Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

heehaw453 wrote:Look at the tilt of the trough on this latest GFS.  That kind of tilt is basically throwing a bucket of water over the land mass after it's been filled up in the Atlantic.  Big storm as shown and GFS is coming around to that. And no I'm not paying one bit of attention to GFS thermal profiles right now.  I'm just trying to see what it's doing at the 500 mb.  

What you are seeing is uncanny model agreement on a major EC storm at D5+.  Details obviously are not known...

18Z GFS

heehaw453 wrote:Look at the tilt of the trough on this latest GFS.  That kind of tilt is basically throwing a bucket of water over the land mass after it's been filled up in the Atlantic.  Big storm as shown and GFS is coming around to that. And no I'm not paying one bit of attention to GFS thermal profiles right now.  I'm just trying to see what it's doing at the 500 mb.  

What you are seeing is uncanny model agreement on a major EC storm at D5+.  Details obviously are not known...

18Z GFS

Frank_Wx wrote:One thing I’ve noticed is how our last couple of storms and the upcoming one all had a transfer to the coast. The problem being these transfers are happening far too late and with not enough cold air. When the -NAO acts alone without support from the Pacific, you get these nickel and dime events that models can’t get right until inside 48 hours.

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:One thing I’ve noticed is how our last couple of storms and the upcoming one all had a transfer to the coast. The problem being these transfers are happening far too late and with not enough cold air. When the -NAO acts alone without support from the Pacific, you get these nickel and dime events that models can’t get right until inside 48 hours.

Agreed.  I think an important aspect is if the ULL energy closing off before hitting the coast.  If it does, then it'll probably catch up to the surface and 850/700 and vertically stack.  At that point it's probably a coastal crawler right up to the Canadian Maritimes.  If not and the ULL is ragged and disjointed from the other layers then it's going to be a modest to maybe moderate event IMO.  With the PNA going + in conjunction with a good antecedent air mass it gives us a fighting chance.  Fun to track at least!

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:One thing I’ve noticed is how our last couple of storms and the upcoming one all had a transfer to the coast. The problem being these transfers are happening far too late and with not enough cold air. When the -NAO acts alone without support from the Pacific, you get these nickel and dime events that models can’t get right until inside 48 hours.

Agreed.  I think an important aspect is if the ULL energy closing off before hitting the coast.  If it does, then it'll probably catch up to the surface and 850/700 and vertically stack.  At that point it's probably a coastal crawler right up to the Canadian Maritimes.  If not and the ULL is ragged and disjointed from the other layers then it's going to be a modest to maybe moderate event IMO.  With the PNA going + in conjunction with a good antecedent air mass it gives us a fighting chance.  Fun to track at least!

The spacing between the system that will pass to our south tomorrow and this threat is much better. It at least allows room for our heights to increase out in front. That was a major detriment to tomorrow’s system.  The system that passed overnight and tomorrow’s system were too close. As last nights system amplifies off the coast it’s close proximity to the next one combined with some of the other factors I prev outlined to the north, didn’t allow heights to raise along the coast for tomorrow’s system to come up. Regarding The system that happened yesterday and overnight the main issue in preventing a more wide spread light to moderate event for our coverage area was like Frank said zero cooperation with the PAC. Such a flat flow from the PAC jet killed us. But heehaw like you said while I wouldn’t exactly call it a true +PNa the strength of the strong negative PNA is relaxing towards a more neutral state making it “more positive” relatively speaking. Same with the EPO. While it won’t be truly negative it too is relaxing towards a neutral state “more negative” relatively speaking. NAO still negative but also relaxing a bit.

With the space out in front of this system I think an overly amped system and a closed500mb low that gets too far N&W is also something to concern ourselves with as much as a closing off too late again.  Esp because the NAO region is relaxing.

The trend seems to be That the main energy seems to be under modeled in the medium range. Hopefully there’s enough relaxation in the PNA and EPO regions, and still enough resistance in the NAO and AO regions that we achieve baby bear, or at least close to it and not an overly amped system that cuts where the majority of us get the slop again.

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went all MADONNE on us. Main difference from previous run is it's slower to develop thanks to a slightly more amplified western ridge and energy holding on the backside of the trough

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went all MADONNE on us. Main difference from previous run is it's slower to develop thanks to a slightly more amplified western ridge and energy holding on the backside of the trough

My observation on that run is I want to see the ULL slide underneath us around Ocean City MD.  I don't care for where the GFS has it placed.

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went all MADONNE on us. Main difference from previous run is it's slower to develop thanks to a slightly more amplified western ridge and energy holding on the backside of the trough

My observation on that run is I want to see the ULL slide underneath us around Ocean City MD.  I don't care for where the GFS has it placed.

Going to need to watch the behavior of the h7 AND h8 closed lows as well to determine where the heaviest axis of snowfall will fall and how and where the temp profiles behave.   Again a concerning trend has been as we enter inside the 72-96 hr window to have our southern system trend more amped sending these features over or slightly N&W of us shifting the snow axis N&W.  My typical phrase of Cautious optimism couldn't be more prudent here.

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went all MADONNE on us. Main difference from previous run is it's slower to develop thanks to a slightly more amplified western ridge and energy holding on the backside of the trough

My observation on that run is I want to see the ULL slide underneath us around Ocean City MD.  I don't care for where the GFS has it placed.

Going to need to watch the behavior of the h7 AND h8 closed lows as well to determine where the heaviest axis of snowfall will fall and how and where the temp profiles behave.   Again a concerning trend has been as we enter inside the 72-96 hr window to have our southern system trend more amped sending these features over or slightly N&W of us shifting the snow axis N&W.  My typical phrase of Cautious optimism couldn't be more prudent here.

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z NAVGEM just went Godzilla on us