Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
+31
brownie
Dis2cruise
Joe Snow
sabamfa
Nyi1058
gigs68
DAYBLAZER
Sanchize06
docstox12
essexcountypete
larryrock72
weatherwatchermom
aiannone
hyde345
frank 638
skinsfan1177
oldtimer
phil155
Dunnzoo
Grselig
nutleyblizzard
GreyBeard
SoulSingMG
sroc4
rb924119
mwilli
dkodgis
Frank_Wx
amugs
Quietace
jmanley32
35 posters
Page 14 of 25
Page 14 of 25 • 1 ... 8 ... 13, 14, 15 ... 19 ... 25
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Wow I think 00z HMON is pretty much a wcs with this one 985mb cat 1 into central long Island staying just off the coast from delmarva north giving him less time to weaken. Wow we get battered in that run. It's much faster than 18z too. The 11pm cone placement dot is also directly where hmon makes landfall and has been leading me to wonder if they are leaning heavily on that model.
Update: HWRF is well inland but still packs a big punch with heave heavy rains and what looks be about high end TS force winds, last frame hr 93 is literally over westchester NY, dead center.
HWRF para (what is that?) is nearly identical to HMON with a 985mb cat 1 into LI, but hits pretty much all of us. Seems like the hurricane models have been very consistant unlike the regular models.
Update: HWRF is well inland but still packs a big punch with heave heavy rains and what looks be about high end TS force winds, last frame hr 93 is literally over westchester NY, dead center.
HWRF para (what is that?) is nearly identical to HMON with a 985mb cat 1 into LI, but hits pretty much all of us. Seems like the hurricane models have been very consistant unlike the regular models.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
2:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 1
Location: 23.5°N 76.7°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Check this out, Euro ensembles with wind levels at certain pts. these do not look good for us some are cat 1 and mid level at that. You can zoom in and out its really cool.
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/799-w-396-n/2020073112-240.html
00z euro also does not make landfall on FL oh boy.
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/799-w-396-n/2020073112-240.html
00z euro also does not make landfall on FL oh boy.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
jmanley32 wrote:Wow I think 00z HMON is pretty much a wcs with this one 985mb cat 1 into central long Island staying just off the coast from delmarva north giving him less time to weaken. Wow we get battered in that run. It's much faster than 18z too. The 11pm cone placement dot is also directly where hmon makes landfall and has been leading me to wonder if they are leaning heavily on that model.
Update: HWRF is well inland but still packs a big punch with heave heavy rains and what looks be about high end TS force winds, last frame hr 93 is literally over westchester NY, dead center.
HWRF para (what is that?) is nearly identical to HMON with a 985mb cat 1 into LI, but hits pretty much all of us. Seems like the hurricane models have been very consistant unlike the regular models.
Yeah the HMON was noticeably east of it's 18z which allows for strengthening. That today will be the biggest thing to look for. If it stays just enough offshore of Florida, could be a cat 1 up here compared to a tropical storm
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1041
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
currently the storms looks to be a bit more ragged and that it has begun to take on more of a northerly movement. I could be wrong but just looking at the ir over at tt and that is how it looked to me but I am far from a pro
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 475
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
It looks like rain and flooding will be the primary concern. Current guidance shows enough land interaction so that it’s a weak tropical storm or depression by the time it’s at our latitude. But man, 3-4+ inches of rain in flood prone NNJ is...not great.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
thank you for the update frank . As well as all ofFrank_Wx wrote:It looks like rain and flooding will be the primary concern. Current guidance shows enough land interaction so that it’s a weak tropical storm or depression by the time it’s at our latitude. But man, 3-4+ inches of rain in flood prone NNJ is...not great.
You guys that are tracking this . Living on Long Island and Having a summer family home
In Montauk has me very concerned . Appreciate any updates you guys come across .
Nyi1058- Posts : 86
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-12-04
Age : 49
Location : Port Jefferson Long Island
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
really? Even though the wind prog for the pt up here is 65mph storm? So your cut that in half. I really am in the epicenter of rain 3 to 5 it looks likeFrank_Wx wrote:It looks like rain and flooding will be the primary concern. Current guidance shows enough land interaction so that it’s a weak tropical storm or depression by the time it’s at our latitude. But man, 3-4+ inches of rain in flood prone NNJ is...not great.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Current cone, seems to have shifted a tiny bit to the east, not sure why models continue to be pretty far west but not far off from the landfall in NI it shows as a 60mph TS.
rain is certainly going tobe a problem 4-6 inches yikes, any wind we may see is go be compounded by muddy ground. Though its been so dry most may run off.
HWRF is impressive 987mb:
HMON is also impressive a bit more offshore, 987mb, insane rain and moderate to high end TS wind.
rain is certainly going tobe a problem 4-6 inches yikes, any wind we may see is go be compounded by muddy ground. Though its been so dry most may run off.
HWRF is impressive 987mb:
HMON is also impressive a bit more offshore, 987mb, insane rain and moderate to high end TS wind.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Reading he is pretty ragged right now and i misspoke the point on cone is now 60mph. GFS and Euro on are on the weak end 1002mb or so so Frank if you go by the global models yeah he would be just a rain maker but RB said he preferred the hurricane models on intensity and track, so not sure if he still feels that way. Ray any updates?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
When will there be a better idea on timing and impacts for NNJ, particularly Morris County? Thinking of possibly letting my staff work from home depending on what is going to happen.
sabamfa- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 246
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-11-05
Age : 37
Location : Wayne, NJ
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Probably tomorrow or Monday as he gets closer to the EC. As of right now they have him between a 60mph ts and 50 mph ts on its path by the area. Subject to change of course in either direction. He has weakened to barely a hurricane and looks miserable on sattelite but NHC says he still has a decent structure surprisingly. Doubt they will need to go home early heavy rain and potentially strong winds but rain mainly the biggest impact with wpc currently showing 4 to 6 inches in a fairly short period.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
He actually looks much better on sattelite hi res than infrared. You can clearly see the spin he is fairly well organized.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
jmanley32 wrote:Probably tomorrow or Monday as he gets closer to the EC. As of right now they have him between a 60mph ts and 50 mph ts on its path by the area. Subject to change of course in either direction. He has weakened to barely a hurricane and looks miserable on sattelite but NHC says he still has a decent structure surprisingly. Doubt they will need to go home early heavy rain and potentially strong winds but rain mainly the biggest impact with wpc currently showing 4 to 6 inches in a fairly short period.
Yeah, my biggest concern is the heavy rain. Office is located off RT 287 in NJ, in a very flood prone area on 287. Don’t want people stuck having to try to find alternate ways home. 287 would definitely not be an option in that much rain in a short period and everyone needs to use it.
sabamfa- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 246
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-11-05
Age : 37
Location : Wayne, NJ
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Wow hh aren't finding but depression winds. He is completely decoupled and looks like he go be dead. Mega fail by all models and nhc except cmc!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
He is completely decoupled likely the shear and winds are still there but dissipating a lot there's still very good low level spin so he has a chance if convection can start to refire. Otherwise this is a very unexpected turn events though not completely impossible.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
70mph ts expected to restrengthen overnight. Slowed to 10mph that will also have big implications if he avoids Florida. Could gain a lot but this prolly pushes any impacts out till Thursday now ugh. This is turning into a 7 to 10 day tracking.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Looks like some convection is starting to fire but the storm does not look healthy overall. Will be very interesting to see how it develops and where it goes as none of the models( that I am aware of) saw it degrade like it did today.
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 475
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Cone has zeroed in on a very close pass to nj and looks like a landfall along long Island is possible now pronged be 60moh ts up here.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
I think if he misses FL will be his best shot at developing more but will have turn very soon. Winfield is tiny now. But looks as goes up coast it grows a lot.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
You are all over the board on this one. In the past 1/2 hour you have it completely decoupled and dead-a Mega fail as you put it,then it's completely decoupled. But wait,then the winds are 70 mph with restrengthening overnight, to now a landfall on long island with ts force winds of 60 mph? You seem to be trying to judge this thing minute by minute, and every minute it goes from one extreme to the other.
GreyBeard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 725
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : eastern nassau county
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
lol ok ur right well it's all true it is decoupled and I'm very surprised they kept it a strong ts judging by recon. And as I posted the 5pm update came in and it confirmed and discussion showed still a 60mph ts at this latitude early week. Lots will change I will try to temper my posts. LolGreyBeard wrote:You are all over the board on this one. In the past 1/2 hour you have it completely decoupled and dead-a Mega fail as you put it,then it's completely decoupled. But wait,then the winds are 70 mph with restrengthening overnight, to now a landfall on long island with ts force winds of 60 mph? You seem to be trying to judge this thing minute by minute, and every minute it goes from one extreme to the other.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
I see that we will have to wait and see. NHC did say a restrengthen overnight is likely.phil155 wrote:Looks like some convection is starting to fire but the storm does not look healthy overall. Will be very interesting to see how it develops and where it goes as none of the models( that I am aware of) saw it degrade like it did today.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
I've been watching everybodys ' favorite TWC just because they have been reporting from Ft. Lauderdale, where my son lives.But you are right, according to them it presently isn't all that organized yet. They are looking for the thunderstorms to wrap around the center,which isn't happening just yet. But there is plenty of warm open water to give it some strength.We'll see how things develop.
Take a break. You've been on this thing all hours of the day and night from what I can see.
Take a break. You've been on this thing all hours of the day and night from what I can see.
GreyBeard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 725
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : eastern nassau county
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
phil155 wrote:Looks like some convection is starting to fire but the storm does not look healthy overall. Will be very interesting to see how it develops and where it goes as none of the models( that I am aware of) saw it degrade like it did today.
The eye passed over the heart of Andros island. Combined with the shear and dry air it quickly weakened it a bit. It should restrengthen a little now that the center is on the other side. And you are def correct in that the convection has returned on the north side of the low level center.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir
You can see just how exposed the low level center was. Almost no convection over the top of the LLC. If the convection can recenter at least somewhat over top it will restrengthen some again.
I would just like to say models DID tip off that it would likely weaken if you new where to look. Again dry air and shear were always there in the models.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8331
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
bored lol love tropical.season but I'll stop post his every move lol.GreyBeard wrote:I've been watching everybodys ' favorite TWC just because they have been reporting from Ft. Lauderdale, where my son lives.But you are right, according to them it presently isn't all that organized yet. They are looking for the thunderstorms to wrap around the center,which isn't happening just yet. But there is plenty of warm open water to give it some strength.We'll see how things develop.
Take a break. You've been on this thing all hours of the day and night from what I can see.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Page 14 of 25 • 1 ... 8 ... 13, 14, 15 ... 19 ... 25
Page 14 of 25
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|