Long Range Thread 19.0
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essexcountypete
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Regarding weekend threat
Amazing at 130 hours I feel this confident on the storm. I'll continue to keep an eye on it, but here's my thoughts.
Let it prove me wrong! Would love that.
High confidence in marginal antecedent air mass for our area.
High confidence this storm is going to move in the Atlantic and not inland.
High confidence it will become a strong strong storm with a phase of the two streams of the jet stream.
High confidence impact to us with regard to snowfall will be light if any.
Best chance of significant snow from this is for folks in Down East Maine and Nova Scotia.
I think we need to look beyond the 2/5 time frame for next shot at snow.
There is decent ensemble agreement for +PNA/-NAO developing. This combo you look for at especially at the coast. It slows the atmospheric flow down and tends to trap cold high pressure for much longer periods of time. Cold air will also be in greater supply due to -EPO preceding this time frame. Western Atlantic Ridge also would prevent the OTS escape of a storm.
If and that is a BIG IF we get anything like this look the coast will have its best shot at significant snow since March 2019 in this incredibly hostile pattern we've had since mid December.
Amazing at 130 hours I feel this confident on the storm. I'll continue to keep an eye on it, but here's my thoughts.
Let it prove me wrong! Would love that.
High confidence in marginal antecedent air mass for our area.
High confidence this storm is going to move in the Atlantic and not inland.
High confidence it will become a strong strong storm with a phase of the two streams of the jet stream.
High confidence impact to us with regard to snowfall will be light if any.
Best chance of significant snow from this is for folks in Down East Maine and Nova Scotia.
I think we need to look beyond the 2/5 time frame for next shot at snow.
There is decent ensemble agreement for +PNA/-NAO developing. This combo you look for at especially at the coast. It slows the atmospheric flow down and tends to trap cold high pressure for much longer periods of time. Cold air will also be in greater supply due to -EPO preceding this time frame. Western Atlantic Ridge also would prevent the OTS escape of a storm.
If and that is a BIG IF we get anything like this look the coast will have its best shot at significant snow since March 2019 in this incredibly hostile pattern we've had since mid December.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Irish wrote:What does that mean aiannone and Radz?
Just means you don't need a paid subscription to view those model runs on Pivotalweather...
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
That's cool I'll check that out.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Low confidence remains for any coastal storm this weekend. If we had a better timed PNA spike it would have tugged the storm west. Instead, there is a 'kicker' crashing into the PAC NW that forces the ridge east and throws everything off downstream. Also, the AO/NAO are positive during this time. As mentioned, depending what happens with the Stratosphere, a pattern change remains on track for after February 4th.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Frank_Wx wrote:Low confidence remains for any coastal storm this weekend. If we had a better timed PNA spike it would have tugged the storm west. Instead, there is a 'kicker' crashing into the PAC NW that forces the ridge east and throws everything off downstream. Also, the AO/NAO are positive during this time. As mentioned, depending what happens with the Stratosphere, a pattern change remains on track for after February 4th.
I'd be more interested in the energy that swings through on the backend of this quite honestly. This model solution wouldn't even affect Nova Scotia. Trough is way too positive. I think modest accumulations could be possible as the trough swings through the area. Air column would be cold enough at that point.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
If that gives us all a few inches, I will take it in this snow starved time.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Is it possible that the high that heads off the coast can turn the wind to the south, and that plus dynamic cooling from a perfectly placed low could create the right conditions? Just spitballing here. But perhaps that would be a way to get this done without a phase with the northern stream?
So much has to go right. My guess is cold rain at this point, but it's just a guess.
So much has to go right. My guess is cold rain at this point, but it's just a guess.
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Is it possible that the high that heads off the coast can turn the wind to the south, and that plus dynamic cooling from a perfectly placed low could create the right conditions? Just spitballing here. But perhaps that would be a way to get this done without a phase with the northern stream?
So much has to go right. My guess is cold rain at this point, but it's just a guess.
Cold rain is possible if this is pure southern stream energy and tucked in solution. That'd warm things up aloft and still have decent precip. I doubt it though. I think that goes wide right w/out northern stream pulling it up. My guess we get minimal precip from coastal and have northern stream backend as our possible way to a few inches.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
heehaw453 wrote:bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Is it possible that the high that heads off the coast can turn the wind to the south, and that plus dynamic cooling from a perfectly placed low could create the right conditions? Just spitballing here. But perhaps that would be a way to get this done without a phase with the northern stream?
So much has to go right. My guess is cold rain at this point, but it's just a guess.
Cold rain is possible if this is pure southern stream energy and tucked in solution. That'd warm things up aloft and still have decent precip. I doubt it though. I think that goes wide right w/out northern stream pulling it up. My guess we get minimal precip from coastal and have northern stream backend as our possible way to a few inches.
A possible inverted trough scenario is possible with what you describe too.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Good ENS cluster of low pressures here. Ni e improved map over 0z and 6z runs.
Map from PB @ 33rain
Map from PB @ 33rain
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Navy says game on - this is just used to comparatively set against other progressive models - the GEFS agree
Its gonna waffle - the pieces of energy are over the PAC as I write so LOTS of time with this, can break any which way.
No definitive statements at this time just sit back and watch it play it..
There is so much energy (4 to 5 pieces) flying around east of the Rockies its literally chaos for the models at this juncture
Its gonna waffle - the pieces of energy are over the PAC as I write so LOTS of time with this, can break any which way.
No definitive statements at this time just sit back and watch it play it..
There is so much energy (4 to 5 pieces) flying around east of the Rockies its literally chaos for the models at this juncture
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
I’ll hold off until Thursday on getting excited or pessimistic. Way too early to get a fix on this yet.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
True bill, even then theres still a large magin of errror, aren't we talking monday? Thats 7 days away.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
I thought it was Saturday into Sunday.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Monitor the ridge out west. Frank mentioned this as well. There has been a little bit of a trend in flattening it a little lately which keeps our southern and northern energy separate. But with 5-6 days to go plenty of time to watch. Timing of a fairly potent bit of vorticity into the N CONUS seems to be important in determining if it will flattery the ridge too quickly. The steeper the east side of the ridge the stronger the northern energy will dig. Of course timing with the southern energy is imperative. Again very complex set of interactions the likes of which will take some time before we see the final soln.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Yes it is sat into Sunday if there is a bigger storm. If that one slides south of us Sunday into Monday could still produce via an Inverted trough (IVT) or northern energy that throws moisture back as it deepens when it reaches the Atlantic.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Yep, very fine line, well explained, gonna just let it play out and once its moving in and WSW are posted i'll get excited.sroc4 wrote:Monitor the ridge out west. Frank mentioned this as well. There has been a little bit of a trend in flattening it a little lately which keeps our southern and northern energy separate. But with 5-6 days to go plenty of time to watch. Timing of a fairly potent bit of vorticity into the N CONUS seems to be important in determining if it will flattery the ridge too quickly. The steeper the east side of the ridge the stronger the northern energy will dig. Of course timing with the southern energy is imperative. Again very complex set of interactions the likes of which will take some time before we see the final soln.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Remember we have a height rise with small N NAO block forming that is trending slightly stronger which can help help combat the PNA being deamplidied. Time will tell.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
00z GFS!
That’s it, that’s the post.
That’s it, that’s the post.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
What's the 00z GFS saying?
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
0Z GFS really bombs out well. Very organized storm that matures on the approach to just inside the BM (drops over 20mb is 12 hours). Rapid intensification occurs on the way to BM which puts our area on NW side where you'd get good banding. It continues to intensify even after the BM.
The key is the trough is much more neutral, digs and the energy gets out ahead of that trough quite well.
Sure, why not. I'd take the 6"+ it just gave me. Most would do well with the scenario. I'll continue to temper expectations until I see some consistency which won't be until Wednesday most likely.
The key is the trough is much more neutral, digs and the energy gets out ahead of that trough quite well.
Sure, why not. I'd take the 6"+ it just gave me. Most would do well with the scenario. I'll continue to temper expectations until I see some consistency which won't be until Wednesday most likely.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Irish wrote:What's the 00z GFS saying?
She’s been shifting west all day with better phasing and this run was no exception.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
I'm gathering the storm had been off the coast too far to make a great impact and now it's getting within greater striking distance?
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
It just nukes SNE. It's still maturing up until Maine. How many Miller A storms mature all the way from North Carolina to Down East Maine? Cannot think of too many quite honestly.
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Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Irish wrote:I'm gathering the storm had been off the coast too far to make a great impact and now it's getting within greater striking distance?
Still way too early to know anything definitive. I think by Wednesday night we know better if this is something to get excited about. Too much model inconsistency ATTM.
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