November 2020 Observations and Discussion

Record lows past 24 hours in NE and record Highs out in the plains

Wet Turkey morning and early afternoonish

Lightly Snowing in Stillwater Nj at 1190 feet altitude! 39 degrees, but it’s snowing !

1190ftalt wrote:Lightly Snowing in Stillwater Nj at 1190 feet altitude! 39 degrees, but it’s snowing !

Thanks for sharing! I didn’t even notice...

A pretty mild week coming up ahead of a developing cold front. Of course the timing of this front couldn’t be any worse. It looks like it will pass on Thanksgiving. Expect to see rain that day. Doesn’t look too heavy, but still :/

After Thanksgiving, our eyes turn to December and maybe we can squeeze a winter storm into the pattern (see LR thread)

Potentially strong coastal storm to bring heavy rain and wind from Monday into Tuesday. Parts of the interior northeast could see snow, but all of us on this forum will see rain. Question will be how strong...some models have a dual phase of very strong pieces of northern and southern energy. Something to watch out for......

52* for my high with cloudy skies all day.

Pretty strong cutter next week


Phases into this

Happy thanksgiving to you and your family I know this is going to be a different thanksgiving but let’s make the best out of it we will get Through with this stay safe and happy thanksgiving

Happy thanksgiving weather fam! Have an amazing day

amugs wrote:Pretty strong cutter next week


Phases into this

Yup, there it is. Going to be intense.

Some models hinting at first accumulating snow for some (like me) next Thursday night into Friday. Nothing big but would be good to see a little December snow if it holds.

billg315 wrote:Some models hinting at first accumulating snow for some (like me) next Thursday night into Friday. Nothing big but would be good to see a little December snow if it holds.

There is a second stream trying to follow up after the big Monday cutter. I normally have low confidence in those follow up storms because it depends on what happens with the track and intensity of the primary low. We’ll see!!

Snow confidence index has been updated on the home page

Right now just 5% showing for December 6th. Models indicate another coastal storm is possible that day. The difference between that and upcoming Monday is the track of the low and colder air being around

Rain will start late Monday morning or early afternoon. It’s not looking as prolific as it did a couple of days ago. The secondary low is not forecasted to bring much of any rain. Looks like the primary low is taking all the energy this system has to offer.

Around 1” or less of rain expected. Winds will be howling at some points but nothing we can’t overcome.

The rest of the week looks like, will get mild again by Wednesday or so, then the December 5th-6th time frame we’re watching another storm system. This one is likely to drop more rain.

Woah. Upton is bullish on the potential wind coming in with Monday’s storm.

“Deep low pressure tracking west of the region will produce strong southerly winds Monday and Monday night. Depending on the ultimate track and intensity of the system, gusts of 50 to 70 mph will be possible, with the strongest winds across Long Island and eastern Connecticut.”

DEEP CUTTER here


Double LP as Frank said the one over the ocean off teh coast robs the primary and we are stuck in....wait for it.....SUBSIDENCE!!

amugs wrote:DEEP CUTTER here


Double LP as Frank said the one over the ocean off teh coast robs the primary and we are stuck in....wait for it.....SUBSIDENCE!!

Damn you Ohio

Big M class solar flare yesterday that would have likely been an X class had it been earth facing.

sroc4 wrote:Big M class solar flare yesterday that would have likely been an X class had it been earth facing.

Scott,
That would have knocked our grid out to the portion of the earth facing this flare - something we have been talking about for a few weeks here now.

I saw this last night before I went to bed and thank GOD it did not hit us!! peps are not ready for a solar flare of this magnitude. There ware two last week that were also not facing earth.

The cosmic rays that have been bombarding our planet these last 3 years are causing ozone layer/hole issues, magnetosphere is very weak. This is what protects our planet. Lastly the poleward shift is accelerating as they are going to head to the Indian Ocean and meet up in the next 50 years?? So what does this mean - it happened 12,000 years ago and caused massive natural disasters I mean biblical type - Krakatoa, Japanese earthquake of 2011, Great American Dustbowl, the Great Flood. Not being a scare monger but it has been proven through history time and time again.

From John Brandon's who interviewed hundreds of scientists who wrote a book on this:

Every few hundred thousand years, the Earth's north and south magnetic poles reverse, says Brandon. "When that happens, they can swirl around for a while before finding their new home. Or they might pick multiple spots on the planet."


Every few hundred thousand years? I think that number is far too conservative. As you know if you've read either of my books, I think the poles flip about every 11,500 years. Sometimes it's a full reversal, sometimes the pole moves south and then moves back fairly quickly. Sometimes it makes wild swings of up to 60 degrees before returning to its original position.

Great way to end Nov - moderate rain and 49*

overachiever imby. about 1.85" on the gauge so far with torrential rains at times. Temps topped out ~61. Very impressive.

Meanwhile Cleveland and other lake communities will rejoice in > 1' of snow.

Winds mighty impressive first report is out on nws lots of excess 60mph and thats without the main line just moving into jersey. Mostly shore areas but even just inland 45 to 55mph gusts.

Rediculous weather for almost December. Def no holiday mood. I read farmers almanac and there isn't one mention of snow entire season. All rain....