December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations

Saugerties!

Went out at 5:30 tonight, pouring rain and freezing rain at 33*
Absolutely messy roads and icy conditions.
Many schools are off tomorrow

aiannone wrote:18z HRDPS has the deform band slam west of NYC and then also has another develop over LI. Gives everyone a nice snow event. Let’s hope that happens

I'll sign up for this deal any day................

But I don't think LI will get as share in the goods

Surface low looks to be taking shape.  It's anybody's guess with this as to who gets in those bands.  It will be now-cast for that. Subsidence will probably screw some and give others bountiful snow. But overall, I think Frank's map is a good one.

amugs wrote:Went out at 5:30 tonight, pouring rain and freezing rain at 33*
Absolutely messy roads and icy conditions.
Many schools are off tomorrow

lucky you guys, they are going to pull a nov. last year here I know it, will wait till its snowing bad staying open for school if it does then oh, you can go home and sit in 12 hrs of traffic. We will see what happens but right now its a nasty cold rain. Nice to hear some are cashing in already.

heehaw453 wrote:Surface low looks to be taking shape.  It's anybody's guess with this as to who gets in those bands.  It will be now-cast for that.  Subsidence will probably screw some and give others bountiful snow.  But overall, I think Frank's map is a good one.

I wonder if we can avoid tha tdry slot and even change over earlier? Is this possible?

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Surface low looks to be taking shape.  It's anybody's guess with this as to who gets in those bands.  It will be now-cast for that.  Subsidence will probably screw some and give others bountiful snow.  But overall, I think Frank's map is a good one.

I wonder if we can avoid tha tdry slot and even change over earlier? Is this possible?

The warm air in the mid-levels is probably done advancing. My surface temperature is 33 which is well below what was progged for my area. If the storm wraps up quickly and stays a bit more off shore cold air won't be an issue. If it hugs the coast closely those along the coast will have a much longer time to change over. Dry slots and bands way too difficult for me to predict. Others may have better insight.

26 and heavy sleet now.

Hyde I didn't think that mix line would get to you! They say I may mix for a little while here as well!

jimv45 wrote:Hyde I didn't think that mix line would get to you! They say I may mix for a little while here as well!

I knew it would eventually. Sleet is so damn heavy too and its still coming down. Hopefully you are enough N and W that you stay snow.

Radar shows storm 1 is almost done here.Barely an inch of slop on the ground.NWS had me for 2 to 4 today then 1 to 3 tonight.No way that's happening.Hoping to get under a band tomorrow and maybe squeeze 6 out of this event.We will see!

FYI. 50 degrees down here in Barnegat,NJ (southern ocean county). Warm.

Nevermind. Now 49 degrees. The temps are crashing!!!

When is the transfer supposed to take place? Looks like a dry slot is showing up.

heehaw453 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:Surface low looks to be taking shape.  It's anybody's guess with this as to who gets in those bands.  It will be now-cast for that.  Subsidence will probably screw some and give others bountiful snow.  But overall, I think Frank's map is a good one.

I wonder if we can avoid tha tdry slot and even change over earlier? Is this possible?

The warm air in the mid-levels is probably done advancing.  My surface temperature is 33 which is well below what was progged for my area.  If the storm wraps up quickly and stays a bit more off shore cold air won't be an issue.  If it hugs the coast closely those along the coast will have a much longer time to change over.  Dry slots and bands way too difficult for me to predict.  Others may have better insight.

Images below are 850mb 700mb 500mb respectively. Here is the problem. Right now the 850mb low is well north of 500 and 700mb low dragging in the warm nose. 700and 500 as you can see is still over the Ohio valley. How far south do they track?  700 is import but 850 is equally esp for the coast for temps to crash before the banding moves out.

Time for NAM. At hr 0 already a difference in flatter heights along east coast compared to 18z. We'll see if get another slight shift east at 0z

Took an snow measurement not far from my apartment here in Albany: 9" of snow and counting.

Math23x7 wrote:Took an snow measurement not far from my apartment here in Albany:  9" of snow and counting.

Wow that seems ahead of schedule

aiannone wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:Took an snow measurement not far from my apartment here in Albany:  9" of snow and counting.

Wow that seems ahead of schedule

Yea. The issue will be from a possible dry slot due to an inverted trough, which could last a good chunk of Monday. Although models do have it filling in by tomorrow afternoon.

NAM is slightly east again so far. A little weaker though, have to see how that will affect this run

0z NAM looks to be favoring NENJ, NYC and LI through 27

Interesting run, definitely a tick east and colder, but less precip. 0z NAM last night was a bit off, have to see what RGEM says

BAM! NENJ through LI hit!

00z Nam trying time keep LI in the game.

3k NAM a bit different, precip more expansive on the southern side

3km NAM was even more impressive the banding just kept over the AREA LONGER, SWEET RUN!! my school has no bussing tomorrow but half staff reports at 10am, they so greedy for money if 1 kid comes that matters (and it would only be by drop off), if we work till 3:15 I think staff will be in trouble. I am hoping they call the day tomorrow AM.