Long Range Discussions 21.0

PV Disturbance that equate sto what we are seeing next week so far, the orangy colors the propagate down to the surface are what is important on this chart

Sping is coming, models showing lots of rain, well at least down here, personally I am good, its all snirt and I got a ticket today for alternate side parking in which they did NOTHING but give tickets to EVRYONE. Never have they done alternate side when there is snow OTG.

This isn't a spring look sorry, TPV over this region and may send a good interior thump tjis weekend and as it lifts we can see something brewing midweek that maybe winters last stand. Keep an eye on this.

See the evolution next week - IF the Western ridge amplifies - spikes up a bit then we may have a couple of shots to end winter with a bang.

amugs wrote:See the evolution next week - IF the Western ridge amplifies - spikes up a bit then we may have a couple of shots to end winter with a bang.

That'd be great but I was smelling spring in the air today.

All eyes are upon you, Mugs. Deliver the goods.

So, is winter over? Not so fast

Yes, it generally looks milder over the two weeks.

But, eastern Pacific / South American convective forcing patterns (8-1) during March & maybe again in April could keep the chill close.

I wouldn't put the winter weather gear away just yet... pic.twitter.com/MaSg0mxt5t

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) February 25, 2021

GFS in camp with ECMWF guidance bringing intermittent periods of milder values bookended by additional snow and cold chances thru the first 10-12 days of March. pic.twitter.com/QoG8y7UcAV

— John Kassell (@wxkassell) February 25, 2021

End of next week time frame ingredients are there

dkodgis wrote:All eyes are upon you, Mugs.  Deliver the goods.

In Mugs we trust

I'll try my best peeps to get one more or two before we close this season out.
Next week - get this to go phase/connect up and we have a nice East Coast Storm.

amugs wrote:

GFS in camp with ECMWF guidance bringing intermittent periods of milder values bookended by additional snow and cold chances thru the first 10-12 days of March. pic.twitter.com/QoG8y7UcAV

— John Kassell (@wxkassell) February 25, 2021

End of next week time frame ingredients are there

Looking at ensembles again the March 5th-8th time frame is def something to watch.

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

GFS in camp with ECMWF guidance bringing intermittent periods of milder values bookended by additional snow and cold chances thru the first 10-12 days of March. pic.twitter.com/QoG8y7UcAV

— John Kassell (@wxkassell) February 25, 2021

End of next week time frame ingredients are there

Looking at ensembles again the March 5th-8th time frame is def something to watch.  

A friend of mine pays WeatherWorks for forecasts, they already warned him about a 20" snowstorm on the 5th!

Dunnzoo wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

GFS in camp with ECMWF guidance bringing intermittent periods of milder values bookended by additional snow and cold chances thru the first 10-12 days of March. pic.twitter.com/QoG8y7UcAV

— John Kassell (@wxkassell) February 25, 2021

End of next week time frame ingredients are there

Looking at ensembles again the March 5th-8th time frame is def something to watch.  

A friend of mine pays WeatherWorks for forecasts, they already warned him about a 20" snowstorm on the 5th!

So precise! lol

Very interesting look atm on the 12Z CMC for March 5th-6th. I like my chances with a 975mb low off the coats the first week of March, even if it shows mostly rain for now.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Very interesting look atm on the 12Z CMC for March 5th-6th. I like my chances with a 975mb low off the coats the first week of March, even if it shows mostly rain for now.

There is a +PNA spike in the ensemble means, combined with a negative NAO and possible favorable MJO phases.  If true this will lead to a significant storm to develop alog the coast somewhere.  Oobv the details of which, ie: precip types for who and where, will be ironed out in time.  But the storm signal for the time frame 5th-8th is def there..for now.

But this Sat and Sun looks like rain. Oh boy. flooding

Spring is a'coming oh yeah!

March 5th-8th:

Subtle but important differences regarding the Euro ensembles vs GFS ensembles.  The GEFS would be a much warmer soln to any storm that tries to develop during this time frame, because we would get modified Pac air with this look involved similar to the problems we were having in January, esp the first half.  However the euro(EPS) has a steeper ridge out west and a better position to the NAO ridge so there is a deeper cold air source involved.  It will be interesting to see how this evolves.  

From Peakbegger on another board.
MJO goes into favorable phases for snow n cold in March. Dont shoot the messengers but as I said to JMAN you are not washing out all tjis deep level arctic cold and snowpack overhead and to our NW and W like that. Beginning of March is a mix of moderate to cold days. IF tjis MJO does happen which VP 200 maps sayd so as of now winter will take a stand or have a good ending to the show ...maybe Grand??

Watch the 3/7 time frame. Ensembles hinting at a storm well to offshore with cold air in place. Not a strong threat at this time, but model error 8 days out is quite high, so let's see where it goes in the next three days or so.

EURO hinting at this and GFS is now too, blocking moving up in time - watch this period after an up and down  week upcoming.



Nice place to be 8 days out on the SE Biased GFS

Yep the gfs twins are very close. Actually the gfs 16 is a long Island special with clown map showing a foot of snow

A drop in the NAO and rise in the PNA definitely interesting around March 7. With a modest drop in NAO I would expect closer to BM track. Models won't have a reliable handle on this until 5 days out IMO.

It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?

dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?

I tried to warn ya, spring is on the way folks.

dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?

it's not warmth that is killing next weekend's threat, it's cold enough but models have trended weaker with the low and well to the south of our area. It then warms up after that and before you know it we are in the middle of March and the chances of snow become less likely.

Irish wrote:

dkodgis wrote:It looks like it is trending way warmer now and that will kill the chances for snow near the end of next week?

I tried to warn ya, spring is on the way folks.

Irish yes it is but you want warmth, 43 and rain is not warm. 53 and sun is warm tnis time of year yes. April not so much. March is always a volitale month and we will have cold and warm periods alike this.month. Models are hinting at another SSW to take affect mid month into early April.. if that happens and we get another NAO block or AO couplet and the MJO looking to go to 8 then 1 Spring gets put on hold. You have to let the pattern wash out. Time will tell.

From JB
East Based NAO and AK PV sits over it bottling up the cold

NAO slides down over Hudson Bay = colder, stormy weather possibilities. Now is there enough cold air for snow that remains to be seen. Old Farmer Almanac (or is it the regar one) is calling for EC blizzard 3rd week of March.