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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:15 pm

amugs wrote:I know we are discounting Sun -Mon storm - not any confluence to work with here with the spread of the ens are pretty interesting - not saying we get anything but it is interesting here you go

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 B7aqEMdIcAAVIfy

MADONNE Jan 22 and beyond or forward

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 GZ_PN_216_0000

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 GZ_PN_240_0000

MOTHER OF PEARL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 Test8

Looking at where a lot of those LP's are located  would put the average right near the Benchmark.  Not good enough for snow???????

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:53 pm

Syosnow94, If it makes you feel any better, two of the 51 EURO ensemble members have (at least by 10:1 ratio standards) over 6" of snow for CPK in regards to the Sunday to Monday. Of course I still think that it is mainly rain for us...

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:58 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Syosnow94, If it makes you feel any better, two of the 51 EURO ensemble members have (at least by 10:1 ratio standards) over 6" of snow for CPK in regards to the Sunday to Monday.  Of course I still think that it is mainly rain for us...

Thanks buddy......"so you're saying there's a chance" LONG LIVE FROZEN CUP!!!!!!!!!

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:02 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Syosnow94, If it makes you feel any better, two of the 51 EURO ensemble members have (at least by 10:1 ratio standards) over 6" of snow for CPK in regards to the Sunday to Monday.  Of course I still think that it is mainly rain for us...

Thanks buddy......"so you're saying there's a chance"  LONG LIVE FROZEN CUP!!!!!!!!!  

I miss Frozen Cup! Sad

And if you're gonna be at Rollin Greens any time in the near future, you can let me know (or even private message me). There are some charts/graphs that I never got around to showing you at the meetup that you may find interesting.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:19 pm

Mugs and Frank Madonne is right with the Euro, and GFS ensembles not bad either. I still put my faith in Euro until new GFS proves itself. Mugs yeah some of the LP are very strong for sunday, but unlikely to be snow. If you really want a tickle look at the 15 day snow total ensembles for the Euro wowza.
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:27 pm

UMM what the hell are we looking at there - 10 days away looks great BUT.- SOB GFS GFS - we have a storm coming in off the heels of Sun-Mon storm peeps Wed - SYOSNOW !!!!!!!!!!

Pattern changing quickly and MJO going to phase 8 then hopefully uno
A nice little clipper

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 Page-40
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f150

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f153

Oh boy DOC, CP and us NNJ folks - could be the first plowable one incoming for the 2015 winter season

Trend south you little bugger - that SUN/MON forms a 50/50 low if it progs stronger than the entire NYC area gets in on the action


Last edited by amugs on Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:32 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:29 pm

DT made a post today about the potential January 23rd storm and he said that at H5 there is no -NAO which is hostile for a significant east coast snowstorm. Other features such as the ridge on the west coast and the southern low of Texas, however, are in favorable positions.

I asked Paul Kocin today about how much he takes teleconnections into consideration and he said that while a -NAO may be preferred, some of the well known cases had a +NAO during the storm.

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:33 pm

Math23x7 wrote:DT made a post today about the potential January 23rd storm and he said that at H5 there is no -NAO which is hostile for a significant east coast snowstorm.  Other features such as the ridge on the west coast and the southern low of Texas, however, are in favorable positions.  

I asked Paul Kocin today about how much he takes teleconnections into consideration and he said that while a -NAO may be preferred, some of the well known cases had a +NAO during the storm.

Yes cause there is something called a 50/50 low, Uber block as well - DT sheesh

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:35 pm

amugs wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:DT made a post today about the potential January 23rd storm and he said that at H5 there is no -NAO which is hostile for a significant east coast snowstorm.  Other features such as the ridge on the west coast and the southern low of Texas, however, are in favorable positions.  

I asked Paul Kocin today about how much he takes teleconnections into consideration and he said that while a -NAO may be preferred, some of the well known cases had a +NAO during the storm.

Yes cause there is something called a 50/50 low, Uber block as well - DT sheesh

DT mentioned that there is somewhat of a 50/50 low for next week but it's weak and iffy.

Here is his post:

https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/555841772828782592


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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:47 pm

18z gfs has 6 to 12 well inland on 21st. I sure hope that phase happens sooner and more south. It looks anyways like a phase happens there. Little to nothing for coast.
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:04 pm

jmanley32 wrote:18z gfs has 6 to 12 well inland on 21st. I sure hope that phase happens sooner and more south. It looks anyways like a phase happens there. Little to nothing for coast.

Central NY, LHV and EPA cash in on this one and NWNJ and NNJ get in one the action

We hope and you at the coast and LI need to hop t he SUN/MON storms bombs out as it heads NNE and forms a stout 50/50 low - plenty of cold air to work with here.

Many lobes/vorts after the 23-24th storm on the GFS

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:06 pm

The 18Z GFS suppresses the 1/23 storm well to out south. Not even Quietace gets any snow from it.

However, check out the 8-14 day temperature outlook that the CPC posted today:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

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Post by Guest Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:07 pm

ENGLISH PLEASE. I've been making chili and drinking "vino" all afternoon. Someone translate.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:15 pm

Here's the translation sounds like it's north no it's south wait way south so who knows
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:21 pm

Mugs- I'm not yet convinced the MJO goes into phase 8. We're in phase 7 now and we should be here probably until the 22nd storm. That storm is looking more and more interesting by the day. Might have a blog out this weekend.

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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:29 pm

this is impressive...
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 Ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11
have to also watch the 21st clipper. as I stated last night if sunday system is weaker than this clipper has potential, pattern getting ripe and we have to watch for storms to pop up out of nowhere.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:16 pm

Yeah al I believe I posted on the euro earlier me and frank also pointed out the ensembles look nice too. Forget 18z gfs for 23rd did same thing yesterday only to show it again for the 00z. Maybe mugs is right about the 18z
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:20 pm

Wow if frank puts out a blog on a system 4 to 5 days out u know it peaking his interest. Hope to see ur thoughts then.
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:45 pm

Math23x7 wrote:The 18Z GFS suppresses the 1/23 storm well to out south.  Not even Quietace gets any snow from it.  

However, check out the 8-14 day temperature outlook that the CPC posted today:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Mike and everyone else strong arctic air incoming week of 25th not suppression depression type but lows could hit 0 or negative if we have some snow on the ground for NYC! Doc and CP -10's possibly.

Here we go MJO phase 7 into 8 then 1 looks to be -AO AND -NAO incoming lets take advantage

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Mugs- I'm not yet convinced the MJO goes into phase 8. We're in phase 7 now and we should be here probably until the 22nd storm. That storm is looking more and more interesting by the day. Might have a blog out this weekend.

Frank not saying for this weekend storm but I believe over the next 7 days we get there so lets say by next weekend.

MLK storms have historically been of wintry interests as long as I can recall then one we all talk about is the 1994 one could wave have a repeat? Only time will tell but I said this yesterday lets not chase next weekend but take these next two to track.

At least we have something of interest to track here no??

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:58 pm

I really like these N branch features that deepen as they come through the Ohio Valley . Don`t sleep on that one . If you can dig it further S into the Tenn valley then you are talking OBX to CC. That's not impossible . We do best when we rally inside 5 days with these systems , not when we sit and wait on day 8 thru 10
These mid range systems like to blow up - ummm remember last winter, 2013 2nd half, 2010 2004 these clippers can and do over perform when they can drop South period!

Whatever is behind will depend on it`s wave spacing with Wed System

Just this weather weenies two cents

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:00 pm

Wednesdays system nice hits

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:57 pm

00z GFS now even further off the coast with the Sunday storm. Pretty sure this is a dead threat given the way H5 looks. Not going to rule out some rain though, especially for LI.

By the time the mid level energy reaches the coast, the frontal boundary stalled off our coast is too far east.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f69

Main storm will be between 22nd-25th. Will have a blog up this weekend.

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Post by Snow88 Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:20 pm

Not a bad look on the GFS in regards to the clipper. Redevelops further south than the 18z.
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Post by Snow88 Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:32 pm

Next week looks really interesting with a lot of energy running around
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