Long Range Thread 19.0
+38
essexcountypete
SoulSingMG
Scullybutcher
phil155
bobjohnsonforthehall
Zhukov1945
dsix85
Radz
lja
Grselig
devsman
DAYBLAZER
Irish
Dunnzoo
jimv45
sabamfa
SENJsnowman
frank 638
heehaw453
skinsfan1177
sroc4
hyde345
CPcantmeasuresnow
Math23x7
nutleyblizzard
rb924119
weatherwatchermom
aiannone
jmanley32
billg315
dkodgis
Snow88
algae888
docstox12
HectorO
mwilli
amugs
Frank_Wx
42 posters
Page 22 of 28
Page 22 of 28 • 1 ... 12 ... 21, 22, 23 ... 28
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
amugs wrote:Great write up Scott, the PAC JET is killing us. LR had such promise and now we are looking at near 50 Mon and Tues. Gonna be interesting to see what happens after this cold front comes though Tuesday night
At this point I think it is reasonable to say the trend is our friend(in this case it is not being very friendly) in trying to get an idea of what will happen with this front and the cold air like most recent cold air masses is not likely to stick around long or at least long enough for it to lead to measurable snow
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 474
Join date : 2019-12-16
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
jmanley32 wrote:do you have maps? Do we get hit or is it still a miss.sroc4 wrote:euro still holding onto small hope
You know better, if we got a hit this thread would have jumped three pages in the last 30 minutes.
Still OTS but is a 991 off the Delmarva about due south of RI at 7am Saturday. Still misses us but improvements over the last run.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7265
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Local evening weather folks had nothing good to say.
With no news being bad news around here, and no new posts since 4:20, I'll just go on the assumption that the latest model runs were so bad the whole board went to get high.
With no news being bad news around here, and no new posts since 4:20, I'll just go on the assumption that the latest model runs were so bad the whole board went to get high.
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 783
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Puff...puff...pass...
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
NJ Strong Weather Weenies: "Stick a fork in this storm"
NAM: "Hold my beer"
NAM: "Hold my beer"
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2016-10-02
Location : Flemington NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
I realize it's just a weak low and will never bomb out. But I see blue over my house on that map darnit!
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2016-10-02
Location : Flemington NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Regarding the weekned....you probably won’t hear from me unless something dramatic happens. I’m putting a fork in it for myself. There is simply no phasing. Timing of the energy crashing the coast out west flattens the ridge at the most inopportune time and there is nothing to our East to slow it down. Can’t say it wasn’t expected. Remember all whining is to be done in banter.
Cheers
Cheers
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
The only thing i believe we can possibly get out of the weekend storm is when the trough swings through. C-1" is possible as the air mass should be cold enough. This will be a strong storm once is gets out over the waters north of our latitude and will affect Atlantic Canada significantly. If we had atmospheric blocking there would be a powder keg on the Atlantic seaboard that'd go BOOM once the northern energy interacted with it.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3901
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
There has been talk of snow around 2/7. That is possible ATTM IMO. At this stage the Euro and GFS both have good energy and a deep trough to our west. Euro has the energy to our west and GFS to our east. Euro is a cutter and GFS is a near miss OTS.
At least maybe a chance...
At least maybe a chance...
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3901
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Interesting Stats here that I got off of Twitter - except 2008 they musty have implemented the new math curriculum for adding WTH??? 4 + 8 = 9?????
CP call the zoo keeper and demand an explanation to his ratio algorithm for such heinous work!!
CP call the zoo keeper and demand an explanation to his ratio algorithm for such heinous work!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Frank_Wx wrote:Today's GFS shows a PV split in the Strat at 10mb in the medium range. Confidence growing we are headed toward a SSWE that should bring us a stretch of 10-12 days of colder than normal weather. Unfortunately, the zonal winds do not seem to want to shift westerly which could make the pattern change short lived before we head back into the pattern we've been in for the last several weeks.
And just like that the GFS no longer shows a PV split. In fact, there is a strong warming event that displaces the PV for a few days before it goes right back to a strong vortex idling over the Arctic. Can’t catch a break this winter...
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
If this is true I believe that'll just about do it for the winter's remainder. I would expect February at least +3 temps with patterns shown here. Reversal of these 500mb patterns at such an extreme amplitude in time to give us any decent shots is extremely unlikely.
It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...
It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3901
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
heehaw453 wrote:If this is true I believe that'll just about do it for the winter's remainder. I would expect February at least +3 temps with patterns shown here. Reversal of these 500mb patterns at such an extreme amplitude in time to give us any decent shots is extremely unlikely.
It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...
On the bright side the EPO looks to go negative.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
sroc4 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:If this is true I believe that'll just about do it for the winter's remainder. I would expect February at least +3 temps with patterns shown here. Reversal of these 500mb patterns at such an extreme amplitude in time to give us any decent shots is extremely unlikely.
It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...
On the bright side the EPO looks to go negative.
Yes. That is a bright spot to get some transient cold and where that cold settles will depend on how far east the ridge in Alaska gets. But seeing that +AO/+NAO/-PNA I give this to be our chances for any significant snowfall for foreseeable future.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3901
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
heehaw453 wrote:sroc4 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:If this is true I believe that'll just about do it for the winter's remainder. I would expect February at least +3 temps with patterns shown here. Reversal of these 500mb patterns at such an extreme amplitude in time to give us any decent shots is extremely unlikely.
It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...
On the bright side the EPO looks to go negative.
Yes. That is a bright spot to get some transient cold and where that cold settles will depend on how far west the ridge in Alaska gets. But seeing that +AO/+NAO/-PNA I give this to be our chances for any significant snowfall for foreseeable future.
Assuming the LR and Md range forecast predictions are correct. Because they have been spot on thus far this season (said with heaping spoon of sarcasm)
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
sroc4 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:sroc4 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:If this is true I believe that'll just about do it for the winter's remainder. I would expect February at least +3 temps with patterns shown here. Reversal of these 500mb patterns at such an extreme amplitude in time to give us any decent shots is extremely unlikely.
It's not the first ratter and won't be the last...
On the bright side the EPO looks to go negative.
Yes. That is a bright spot to get some transient cold and where that cold settles will depend on how far west the ridge in Alaska gets. But seeing that +AO/+NAO/-PNA I give this to be our chances for any significant snowfall for foreseeable future.
Assuming the LR and Md range forecast predictions are correct. Because they have been spot on thus far this season (said with heaping spoon of sarcasm)
Definitely you always have to challenge the assumptions of anything beyond 7/8 days and that's why I said if it's true in the beginning of my statement, but the PAC, polar and arctic regions have given us no love this winter since mid December. We continue to see polar vortex dancing around between Alaska and Greenland killing heights. Never though can it be said that something well timed cannot occur and we get a snowstorm. We saw a terrible pattern in 2016 and got slammed third week of January as the PNA really pumped up. My pessimism is growing though on our prospects now that we head into February...
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3901
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
[quote="heehaw453"][quote="sroc4"][quote="heehaw453"][quote="sroc4"]
Me too heehaw...me too
heehaw453 wrote: ..........My pessimism is growing though on our prospects now that we head into February...
Me too heehaw...me too
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3901
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
looks like a very realistic possibility and with this winter being the way it is I will take it
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 474
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
The Phase 3 forecast for the MJO maybe able to bring us a trough and pump the PNA but the positioning of both along with the trough axis are critical to the next storms chance next weekendish.
This has been a ratter for sure.
One thing I have seen and learned, the EPO, Tropical Convection run our winters.
Alaska isn't a fridge it beats back the SE Ridge.
This has been a ratter for sure.
One thing I have seen and learned, the EPO, Tropical Convection run our winters.
Alaska isn't a fridge it beats back the SE Ridge.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Can't go off the CPC tele forecast alone as today's EPS does not have a Western trough and the South East Ridge is gone after 48 to 72 hours. The AO is going to Skyrocket mainly because the vortex is going to shift from Alaska to Greenland. Which is better for us by far and the EPO Ridge is now shifting Eastward. That was a big flip on the EPS today. Don't give up on the frontal waves Wednesday through Friday next week. Plenty of cold are just to our North and climo favors it pushing South we shall see
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
amugs wrote:The Phase 3 forecast for the MJO maybe able to bring us a trough and pump the PNA but the positioning of both along with the trough axis are critical to the next storms chance next weekendish.
This has been a ratter for sure.
One thing I have seen and learned, the EPO, Tropical Convection run our winters.
Alaska isn't a fridge it beats back the SE Ridge.
Not busting chops here Mugs just curious. You talked about the solar minimum a lot during the fall having a positive impact on us for this winter. Why do you think that didn't have the effect you were thinking it would? I know almost every teleconnection has worked against us the past 6 weeks and the MJO just hasn't progressed into the cold phases as many predicted it would by mid month. Were there just to many other negatives to overcome or do you think the solar minimum does not have the effect overall on our weather that many thought?
Keep hope alive my optimistic friend.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
algae888 wrote:Can't go off the CPC tele forecast alone as today's EPS does not have a Western trough and the South East Ridge is gone after 48 to 72 hours. The AO is going to Skyrocket mainly because the vortex is going to shift from Alaska to Greenland. Which is better for us by far and the EPO Ridge is now shifting Eastward. That was a big flip on the EPS today. Don't give up on the frontal waves Wednesday through Friday next week. Plenty of cold are just to our North and climo favors it pushing South we shall see
Thanks Al. I won't believe any of the changes until I actually see them but it's nice to at least have some hope in the near term.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:amugs wrote:The Phase 3 forecast for the MJO maybe able to bring us a trough and pump the PNA but the positioning of both along with the trough axis are critical to the next storms chance next weekendish.
This has been a ratter for sure.
One thing I have seen and learned, the EPO, Tropical Convection run our winters.
Alaska isn't a fridge it beats back the SE Ridge.
Not busting chops here Mugs just curious. You talked about the solar minimum a lot during the fall having a positive impact on us for this winter. Why do you think that didn't have the effect you were thinking it would? I know almost every teleconnection has worked against us the past 6 weeks and the MJO just hasn't progressed into the cold phases as many predicted it would by mid month. Were there just to many other negatives to overcome or do you think the solar minimum does not have the effect overall on our weather that many thought?
Keep hope alive my optimistic friend.
My thoughts on this CP are that low solar isn’t a 1:1 effect. It’s more of a longer term effect. When/if low solar persists there would be a lag to its larger scale effects. We have only scratched the surface to how the sun effects our planet. In a nut shell the suns effects work on a time scale that most have a hard time understanding. For you and me it might be a life time. For earth it’s overnight. If that makes sense. That’s my take anyway.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8326
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Thread 19.0
Regarding next week. There will most likely be several waves of low pressure that don't track favorably for us. This means baroclinic zone is not favorable for us. There will be high pressure (not super strong) in a good spot for a period of time to give some marginal cold air.
To get a nice overrunning event you need deeper cold in all layers of the atmospheric column and juicy slug of moisture that it way out in front of your cutting low pressure. Otherwise you get a mixed bad that won't add up to much.
Path to snow is one of these storms is able to track off the coast and setup the baroclinic zone to our south and then another follows it with the cold air in place. That would do it for us.
I'm not saying NW and interior folks can't get some accumulation, but it'll be quite modest without some movement of that zone and moisture following it. Not an easy task folks as we have nothing to deflect the lows underneath us. You all here the same broken record this year from us posters and it's a real shame.
To get a nice overrunning event you need deeper cold in all layers of the atmospheric column and juicy slug of moisture that it way out in front of your cutting low pressure. Otherwise you get a mixed bad that won't add up to much.
Path to snow is one of these storms is able to track off the coast and setup the baroclinic zone to our south and then another follows it with the cold air in place. That would do it for us.
I'm not saying NW and interior folks can't get some accumulation, but it'll be quite modest without some movement of that zone and moisture following it. Not an easy task folks as we have nothing to deflect the lows underneath us. You all here the same broken record this year from us posters and it's a real shame.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3901
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
Page 22 of 28 • 1 ... 12 ... 21, 22, 23 ... 28
Page 22 of 28
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|