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December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:00 am

Radar is starting to explode. Currently a snow/sleet mix in Fairlawn.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:04 am

Light snow in Morris Plains

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Post by lglickman1 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:07 am

Does the location of the current explosion of moisture indicate where the banding may set up? Or is it too soon to tell?

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:07 am

Temps crashing! Already sleet here! Earlier changeover could mean even more snow on top of that banding.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:10 am

@lglickman1 wrote:Does the location of the current explosion of moisture indicate where the banding may set up?  Or is it too soon to tell?

Too soon

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Post by algae888 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:10 am

Radar starting to Blossom and sleet mixing in already here in the Bronx
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:12 am

Love that sleet sound especially when I was expect rain till noon.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:13 am

34* with light rain here. But I should note it was forecast to be about 38/39* this morning so it’s already a few degrees colder than forecast. Once heavier precip starts later this morning I think it will be all snow here.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:13 am

@algae888 wrote:Radar starting to Blossom and sleet mixing in already here in the Bronx
yep giggity! In the Bronx is even more impressive see colder than expected.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:16 am

Looks like a good blossom of moderate to heavy precip is developing right over NYC Bronx and southern Westchester al! And the rain snow line is moving east fairly quickly. I wouldn't be surprised to see snow in the coming hours.
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Post by Grselig on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:21 am

Light snow in Wayne. Began about 8. 33°. School was canceled.
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Post by algae888 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:22 am

Sleet and snow now mixing in very early for this to happen maybe we're going to be surprised in a good way today
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:26 am

Changing to snow hours b4 predicted.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:27 am

@algae888 wrote:Sleet and snow now mixing in very early for this to happen maybe we're going to be surprised in a good way today
I think that may be so al!! Not looking forward to being up in wp. Till 315.
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Post by aiannone on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:38 am

Just got into Manhattan. Rain sleet mix on 50th street
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:47 am

Flemington has been light to moderate snow for the past hour. Cars are covered. Grassy areas are spotty with coverage. Streets and sidewalks still clear.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:53 am

All snow now. Wow so early. I think this a really good sign.
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:56 am

Very fine light snow began at 8 30 now bigger flakes with intensity increasing.31 degrees.Radar filling in nicely for this point of the coastal.Good luck to all, may the bands be with you!!!
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:01 am

500 not quite to the coast yet but diving south of us.  

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 10 500mb_sf


Freezing temps at 925mb diving south and 850's just starting to make it throuth the city and out to LI as well.  Earlier than expected  

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 10 925mb_sf
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 10 850mb_sf


New surface low developing further S&E, although that could still change as the 500 and 700mb low reaches the coast.  It could tuck in further west but where it is now favors a colder soln(near the BM)

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 10 Pmsl

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:02 am

The critical part will start very soon to the evolution of the storm. However, that surface low is not as tucked as progged before.  Allowing cold air to infiltrate much easier hence the colder temps. Coastal folks (northern Ocean Cty on up) are definitely in the game on this IMO.  Very interesting!


Surface Low
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 10 Surfac11


ULL
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 10 Ull11

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:04 am

@heehaw453 wrote:The critical part will start very soon to the evolution of the storm. However, that surface low is not as tucked as progged before.  Allowing cold air to infiltrate much easier hence the colder temps. Coastal folks (northern Ocean Cty on up) are definitely in the game on this IMO.  Very interesting!


Surface Low
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 10 Surfac11


ULL
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 10 Ull11

Great minds heehaw...see above

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:05 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:The critical part will start very soon to the evolution of the storm. However, that surface low is not as tucked as progged before.  Allowing cold air to infiltrate much easier hence the colder temps. Coastal folks (northern Ocean Cty on up) are definitely in the game on this IMO.  Very interesting!


Surface Low
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 10 Surfac11


ULL
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 10 Ull11

Great minds heehaw...see above

LOL! Amazing the timing!

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Post by deadrabbit79 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:09 am

Snowing in White Plains

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:09 am

That's too funny. So in terms of snow amounts does this mean more possibly from nj to NYC north of nyc and now long Island too? How far off is the low from where it was supposed to form?
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Post by Sanchize06 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:10 am

NAM finally joins the party and comes east with all other short range guidance

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