Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
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Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
I have work all day tomorrow so I am forced to make a final map now. This forecast is very tough. One thing I noticed with the higher resolution models is they had the low pressure system follow the area of convection to its NE quadrant. To me, that is a form of convective feedback. EURO did tick slightly east, but the dynamics at play with the jet streaks just overwhelm the storm in my opinion. I went down slightly from 1st call, especially for western areas. Take note of the dotted yellow lines. Those located inside that circle could see locally higher amounts than what my call says. It all depends on the banding, and the exact track of the storm. For example, NYC could see 24+ inches of snow instead of the max of 22 I have. The EURO would suggest that. We'll see how this plays out. It should be a great one to track. Notice timing (NYC Metro) is in the upper right of map. Enjoy the storm everyone and stay safe.
No matter what, blizzard conditions can be expected early Tuesday morning through early afternoon where warnings are posted. The wind has been the one constant on the models. Sustained between 25-35mph with gusts as high as 60 mph for NYC. 70+ mph over LI. This could lead to power outages. PREPARE FOR THAT. White out conditions leading to reduced visibility will be a concern. Snowfall rates will be between 2 to as much as 5 inches PER HOUR in some of the heavier banding. There WILL be thunder-snow, especially out on LI and NE.
I'll create an observations thread when I get home. Or if someone on staff can do it around 4-5pm, that would be great. Thank you!
No matter what, blizzard conditions can be expected early Tuesday morning through early afternoon where warnings are posted. The wind has been the one constant on the models. Sustained between 25-35mph with gusts as high as 60 mph for NYC. 70+ mph over LI. This could lead to power outages. PREPARE FOR THAT. White out conditions leading to reduced visibility will be a concern. Snowfall rates will be between 2 to as much as 5 inches PER HOUR in some of the heavier banding. There WILL be thunder-snow, especially out on LI and NE.
I'll create an observations thread when I get home. Or if someone on staff can do it around 4-5pm, that would be great. Thank you!
_________________
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
frank nice map. and thanks for all the hard work
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Great job kid. Hope this pans out. seems like a nice compromise between better performing EURO and American models. Where the 12 to 22 line and 24+ line meet goes right through my house.
Guest- Guest
Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
That was pretty much what I was thinking too, Frank, except my numbers reflect more of the "eastern" guidance, so they're further east and somewhat lower. Hopefully I wake to improvements lol Great work and great fun, my man!!! Btw, how do you draw those maps? I'd like to try to make a few maps lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Great Frank i will take 22, but I still stand that I think euro totals are coming but your the best here so i will trust in you. I have a feeling some will be in for a surprise in either direction.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Know whats funny the one time frank calls for high winds in NYC the euro doesnt show that lol, go figure
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Bullseye most snow in Franks latest snow map eastern nassau western suffolk county
Puff the magic dragon- Posts : 11
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
I heard the nam is west
Yschiff- Posts : 139
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Join date : 2014-01-04
Location : Far Rockaway New York
Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Holy fn shot NAM IS EURO OF 12Z RUNS NAM IS EURO IF 12Z RUN EPIC SNOW BROUGHT IT BACK WEST CAVING TO EURO BIG IMO
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Taking lp nnw direction maybe a tad overdone but Frank's original map verifies on this wtf. We see gfs do a jog west at 6z then it is just crazy
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Jesus h I know it over does the qpf but Christ almighty the evolution is euro of 12z and 0 z last night - gfs better come around at 6z or else ......
showing insane amounts for nyc
this is within its time frame of 24 hrs before the big show
showing insane amounts for nyc
this is within its time frame of 24 hrs before the big show
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
The nam crushes nyc
Yschiff- Posts : 139
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Location : Far Rockaway New York
Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
[quote="Yschiff"]The nam crushes nyc
[/quote
30+ inchest let me pull the clown map but a GREAT trend back my god BD 2???
[/quote
30+ inchest let me pull the clown map but a GREAT trend back my god BD 2???
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Slowed down the lp to a crawl heights raises beautifully our in front closed off over Delmarva and went east then retrograde back wnw like a loop mother of mercy this I hope is a trend hey it did it at 0z this is the off hour let's hope its not the stupid nam bombed this bad boy out to 970 over LI and snowed for 35 hrs nyc metro
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
6z rgem then gfs and we see what is what
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Is that map including Ratios?
Yschiff- Posts : 139
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Location : Far Rockaway New York
Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Al by myself don't wanna be all by myself ........
Wake up
Let me go back to sleep wake up in T - 2 hours
Wake up
Let me go back to sleep wake up in T - 2 hours
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
Yschiff wrote:Is that map including Ratios?
No that is the sick part but like I said qpf overdone the key is the evolution of the h5 so fing important and it showed almost bettee than euro at h5 from 0z last night and 12 z today picking up on energy and clipper position
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
just woke up and bam nam goes with euro. said this would happen after euro run nam was close last night.amugs wrote:Al by myself don't wanna be all by myself ........
Wake up
Let me go back to sleep wake up in T - 2 hours
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
That nam crushes me with 2 ft here on coast
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
12:1 ratios calculated in map so it is pretty straight up maybe a few more inches but nothing more
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
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Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
yes skins crushes a lot of us. 2.5" qpf. wow this is really fun tracking this. if you like agita that is.lolskinsfan1177 wrote:That nam crushes me with 2 ft here on coast
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
algae888 wrote:just woke up and bam nam goes with euro. said this would happen after euro run nam was close last night.amugs wrote:Al by myself don't wanna be all by myself ........
Wake up
Let me go back to sleep wake up in T - 2 hours
Pais an u heard me the Al squared team moderating the graveyard shift and hopefully we have a wonderful surprise come 6 run!
Upton dropped us to18-24 boo hoo still a hecs and afree the first part of winter we take it
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15088
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Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
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Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map
mugs that's 30+" for nyc
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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