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Long Range Thread 19.0

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:31 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Next week I'm fairly confident will be cold with the -EPO ushering in cold air.  There is a threat window for 1/26 that will be dependent on how much ridging occurs on the east coast.  The concern ATTM is that the ridging on east coast will allow for a SW flow which gives us a non desirable air mass.

However, in late January we can work with a non desirable air mass and still get snow, but in a majority of cases you need that cold air injection for big snows.

Remember though the skill level of the ensembles to determine 500mb pattern at 10 days out is about 25% correct.  So we are not in a window to know much.

Boy has that changed on the long range in the the last 24 hours. Right now it looks like the same old pattern on the weekend of the 25th-26th, storm cuts way to our west with no transfer to the east coast and we rain.

Of course it's nine days away and there's plenty of time to go either way so I don't put stock in the solution from two days ago or todays. In summary long range models suck, that's why when people on forums mention we are lined up for 3 blizzards in the coming weeks it goes in one ear and out the other.

Does my frustration show? I'm sure it does, I'm not trying to hide it.

100% CP. Even mets have a tendency to make statements that appear as gospel about where the pattern is going based on what the LR model pattern may look like on a model(s). The latest error IMHO has been the discussion about the MJO. A few days ago the MJO was beginning to hint at a phase 8, but more recently it appears it is trending more towards wanting to collapse before it does so and perhaps even re-emerge back out into the 4-6 region. This is almost certainly the reason we have seen the modeling back off its depictions of the "pattern flip". What seems more likely at the point will be a return to a more seasonable/marginal pattern such that a window of perhaps 7-14 days opens that could allow for snow opportunities in a "relaxed" and transient pattern, rather than an ideal pattern. One that flips back and forth. IF, and this is a big if, we can get the MJO into more favorable phases a longer period of truly favorable snow threats could exist, but it is entirely possible that the recycling/re-emergence back into the dreaded warm 4-6 phases over the next 7-14 days could certainly occur. The stratosphere while currently helping a little in its current state and position IMHO shows no sign of helping our situation in the LR, again if the LR predictions are accurate. Beyond day 10 it looks like it wants to shift back over to the other side of the globe. If anything this lends credence in the possibility of the warm phases of the MJO becoming prom once again. BUT the good news is is that just like when the LR modeling looks great only to turn south, so is the possibility of the LR looking mediocre at best and perhaps turning north. Anyway Im done being a debbie downer. As a side note I am sitting idol on this upcoming storm as I am currently suffering from a severe case of laryngitis and the worst man cold ever(arent they all?). My body feels like a bag of smashed A--holes, I cant talk, and I cant take off work to rest. pale wah wah wah. Sad. I really hope everyone on this board gets higher totals than anticipated. I will now go back to the sideline, and hopefully soon my bed, and chime in when I feel up to it.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:35 pm

Doc, great write up, easily understood!
I was self employed for 25 years and I feel for you, there are no sick days, you don't work, you don't make money.Many times I worked with bad colds having a mask on, great with a runny nose,LOL.Just load up on Sudafed and cough medicine and a pencil and a pad to communicate,LOL.Almost to the weekend, you can rest up then.
Get better fast Doc!
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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:57 pm

Doc I will be a contrarian to your post and I hope you feel better bud.

The VP 200 forecast fits with the MJO pattern going to 8 as yuo see teh wave in blue move east from 6 to 7 to 8
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

Which should result in this MJO forecast
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 CFSO_phase_full

Do we trust this?
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Cfs-mon_01_z500a_nhem_1

After looking at the convection maps in the PAC and IO it looks like this will come to fruition - could it change - possibly but time will tell.

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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:27 am

Have to see what happens with this.  As it stand now, probably not good for snow, but need to watch it. 8 days too far out to dismiss it entirely.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Euro12

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:04 am

@amugs wrote:Doc I will be a contrarian to your post and I hope you feel better bud.

The VP 200 forecast fits with the MJO pattern going to 8 as yuo see teh wave in blue move east from 6 to 7 to 8
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

Which should result in this MJO forecast
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 CFSO_phase_full

Do we trust this?
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Cfs-mon_01_z500a_nhem_1

After looking at the convection maps in the PAC and IO it looks like this will come to fruition - could it change - possibly but time will tell.

Feel better Scott! Sounds rough. Whiskey helps.

Mugs - we are seeing the effect of a westerly wind burst over the Dateline as we speak. From your VP chart the deep blues over 180 show that. Hence the cold outbreak next week. The problem is there is no other MJO wave following up.

The LR looks awful. It’s hard for me to put a positive spin on it. The Strat PV is acting as King. Some signs of temporary warming in early February. Temporary means it’s just a disruption of the PV not a SSWE. Better than nothing but even that warming is out in the LR and could be fake.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:33 pm

So whats next? Any GOOD storms on the horizon? Are we going to see any 6+ storms this year? So far my yearly total is 4 inches and its the end on January!
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Post by amugs on Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So whats next? Any GOOD  storms on the horizon? Are we going to see any 6+ storms this year? So far my yearly total is 4 inches and its the end on January!
Jman,
Take a chill pill with worrisome of end of Jan, Jesus we just hit mid month with 2 weeks to go!! I know this had been a ratter of a winter so far. Maybe next weekend again there is a storm possibility, coastal possibility. Has to see how it plays out.

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Post by Zhukov1945 on Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:44 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So whats next? Any GOOD  storms on the horizon? Are we going to see any 6+ storms this year? So far my yearly total is 4 inches and its the end on January!

Nobody really cares what your yearly total is ffs.
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Post by Irish on Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:47 pm

I agree with CP, Jman definitely needs to take a break from the board. No offense, but every time I see his name pop up with a post a get that same down trodden feeling, it's gonna be complaining about something, an underperforming storm, how he has work, or how bad the winter is, just something disheartening. I hate to say it because I know he's struggling with kidney stones, but his posts are the most irritating, depressing part of this board.

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Post by Zhukov1945 on Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:47 pm

@Irish wrote:I agree with CP, Jman definitely needs to take a break from the board. No offense, but every time I see his name pop up with a post a get that same down trodden feeling, it's gonna be complaining about something, an underperforming storm, how he has work, or how bad the winter is, just something disheartening.  I hate to say it because I know he's struggling with kidney stones, but his posts are the most irritating, depressing part of this board.

The silent majority speaks
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:29 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:So whats next? Any GOOD  storms on the horizon? Are we going to see any 6+ storms this year? So far my yearly total is 4 inches and its the end on January!
Jman,
Take a chill pill with worrisome of end of Jan, Jesus we just hit mid month with 2 weeks to go!!  I know this had been a ratter of a winter so far. Maybe next weekend again there is a storm possibility, coastal possibility. Has to see how it plays out.
I can't ask when our next storm is? Man you all are really attacking me for no reason!! I have been pretty quiet past few weeks and made may be a few posts about this storm of which have all gotten spit on. I don't get it. I guess it's how they come across I dunno cuz I sure don't feel like they are bad.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:00 am

I have seen worse in late January produce with an ULL depicted like this.  If it can deepen quickly off the coast and a little further south, then you'd have something.  FWIW, this a much better opportunity for the HV crew than the pittance that was just rendered.  Watch it over the next few days and if it looks anything like this in 3 days, then would be legit threat especially for HV crew.


Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Euroul12

You'd probably want the primary getting no higher than TN and not southern IL.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Euro13

EPS 500mb.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Eps50010

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Post by sroc4 on Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:05 am

@heehaw453 wrote:I have seen worse in late January produce with an ULL depicted like this.  If it can deepen quickly off the coast and a little further south, then you'd have something.  FWIW, this a much better opportunity for the HV crew than the pittance that was just rendered.  Watch it over the next few days and if it looks anything like this in 3 days, then would be legit threat especially for HV crew.


Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Euroul12

You'd probably want the primary getting no higher than TN and not southern IL.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Euro13


EPS 500mb.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Eps50010



With obviously eons of time and countless variations to go I will say if last nights euro were to occur verbatim we would also need to watch for an occluded LP by the time that ULL reaches the coastline. Again if it were to happen verbatim.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:40 pm

That is a threat window on the 6 day.  Interior is favored for now because the thermal profiles are marginal as per GEFS. But this could end up being much further south as it'll depend on confluence to the north. Get some dynamics with this and then all bets are off.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Gefs11

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Gefs8510

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Gefssu10

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:08 am

For the threat this weekend we watch the ULL.  The EPS puts NEPA, NW NJ and HV in the game.  The snows come normally to those are north of the ULL. This is the baseline for me now. Any degradation from this in the next two days, and I will kindly dismiss this threat.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Euroul14


Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Mslp11

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:45 am

@heehaw453 wrote:For the threat this weekend we watch the ULL.  The EPS puts NEPA, NW NJ and HV in the game.  The snows come normally to those are north of the ULL.  This is the baseline for me now.  Any degradation from this in the next two days, and I will kindly dismiss this threat.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Euroul14


Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Mslp11

This will be extremely important to watch. The threat of a significant snowfall - and for the first time this season I can use "Godzilla" - exists this weekend. The MJO wave will be propagating thru phase 7 at this time. This is the most anomalous WWB (westerly wind burst) event we have seen to this point in the winter, and it's happening just west of the dateline which should signal positive heights back in the PNA/EPO regions.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 ECMF_phase_51m_small

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 U.anom.30.5S-5N

Latest guidance shows a +PNA and an active STJ - sub tropical jet stream - developing later this week. The ridge spike calls for northern stream energy to drop in and phase with the STJ upper energy. Meanwhile, blocking is shown to take hold of Canada all the way up into Greenland. It is not a -NAO per-say, but the ridge over Canada will act as the mechanism to prevent the low pressure from cutting too far west, and if it tries, a secondary low pressure will attempt to form off the coast.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Gfs_mslpa_nhem_19

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Gfs_mslpa_nhem_25

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Gfs_z500_vort_us_26

The set-up is very delicate and could easily dissipate on future model runs. It will be one to watch this week. One thing to consider is we are under a cold air mass now but will warm gradually this week. By the time of this event (Saturday time frame again) our temps will be milder and we will NEED the transfer to occur early for sections along the coast to benefit. The secondary needs to 'bomb' out in order for the cold air to make it to the coast. N&W of NYC are in favorable position to see snow again this weekend but let's see how this ends up trending.

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Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:17 am

I see on the 6z GFS the ULL is basically centered over NJ. Ideally we will want it a little south of that projection, correct? (And when I say ideally I mean for everyone from the shore and north).
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:21 am

@billg315 wrote:I see on the 6z GFS the ULL is basically centered over NJ. Ideally we will want it a little south of that projection, correct? (And when I say ideally I mean for everyone from the shore and north).

Correct. Really need that northern energy to dig in response to the PNA spike. If it does not the ULL will end up where it is now or maybe even more N&W.

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:23 am

@billg315 wrote:I see on the 6z GFS the ULL is basically centered over NJ. Ideally we will want it a little south of that projection, correct? (And when I say ideally I mean for everyone from the shore and north).

Yes. Also, the ensembles are a touch north of the operational. The ULL needs to slide under NJ for coast to have a legit shot at snow. I would say the Delmarva is best. Verbatim the op GFS shows significant snow 30 miles NW of 95. I believe this favors NW of 95, but that can change significantly.

Frank did a nice job pointing out more favorable 500mb pattern. If he's saying Godzilla potential I think that's a good thing.

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:31 am

Well I love the potential but being on the coast I am not getting my hopes up certainly not yet, You had to say godzilla frank, you got my heart fluttering LOL I really hope we all can benefit a godzilla could mean everyone inland and not the coast. Lets hope thats not the case. Havent we also seen temperature forecasts to be colder than modeled as of recent? So could this help IF we do see lower temps or do we need to 100% have a bombing LP off the delmarva? I am hopeful but not gonna go overboard.
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:42 am

This is a really, really nice look on 06Z EPS. Very encouraging to see ensemble support and not just some fluke op run.

I'll try to curb my enthusiasm. Because we all know this is way too early to get excited.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Euro14

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:50 am

@heehaw453 wrote:This is a really, really nice look on 06Z EPS.  Very encouraging to see ensemble support and not just some fluke op run.

I'll try to curb my enthusiasm. Because we all know this is way too early to get excited.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Euro14
that looks like exactly what we want. yes we all need to be careful, we know how this winter has gone especially 5 days out.
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:25 am

The 6z EPS and GFS OP is what WE want to see and would need. There isnt much cold air to work with this time so we need a ULL stacked at all 3 level 500, 850 and 700 levels and doing this off the Eelmarva will induce a strengthening idea of the storm and generation of cold air. If not NWNJ and HV and EPA. Lots of time and 5 days of runs to go.
A real shame we don't have a true arctic sir mass like what we have now cause this would be a BANGER!!
The block is real it's the LP strength and position that is key here

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:47 am

With the temperatures being marginal at best, I wonder if this could start as rain and change over to snow as the system intensifies?
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:15 am

GFS again here 12Z has a pretty well placed ULL about 50-75 miles more S would be optimum
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 16 Img_2048

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