction and I said about the MJO that the CFS was doing and has been doing a great job handling the MJO plots. Also, we are seeing teh wave dying in the NW AUSSIE land region in time and teh convection flaring up in phases 7 , 8 and then moving east
GFS MJO PLOT
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Ensplume_small.gif.5f6d66d1c38ee8f245abaa089cbe3bd3
EPS as I posted above was showing the way to the pattern change. There is tremendous cold air in CANADA and on our side of teh globe and once we got into phase 7 the Trough starts to eject out west and this tremendously dense cold air will undercut the ridge and start to beat it back. Looks like a nice thermal gradient IF it sets up advantageously for us.
GEFS (remember they are on the old platform from teh 486 computer LOL!)
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 2FA57803-F24F-4D58-A857-A7A44CF58BCC.png.fdd697ec9208f3322f6b528363784f50
Here the deep cold air from the TPV ejecting out
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Gfs_T2m_us_30l
Watch for thw wild weather swing starting this weekend (Sunday - in a 6 hour time frame peeps will go from t-shirts to winter jackets) all due to low solar and the meridional flow of the jet.

Excellent news! I don't mind the torch, or even the horrific start to winter, but lets get some white gold!
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Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:51 pm

Nice changes showing up on the long-range guidance including the mjo. We have about another week or so of this horrible pattern but the first cold wave comes in next Thursday as a piece of the western trough breaks off. It only gets better after that with a negative EPO a building PNA and a much more favorable Atlantic mjo now looks like it will get into the colder phases 7 and 8 at least and maybe one and two but still too far out to be certain on that
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Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:54 pm

I should add that phase 7 although not favorable in December for the east coast is much more favorable in January could be some fun times ahead maybe a Redux of 2014/2015
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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:21 pm

IF this were to ocme to fruition then SYO will come out of sector 13 and house arrest LOL!!  My namesake, AL squared, look athe EPO negative pump and the ridge bridge over the poles with a Scandinavian block - these usually lasts from what history shows for a few weeks to longer

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 6C8220BA-CC85-417F-A7DC-2512C34BCCD1.jpeg.b6a56cc5007a2b3b6b7fca7d7b5422ef

Bridge over Snowy Waters?
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 F61C8D8E-22E7-4C9A-87A1-1305BF0848CF.jpeg.edf271ae387a07f6c2f72d4a88faecc0
And torch periods usually in short term have a snap back as big momma wants to equalize things out.

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Post by docstox12 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:13 am

GOOD news from the long term crew here! Lee Goldberg mentioned SUSTAINED bitter cold beginning at the end of next week.Let's get this "January thaw" out of the way and get this winter snow party started!!!
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:40 am

i was concerned before that this PAC pattern would lock in for much longer duration.  Ensemble guidance continues to suggest EPO- which helps drive the cold air east of the Continental Divide and then after could get a more favorable PNA+.  The PNA+ and a muted SE Atlantic ridge would make it much less likely for storms to cut to our west.

High latitude Atlantic blocking is very difficult to forecast, but we had some of it already in December and that could pop up at any time.

I would expect on or after 1/17 it gets colder for a longer duration.  The 500mb pattern I'm not a buyer in the for the long term until i see it consistently shown into next week on ensembles.  

If things trend like this however, I don't think we will be waiting until February to see a significant winter storm here and a wide spread one at that.  

Time will tell and we need to see what happens over this next week.

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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:27 am

Cold Air Push and we see the PV elongation or a possible split by models which could bring major cold to our region.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Gfs_deterministic_nhemi_z30_anom_8560400

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Gfs_deterministic_nhemi_z30_anom_9932000

Looking at the flip to winter by the 20thish

IF the control is even half right this is an elastic band snap back I was referring to in above posts that happen. 2-14-15 cold?? could be. EPO looks to go Negative which is where the Polar Vortext is resting and once is gets pushed WOW that cold is really cold.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 2085511228_ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom_5day-9802400CONTROL.png.d945cb2415ae7683f45b5a2494f193b8
So we lost Dec 22 to Jan 17thish for  this winter - stinks but can go from then until?? End of Feb?? Mid March? Maybe....
Jim Witt calling for a April 1982 Storm Redux - that woudl be crushing!!
Warm interlude and then we get the step down and progress into a more favorable pattern.

Read from John Casey, David Dubyne and Klhara Zhardokova (all scientists and climatologists etc) that the lag time with low solar is 9 months to 2 years as well as volcanic affects from moderate Volcanic explosions - we have entered that time frames beginning. Should be interesting to see how this plays out......

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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:51 pm

Okay I know yuo may be saying well its going to be 60 and spring like (with rain) this weekend - all fine and Jim Dandy butthere is A LOT of WINTER days left!
The MJO phase is going into 7 as the wave propogates/moves into this phase.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

CAN we get into the mythical 8 phase the death of winters grip?? As the CFS which again has been and scoring very well with teh MJO RIMM plots

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 CFSO_phase_full

And can we get to the higher 2-3 SD amplitude as the 2 yellow lines are showing in that phase? If so then buckle up - time will tell.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 CFSO_phase_full

PHASE 7
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Combined_image
Though it may look warm on here it is not for January - can't find just Jan phase 7 temp chart

Look at this map - the orangy colors say SE Ridge and Math 23x40000 is saying warmth.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 EN2kYj_XkAAWo4-?format=png&name=medium

NOT SO FAST - look ta the source of the cold air and how the high pressures align from the Alaska region where teh Polar Vortex is sitting and just drills this into the middle of teh country and bleeds it east. It beats back SE with a billy club or a Louisville Slugger that the great Bambino once used!!

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 EN2kY1eWsAYWDIS?format=png&name=medium

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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:56 pm

This would be the snap back I am referring to.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Cfs_da10

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Conus_10


Look at this cold push
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Cfs_da10

May reverse some of the absurdly positive departures after this weekend. Maybe not all the way to N but cut it by a good margin.
Build the cold air and the white gold will follow.
Old Southwr folklore, winter thunderstorms means witjin 10 days after there will be a snowstorm.
Look for it!!

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Post by algae888 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:19 am

Looks like our first threat with the upcoming pattern change is going to be Martin Luther King weekend. Both the GFS and Euro show a cutter with a front end thump at the moment but there ensembles are much further south. after that the pattern looks fantastic with mjo heading towards phase 8
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:06 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS continue advertising a pattern change taking place after January 20th. These pattern changes always take time. The first step is getting the Pacific ridge to move into the EPO/PNA region. The second step is getting the AO/NAO regions to go negative. GEFS show this, but it will take time for the trough to settle in over the east. Snow chances return 4th week of January but I am thinking any 'big' snows will wait until February.

Days later and guidance insists a pattern change will occur near January 20th. I still believe this will be a step-down process that will take time to evolve, however, winter storm threats are prevalent on models for that week. I am worried the pattern change shown is not one that would take us through the rest of this winter. It could be a temporary change that lasts 10-15 days. However, let's not worry about that now and actually get ourselves some snowy weather for once!

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:17 am

Here the MJO as guidance is seeing this now take shape:
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 CFSO_phase_full

Result
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 1579500000-xgRFy0RrmdM


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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:54 am

This is just for giggles ATTM, but 12Z GFS solution would be legit threat.

You have 50/50 low acting as a block cutting low pressure and a decent antecedent air mass to start with.  How much can the low be shunted south would determine how much snow vs ice.

Nice CAD signature on this too indicative of low level cold air.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Temps18

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 14 Gfs13

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:21 pm

Buckle up folks - reading that the Roundy plots are taking the MJO waves into phases 8 and through 2 by later February. JB honking on a flip like 2002 and 1978 talking about a 30 -45 day winter like period.
GFS is now honking on a NAO that would build a bridge at tits end over teh top and would make this board and most weenies very happy as this would be a 1978,2002 2105 type of 2nd half.
Don't Sleep on the threat next weekend.


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:45 pm

@algae888 wrote:Looks like our first threat with the upcoming pattern change is going to be Martin Luther King weekend. Both the GFS and Euro show a cutter with a front end thump at the moment but there ensembles are much further south. after that the pattern looks fantastic with mjo heading towards phase 8

Ha! Of course that would be the day of the meetup! But still need more sustained cold and a longer term pattern change. The yoyo temps so far are killing us!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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