January 2020 Observations and Discussion

weatherwatchermom wrote:STILL SNOWING 1/2 INCH SO FAR

nice!

Coating of snow Mainly on car tops and grass

Light snow, 28 degrees, 1 inch OTG.Road snow covered.Nice to see it white again.

Looks like we torch for Saturday, NWS saying 60 degrees here.

1/2” on my deck this morning.  Very pretty!

Same here, Doc. About an inch. I'm a do-bee again. Last night the wind was biting and the cold could be felt. The wind is still 13 mph now and 28 degrees.

SNOW!!!

Saturday temps and Sunday look to be in the 50 range Sat and Sun in the high 50's with....rain.

1/2 inch on colder surfaces. At least I avoided the January shutout. Hoping for a westward trend with the next event on Tuesday night.

.5" for my birthday! Only stuck to colder surfaces, streets are clear. Anniversary of the great 1996 blizzard, which was an awesome birthday present for me 24 years ago!

Happy birthday Janet!!! Hope you have a great day

Lookout for another burst of snow tomorrow afternoon, especially for NYC S&E. Possibly up to 2 inches in some spots

0.8 inches overnight, bringing the seasonal total to 15.6

At least I won't live to see the first snow less January in recorded history.

Dunnzoo wrote:.5" for my birthday! Only stuck to colder surfaces, streets are clear. Anniversary of the great 1996 blizzard, which was an awesome birthday present for me 24 years ago!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY JANET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Talk about a gradient pattern jesus!! IF GFS is right we could have a icy conditions 75 miles N and NW of NYC whilst NYC sits at 60* and rains.



NE Ice Storm potential part 2


Hell of a way to run a torch!!
Need that 1039 HP to nose a bit more and we may get a cold air drain for some mix in the northern region of our board.

Happy birthday, Janet.

Black is back.

Snow has melted on blacktop

This is pretty wild for you weather lovers look at this gradient
19* in Albany region
63* in NYC

IF TRUE of course

Woke up to 32* with a coating to 1/2” of snow on colder surfaces this morning. Not a big deal but made the landscape look nice and more wintry at least.

amugs wrote:This is pretty wild for you weather lovers look at this gradient
19* in Albany region
63* in NYC

IF TRUE of course

The northern most extent of the warmth vacillates from run to run. It could very well be in the upper 40's in NYC instead of the 60's models are showing. I've seen too many times models over do the warmth with respect to duration and temperatures.

My guess is 60's make it to Mason Dixon Line and then cools off from there.

Dunnzoo wrote:.5" for my birthday! Only stuck to colder surfaces, streets are clear. Anniversary of the great 1996 blizzard, which was an awesome birthday present for me 24 years ago!

Happy Birthday!

Regarding tomorrow night's event.  Guidance seems to tuck the surface low closer to the coast.  The flow being progressive the low gets pushed ENE pretty quickly.  

However, the trough is somewhat negative.  I believe you'd get moisture thrown back a bit further NW than what this depicts.  Again, surface temps will be the biggest issue for the coast.

heehaw453 wrote:Regarding tomorrow night's event.  Guidance seems to tuck the surface low closer to the coast.  The flow being progressive the low gets pushed ENE pretty quickly.  

However, the trough is somewhat negative.  I believe you'd get moisture thrown back a bit further NW than what this depicts.  Again, surface temps will be the biggest issue for the coast.

Basically all the models seem to be shunting the precipitation East after hour 36 due to the shortwave over the Great Lakes acting as a kicker,all the models except for the UK which tries to phase that short-wave in and gives a nice hit from the city east. Not many times you see a benchmark track and no defamation band on the western side

Models definitely showing more of a DCA-BWI special (2-4") on this if their surface temps cooperate.  The low is just strung out until it hits the coast and then organizes and races ENE.  Any kind of slowing the atmospheric flow and this would be really interesting.  My guess is c-1" for most taking into account surface temps and the precip field.

No blocking or 50/50 to help us out.  Even Atlantic ridge is far out.

That's really tucked.  Each successive run low is a bit more tucked and still 30 hours out.  Still races ENE, but the higher that low gets up the coast the more precip is thrown back NW. Maybe it winds up going over Cape May when this solution finally settles on the truth.

18Z GFS

Nam coming more NW this run...

Nam coming more NW this run...

nutleyblizzard wrote:Nam coming more NW this run...

That's worth repeating

SREFS for fun here tomorrow night??

The 6z nam just came Way West 2 to 4 in for the city and Long Island

The trend has been been clear with the NAM and other guidance.  Push the precip a tick further north with each successive run. I would call 2-4" IMBY a HUGE win, but thinking more like 1-3" mostly on colder surfaces.

Precip is mostly after dark and that makes a sig difference even in January on a very marginal surface.




The green blob touches the coast line almost and most likely where surface low will be.