December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Frank mentioned this morning that if the deformation zone was as intense as the models showed it could create subsidence issues either side of it. I think we’re seeing that on radar right now with that heavy band in eastern NJ.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
When I look at a radar loop, it looks like the storm is not moving but dying out as it rotates,LOL.I don't see strengthening at all.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Massive dry slot just formed right over my area. Nothing falling at all presently.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Same here bill been very light few hrs. Looks like I'm in that sinking air. I can't even give a measurement cuz there isn't anything.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Grselig wrote:I like this!
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
233 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019
NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069-072-022030-
Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Bergen-Western
Passaic-Western Union-Western Essex-Eastern Bergen-Eastern
Passaic-Rockland-New York (Manhattan)-
233 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019
...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT HUDSON...PASSAIC...UNION...
BERGEN...ESSEX...ROCKLAND AND NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTIES...
At 231 PM EST, a band of heavy snow was located over Englewood, or
over Bergenfield, moving west at 10 mph. Snowfall rates between 1 to
2 inches per hour will be possible.
Locations impacted include...
New York, Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Elizabeth, Passaic, Bayonne,
Wayne, Hoboken, Plainfield, Bloomfield, Hackensack, Linden,
Bergenfield and Paramus.
Nice! Western Essex, Eastern Morris, and Southern Passaic are getting the business right now.
I have about 2.5" inches in Bloomfield.
Last edited by essexcountypete on Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Snow has ended here.Solid 5 inches but will defer to the trained spotter.Will this start up again later, I can't tell from that radar.Storm looks small and weakening to me.Maybe areas very close to it will get more.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
docstox12 wrote:Snow has ended here.Solid 5 inches but will defer to the trained spotter.Will this start up again later, I can't tell from that radar.Storm looks small and weakening to me.Maybe areas very close to it will get more.
Yeah I really don’t know. The radar now bears no resemblance to what the models showed last night and this morning, which was essentially the precip shield expanding over all of NJ as the storm strengthened off the coast with heavy bands embedded. Right now the radar is shrinking in coverage except that one heavy band across eastern NJ. Soooooo your guess as good as mine on whether more is to come.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Even the heavy band is shrinking on the radar. Not a good look.
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
I am giving what I believe to be my final measurement (though that could change, but by what you guys are saying is unlikely) on a cold car not the ground 0.5.....that is all I have to say. Oh and its rain and sleet now too, I really can't win.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
The column is vertically stacked now and storm has consolidated. That is the surface, 850mb and 700mb are on top of each other. If it's going to intensify on the surface, I'd say now is the time. The 500mb ULL has moved off the coast as well.
Had this occurred 150 miles south and 7 degrees colder, then another ballgame.
Had this occurred 150 miles south and 7 degrees colder, then another ballgame.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
The only ray of hope I see on the radar is that some areas of precipitation are firing up over South Jersey which was dry as a bone all day. Maybe that’s a sign of backfilling starting up again. Or maybe I’m just too optimistic. Lol. We shall see.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
32 and steady light/mod snow. 5 inches so far and expecting another 3-5 before it ends early morning Tuesday.
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
I'm actually seeing breaks in cloud cover and peeks of blue skies.
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
heehaw453 wrote:The column is vertically stacked now and storm has consolidated. That is the surface, 850mb and 700mb are on top of each other. If it's going to intensify on the surface, I'd say now is the time. The 500mb ULL has moved off the coast as well.
Had this occurred 150 miles south and 7 degrees colder, then another ballgame.
Yep, Miller B roulette.
Give me a solid Miller A heading right up the coast like March 1993 or December 2010.I'm happy with what I got here in this 2 day event, close to 6 inches.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Looks like we might get some sun haha
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Snowing hard in central Suffolk county.
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Don’t know what the rest of the evening holds but I know this: I’m tired of the Miller B’s of the last two years. Oh, my kingdom for a Miller A. Lol
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
docstox12 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:The column is vertically stacked now and storm has consolidated. That is the surface, 850mb and 700mb are on top of each other. If it's going to intensify on the surface, I'd say now is the time. The 500mb ULL has moved off the coast as well.
Had this occurred 150 miles south and 7 degrees colder, then another ballgame.
Yep, Miller B roulette.
Give me a solid Miller A heading right up the coast like March 1993 or December 2010.I'm happy with what I got here in this 2 day event, close to 6 inches.
Ditto. Great minds think alike. Lol.
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frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Billg I see that too. TWC future cast says we’re ALL good to go in another hour or 2, so let’s try and stay positive! Lol!
I’m wishcasting that a heavy band is going swing around Ll into NYC (and points a little N and W) and then slam into NNj and ENJ...around 8 or 9 pm.
I’m wishcasting that a heavy band is going swing around Ll into NYC (and points a little N and W) and then slam into NNj and ENJ...around 8 or 9 pm.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Literally no juice with this storm. H5 occluded (closed off) days ago and there was not any new energy injected into this storm at any point once it got to the coast. And we're relying on an inverted trough to deliver widespread snow. Always a recipe for disaster.
Let's see if the radar decides to explode again at any point. If it does it better be soon...
Let's see if the radar decides to explode again at any point. If it does it better be soon...
_________________
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
I'm back home from work after they closed for the day. I have 2.5" and its still snowing at a good clip.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
i know how u feel here in The Bronx not even a coating of snow was hoping for at least for 3 inches but I doubt it I miss the good old winters give another winter of 95-96 then we will be happyjmanley32 wrote:I am giving what I believe to be my final measurement (though that could change, but by what you guys are saying is unlikely) on a cold car not the ground 0.5.....that is all I have to say. Oh and its rain and sleet now too, I really can't win.
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Here is the 18z NAM valid for 4pm. 20 minutes from now. It shows snow falling across EPA, SNY, WNJ, etc. Yet, compare it versus the radar. Uhhhh
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:Literally no juice with this storm. H5 occluded (closed off) days ago and there was not any new energy injected into this storm at any point once it got to the coast. And we're relying on an inverted trough to deliver widespread snow. Always a recipe for disaster.
Let's see if the radar decides to explode again at any point. If it does it better be soon...
Good point, Frank, because this storm never seemed to bomb out right when it hit the coast.I'm a big radar guy in these Miller B scenarios and had a bad feeling about it .Just glad I got what I have in the LHV.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:Here is the 18z NAM valid for 4pm. 20 minutes from now. It shows snow falling across EPA, SNY, WNJ, etc. Yet, compare it versus the radar. Uhhhh
The NAM got the low placement right and that precip up past LI into NJ, but after that just busted out.
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