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Long Range Thread 19.0

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by phil155 Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:19 pm

amugs wrote:Great write up Scott, the PAC JET is killing us. LR had such promise and now we are looking at near 50 Mon and Tues. Gonna be interesting to see what happens after this cold front comes though Tuesday night


At this point I think it is reasonable to say the trend is our friend(in this case it is not being very friendly) in trying to get an idea of what will happen with this front and the cold air like most recent cold air masses is not likely to stick around long or at least long enough for it to lead to measurable snow

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:euro still holding onto small hope
do you have maps? Do we get hit or is it still a miss.

You know better, if we got a hit this thread would have jumped three pages in the last 30 minutes.

Still OTS but is a 991 off the Delmarva about due south of RI at 7am Saturday. Still misses us but improvements over the last run.

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by essexcountypete Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:47 pm

Local evening weather folks had nothing good to say.

With no news being bad news around here, and no new posts since 4:20, I'll just go on the assumption that the latest model runs were so bad the whole board went to get high.
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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by Irish Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:14 pm

Puff...puff...pass...
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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:50 pm

NJ Strong Weather Weenies: "Stick a fork in this storm"

NAM: "Hold my beer"
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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:38 pm

I realize it's just a weak low and will never bomb out. But I see blue over my house on that map darnit!
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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:06 am

Regarding the weekned....you probably won’t hear from me unless something dramatic happens. I’m putting a fork in it for myself. There is simply no phasing. Timing of the energy crashing the coast out west flattens the ridge at the most inopportune time and there is nothing to our East to slow it down. Can’t say it wasn’t expected. Remember all whining is to be done in banter.

Cheers
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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:26 am

The only thing i believe we can possibly get out of the weekend storm is when the trough swings through.  C-1" is possible as the air mass should be cold enough.  This will be a strong storm once is gets out over the waters north of our latitude and will affect Atlantic Canada significantly.  If we had atmospheric blocking there would be a powder keg on the Atlantic seaboard that'd go BOOM once the northern energy interacted with it.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Euro5012

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:38 am

There has been talk of snow around 2/7. That is possible ATTM IMO. At this stage the Euro and GFS both have good energy and a deep trough to our west. Euro has the energy to our west and GFS to our east. Euro is a cutter and GFS is a near miss OTS.

At least maybe a chance...


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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by amugs Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:50 pm

Interesting Stats here that I got off of Twitter -  except 2008 they musty have implemented the new math curriculum for adding WTH???  4 + 8 = 9?????
CP call the zoo keeper and demand an explanation to his ratio algorithm for such heinous work!!

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 EPi9GwEW4AEHEgH?format=jpg&name=medium

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:14 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Today's GFS shows a PV split in the Strat at 10mb in the medium range. Confidence growing we are headed toward a SSWE that should bring us a stretch of 10-12 days of colder than normal weather. Unfortunately, the zonal winds do not seem to want to shift westerly which could make the pattern change short lived before we head back into the pattern we've been in for the last several weeks.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_18

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 U_65N_10hpa_gefs


And just like that the GFS no longer shows a PV split. In fact, there is a strong warming event that displaces the PV for a few days before it goes right back to a strong vortex idling over the Arctic. Can’t catch a break this winter...


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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:55 am

If this is true I believe that'll just about do it for the winter's remainder.  I would expect February at least +3 temps with patterns shown here.  Reversal of these 500mb patterns at such an extreme amplitude in time to give us any decent shots is extremely unlikely.

It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Pna12
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Nao12

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:20 am

heehaw453 wrote:If this is true I believe that'll just about do it for the winter's remainder.  I would expect February at least +3 temps with patterns shown here.  Reversal of these 500mb patterns at such an extreme amplitude in time to give us any decent shots is extremely unlikely.

It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Pna12
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Nao12



On the bright side the EPO looks to go negative.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 350

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:16 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:If this is true I believe that'll just about do it for the winter's remainder.  I would expect February at least +3 temps with patterns shown here.  Reversal of these 500mb patterns at such an extreme amplitude in time to give us any decent shots is extremely unlikely.

It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Pna12
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Nao12



On the bright side the EPO looks to go negative.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 350

Yes.  That is a bright spot to get some transient cold and where that cold settles will depend on how far east the ridge in Alaska gets.  But seeing that +AO/+NAO/-PNA I give this to be our chances for any significant snowfall for foreseeable future.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Tenor10

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:24 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:If this is true I believe that'll just about do it for the winter's remainder.  I would expect February at least +3 temps with patterns shown here.  Reversal of these 500mb patterns at such an extreme amplitude in time to give us any decent shots is extremely unlikely.

It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Pna12
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Nao12



On the bright side the EPO looks to go negative.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 350

Yes.  That is a bright spot to get some transient cold and where that cold settles will depend on how far west the ridge in Alaska gets.  But seeing that +AO/+NAO/-PNA I give this to be our chances for any significant snowfall for foreseeable future.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Tenor10

Assuming the LR and Md range forecast predictions are correct. Because they have been spot on thus far this season (said with heaping spoon of sarcasm)

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:44 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:If this is true I believe that'll just about do it for the winter's remainder.  I would expect February at least +3 temps with patterns shown here.  Reversal of these 500mb patterns at such an extreme amplitude in time to give us any decent shots is extremely unlikely.

It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Pna12
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Nao12



On the bright side the EPO looks to go negative.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 350

Yes.  That is a bright spot to get some transient cold and where that cold settles will depend on how far west the ridge in Alaska gets.  But seeing that +AO/+NAO/-PNA I give this to be our chances for any significant snowfall for foreseeable future.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Tenor10

Assuming the LR and Md range forecast predictions are correct.  Because they have been spot on thus far this season (said with heaping spoon of sarcasm)

Definitely you always have to challenge the assumptions of anything beyond 7/8 days and that's why I said if it's true in the beginning of my statement, but the PAC, polar and arctic regions have given us no love this winter since mid December. We continue to see polar vortex dancing around between Alaska and Greenland killing heights. Never though can it be said that something well timed cannot occur and we get a snowstorm. We saw a terrible pattern in 2016 and got slammed third week of January as the PNA really pumped up. My pessimism is growing though on our prospects now that we head into February...

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:57 pm

[quote="heehaw453"][quote="sroc4"][quote="heehaw453"][quote="sroc4"]
heehaw453 wrote:  ..........My pessimism is growing though on our prospects now that we head into February...

Me too heehaw...me too

upset

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WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:55 pm

CP, where are you?

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Whispe10
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:06 pm

Not that most folks will be all that thrilled, but still think c-1" possible as the trough swings through Sunday before dawn.  Temps are supportive of it and that trough has some energy that may be a bit underdone as modeled.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Nam13

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by phil155 Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:10 pm

looks like a very realistic possibility and with this winter being the way it is I will take it

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:31 pm

The Phase 3 forecast for the MJO maybe able to bring us a trough and pump the PNA but the positioning of both along with the trough axis are critical to the next storms chance next weekendish.
This has been a ratter for sure.
One thing I have seen and learned, the EPO, Tropical Convection run our winters.
Alaska isn't a fridge it beats back the SE Ridge.

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 31, 2020 5:35 pm

Can't go off the CPC tele forecast alone as today's EPS does not have a Western trough and the South East Ridge is gone after 48 to 72 hours. The AO is going to Skyrocket mainly because the vortex is going to shift from Alaska to Greenland. Which is better for us by far and the EPO Ridge is now shifting Eastward. That was a big flip on the EPS today. Don't give up on the frontal waves Wednesday through Friday next week. Plenty of cold are just to our North and climo favors it pushing South we shall see
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:46 pm

amugs wrote:The Phase 3 forecast for the  MJO maybe able to bring us a trough and pump the PNA but the positioning of both along with the trough axis are critical to the next storms chance next weekendish.
This has been a ratter for sure.
One thing I have seen and learned, the EPO, Tropical Convection run our winters.
Alaska isn't a fridge it beats back the SE Ridge.

Not busting chops here Mugs just curious. You talked about the solar minimum a lot during the fall having a positive impact on us for this winter. Why do you think that didn't have the effect you were thinking it would? I know almost every teleconnection has worked against us the past 6 weeks and the MJO just hasn't progressed into the cold phases as many predicted it would by mid month. Were there just to many other negatives to overcome or do you think the solar minimum does not have the effect overall on our weather that many thought?

Keep hope alive my optimistic friend.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:49 pm

algae888 wrote:Can't go off the  CPC tele forecast alone as today's EPS does not have a Western trough and the South East Ridge is gone after 48 to 72 hours. The AO is going to Skyrocket mainly because the vortex is going to shift from Alaska to Greenland. Which is better for us by far and the EPO Ridge is now shifting Eastward. That was a big flip on the EPS today. Don't give up on the frontal waves Wednesday through Friday next week. Plenty of cold are just to our North and climo favors it pushing South we shall see

Thanks Al. I won't believe any of the changes until I actually see them but it's nice to at least have some hope in the near term.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:51 pm

dkodgis wrote:CP, where are you?

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Whispe10

Can't find anything yet regarding the rest of this winter. Not sure if this year was skipped. Certainly winter has been to this point.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:58 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:The Phase 3 forecast for the  MJO maybe able to bring us a trough and pump the PNA but the positioning of both along with the trough axis are critical to the next storms chance next weekendish.
This has been a ratter for sure.
One thing I have seen and learned, the EPO, Tropical Convection run our winters.
Alaska isn't a fridge it beats back the SE Ridge.

Not busting chops here Mugs just curious. You talked about the solar minimum a lot during the fall having a positive impact on us for this winter. Why do you think that didn't have the effect you were thinking it would? I know almost every teleconnection has worked against us the past 6 weeks and the MJO just hasn't progressed into the cold phases as many predicted it would by mid month. Were there just to many other negatives to overcome or do you think the solar minimum does not have the effect overall on our weather that many thought?

Keep hope alive my optimistic friend.

My thoughts on this CP are that low solar isn’t a 1:1 effect. It’s more of a longer term effect. When/if low solar persists there would be a lag to its larger scale effects. We have only scratched the surface to how the sun effects our planet. In a nut shell the suns effects work on a time scale that most have a hard time understanding. For you and me it might be a life time. For earth it’s overnight. If that makes sense. That’s my take anyway.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:09 am

Regarding next week.  There will most likely be several waves of low pressure that don't track favorably for us.  This means baroclinic zone is not favorable for us.  There will be high pressure (not super strong) in a good spot for a period of time to give some marginal cold air.

To get a nice overrunning event you need deeper cold in all layers of the atmospheric column and juicy slug of moisture that it way out in front of your cutting low pressure. Otherwise you get a mixed bad that won't add up to much.

Path to snow is one of these storms is able to track off the coast and setup the baroclinic zone to our south and then another follows it with the cold air in place. That would do it for us.

I'm not saying NW and interior folks can't get some accumulation, but it'll be quite modest without some movement of that zone and moisture following it.  Not an easy task folks as we have nothing to deflect the lows underneath us.  You all here the same broken record this year from us posters and it's a real shame.

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