Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

[amugs]

Buckle up folks - reading that the Roundy plots are taking the MJO waves into phases 8 and through 2 by later February. JB honking on a flip like 2002 and 1978 talking about a 30 -45 day winter like period.
GFS is now honking on a NAO that would build a bridge at tits end over teh top and would make this board and most weenies very happy as this would be a 1978,2002 2105 type of 2nd half.
Don't Sleep on the threat next weekend.

[Dunnzoo]

Looks like our first threat with the upcoming pattern change is going to be Martin Luther King weekend. Both the GFS and Euro show a cutter with a front end thump at the moment but there ensembles are much further south. after that the pattern looks fantastic with mjo heading towards phase 8

Ha! Of course that would be the day of the meetup! But still need more sustained cold and a longer term pattern change. The yoyo temps so far are killing us!

[sroc4]

Buckle up folks - reading that the Roundy plots are taking the MJO waves into phases 8 and through 2 by later February. JB honking on a flip like 2002 and 1978 talking about a 30 -45 day winter like period.
GFS is now honking on a NAO that would build a bridge at tits end over teh top and would make this board and most weenies very happy as this would be a 1978,2002 2105 type of 2nd half.
Don't Sleep on the threat next weekend.

Still trying to figure out the details on this one..lol

[nutleyblizzard]

The Euro has a snowstorm for next weekends event with a transfer further south. The GFS still cuts but is getting better. Still gives us a good front end thump.

[algae888]

Today's EPS is Drool Worthy. getting the cold with the negative EPO but also a negative Nao is showing up and it's also showing up on other guidance. The pattern actually looks better then the second half of 2015. Should also add love the lower Heights north of Hawaii extending into the West Coast. The negative EPO / positive PNA is undercut by this so it should remain very active with plenty of cold air are around

[mwilli]

This is why I keep coming back to this site,got a new snowblower so when I'm hearing MLK weekend and yesterday Goldberg and Gregory mention long term cold/and the four letter word(snow)keep the info coming guy's....

[amugs]

This is a hell of a temp map that has done well with this winter temps and MJO forecast overall. Ready for it...

[Math23x7]

Here is the day 12-16 500 mb anomaly map from today's 18Z GEFS:



This is what you want to see happen to the 500 mb features for colder temperature anomalies.  By comparison, here is the period from January 6th to March 31st, 2015:



Not too far off when you compare them.

[heehaw453]

With an antecedent air mass like this you could get a really an intense thump of snow.  It may actually be the further west track of the low the less intense the initial warming.  Do think it does transfer at some point, but regardless this is intriguing.  Have to see how it looks by early next week.

[amugs]

Lets see if this happens and the EURO has a clue- IF SO this could be one of three majors!! Storms and indicies - Negative AO, NAO and Positive PNA over the central Rockies
From 33& Rain courtesy of wxbell

[algae888]

Next Saturday's system is looking really good on all ensembles. Most of the operations are showing a cutter with a front end thump of snow then to ice and rain but not so for many of the ensemble members. That block over Canada and Greenland keeps getting stronger even with such a far Northwest starting point of the low-pressure out west so it has nowhere to go but south of that block. The EPS snowfall mean for this system is 4 in in Central Park and 8in in our northwest suburbs that's impressive. Then it looks like we have two more systems to track after this one with the last one being an Archambault affect as the Nao transfers from negative to positive we shall see. Any way everyone should get their sleep now as things are going to get quite active

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Love the enthusiasm as always but let’s try to get one storm in 2020 before we start talking about three.

[algae888]

Ensembles still look good with a nice front end thump of snow next Saturday. The high over New England keeps getting stronger on both ensembles and op. The trend for the most part this winter has been for systems to Trend weaker the closer we get in look at this coming Thursday was supposed to have a strong cutter now it's basically a cold frontal Passage

[sroc4]

It’s all long range stuff here. Colder air is coming back. This is almost certain, but the surface details of a winter storm are a mere mirage at this point.  Tuesday wed at the earliest before I get too excited or disappointed about anything.

[algae888]

The Euro has joined the party for our snow event for Saturday a solid 4 to 8in area-wide. We are now five days away from start time which should be early Saturday morning so we watch the trends the next 2 days and then hone in on what's actually going to happen the last three. The trends the last few days is to have stronger Confluence and high-pressure over Quebec which if this continues to hold it's a pretty classic setup of a front end thump to a mix and then end as some rain. That's a pretty strong high pressure 1047 MB those are hard to move out in mid January

[nutleyblizzard]

The Euro has joined the party for our snow event for Saturday a solid 4 to 8in area-wide. We are now five days away from start time which should be early Saturday morning so we watch the trends the next 2 days and then hone in on what's actually going to happen the last three. The trends the last few days is to have stronger Confluence and high-pressure over Quebec which if this continues to hold it's a pretty classic setup of a front end thump to a mix and then end as some rain. That's a pretty strong high pressure 1047 MB those are hard to move out in mid January

Last nights CMC and the 6z GFS also trended colder. The GEFS is even hinting at a transfer south of us. Bottomline global models always underestimate confluence. As long as the surface low remains weak as depicted, expect the good trends to continue. Can't wait till the short range models gets a hold of this.

[heehaw453]

I agree with Algae and Nutley. The key to me for this has been how strong is the cutter and how much CAD (cold air). Ensemble guidance continues to suggest weaker primary and a transfer which then creates a stronger storm.

This is is not done yet and changes will continue. ATTM this scenario of a SWFE (south west flow event) I'd put a cap @ 8 inches for most and I'd say best chance for that is NW 95. We don't have dynamics in play and we'll have an eroding cold air mass.

What we do have though is a really nice antecedent air mass which has been lacking for most this entire winter. That's huge as we'll have a cold surface and mid levels to start.

Intriguing for sure... But don't get sold on anything just yet!

[Frank_Wx]

Began a thread for Saturday's event

[amugs]

2015 type cold incoming get your thermal out, wood for the stove and and poison to drink for this!

[mwilli]

I remember 2015 brutal cold,luckily I just had the boiler cleaned during the summer for that winter

[amugs]

Strong signal here for the 26th. Better a delay with this one as the MJO gets to phase 8. Allows the PNA to spike and the block to build a bit more IMO and we get a better cross Polar flow working.

[Irish]

If i had a nickel for every strong signal that ends up as squat, I'd be a rich man. Lol

[Radz]

Strong signal here for the 26th. Better a delay with this one as the MJO gets to phase 8. Allows the PNA to spike and the block to build a bit more IMO and we get a better cross Polar flow working.

Seems like ensembles all show a nice storm signal, 06z GFS shows a nice Miller B, 10 days out- wish it were under 5 days out...

[heehaw453]

Next week I'm fairly confident will be cold with the -EPO ushering in cold air. There is a threat window for 1/26 that will be dependent on how much ridging occurs on the east coast. The concern ATTM is that the ridging on east coast will allow for a SW flow which gives us a non desirable air mass.

However, in late January we can work with a non desirable air mass and still get snow, but in a majority of cases you need that cold air injection for big snows.

Remember though the skill level of the ensembles to determine 500mb pattern at 10 days out is about 25% correct. So we are not in a window to know much.

[Frank_Wx]

Although it will turn much colder I have hesitation on how long it will last and if we have the right pattern needed for it to snow. The long range continues showing a ++AO/NAO however the PNA/EPO regions are shown to improve. For that reason I think we will have our winter storm opportunities heading into February. We still have to watch one other system for later this month

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Next week I'm fairly confident will be cold with the -EPO ushering in cold air.  There is a threat window for 1/26 that will be dependent on how much ridging occurs on the east coast.  The concern ATTM is that the ridging on east coast will allow for a SW flow which gives us a non desirable air mass.

However, in late January we can work with a non desirable air mass and still get snow, but in a majority of cases you need that cold air injection for big snows.

Remember though the skill level of the ensembles to determine 500mb pattern at 10 days out is about 25% correct.  So we are not in a window to know much.

Boy has that changed on the long range in the the last 24 hours. Right now it looks like the same old pattern on the weekend of the 25th-26th, storm cuts way to our west with no transfer to the east coast and we rain.

Of course it's nine days away and there's plenty of time to go either way so I don't put stock in the solution from two days ago or todays. In summary long range models suck, that's why when people on forums mention we are lined up for 3 blizzards in the coming weeks it goes in one ear and out the other.

Does my frustration show? I'm sure it does, I'm not trying to hide it.

[heehaw453]

Indeed.  Your frustration is felt my many.  It's been 5 years since we have a good meteorological winter.  We don't get much help from the AO.  It stays positive and past several years we get troughs in the Pacific and not ridges.  We get a Pacific fire hose with the +AO right from Hawaii. Things get better but only for very short windows.  Then we bounce back to the +AO/-PNA/+EPO, etc.

In terms of the long range forecast it's a crap shoot.  I feel the same way about a 9 day forecast if it showed 2 significant snowstorms or 40's and rain, taken with a grain of salt.  

But my guess is we will have short windows in which to produce for the rest of the meteorological winter as the pattern relaxes and then our window opens up.  If we miss those windows, then it'll be real ratter meteorological winter.  

Others may feel February may produce and I sure hope they are right.  MJO hopefully helps us out by at least getting to phase 8.  We shall see..

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